Well, this won't be as detailed as Monday night...mainly due to the fact that most every model has locked in to something close.
But, I want to detail somewhat what the models are showing, as far as our winter storm.
GFS: It's got the low EAST of the Appalachian Mountains. The 0c 850 line (remember from Monday that this is the freezing line at 5000 feet) is mostly along or SOUTH of the Ohio River. This indicates that at least the NW 2/3 of our area could see more snow than anything.
NAM: It's not quite in range. Low isn't so well defined, either.
UKMET (or United Kingdom Meteorological Office Model): It's too east. Low would track to near Baltimore and I just don't buy it. The Southeast Ridge is flat, but not THAT flat.
ECMWF: Garbage. Too far northwest for the pattern that is expected to be in place, which favors a track near or east of Cincinnati. Not buying it. It would be rain to very minor snow accumulation.
GGEM: Right over Cincinnati. Not favorable for heavy snow for Cincy proper, but it means a few inches on the back side.
JMA (Japanese Meteorological Agency): Haven't analyzed this in detail, but low over roughly, say, Paducah or maybe as far east as Evansville at 96 hours then one near Wilmington, DE at 120. Don't think it's the same low, possibly a coastal transfer and I'm not sure I buy it that far east. It'd give us rain to snow, several inches on back end. 500 thicknesses above 540 at 96 hours, crashing to 520-ish by 120 hours. HOWEVER, it could end up being a great setup - since the maps are in 24 hour increments, with a track over southern KY it could end up being a really good setup for somebody if not in the metro then just northwest of it.
BOTTOM LINE: It's still several days away. I want to see decent agreement before I make any calls as to snowfall amounts and/or icing potential (though the latter is becoming LESS likely). I expect everything to be fairly set in stone by Friday morning - at which point I can fine tune things and make a first call.
For now, however, the key points to know:
-- The storm currently looks to start as a mix or possibly plain rain, then switch over to snow late Saturday night or Sunday.
-- Winds will be a BIG problem...any location that gets heavy snow, WATCH OUT for potential blizzard conditions (which are NOT necessarily dependent on snow amounts).
-- Expect temperatures to CRASH, FAST Sunday. Could be in the lower 20s by evening and crashing to the single digits Monday morning!
-- SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE - It is too early to say where or how much - Monitor this space or the NKYWx Twitter page for information!
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Developing Situation: Potential MONSTER Snow This Weekend.
NOTE: All GFS images are obtained from the NCEP website at http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/.
I did say I wouldn't squawk about this until Wednesday - but I can't ignore the 0z GFS...
That model indicates a SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM for Cincinnati come this weekend.
Here's the model at 126 hours (Click to enlarge...this will be the case for all of the images to follow, too):
It depicts a low over Memphis, TN, measuring 996 millibars. Note the blue 0 line. That's the freezing level at about 5000 feet above earth. It's NORTH of us. Not precisely conducive to snow for Cincinnati, right? In fact this model indicates rain at this time.
At 132 hours:
Note that the low has tracked to Nashville, TN, but is still 996 millibars. The 0 line is just outside Cincinnati to the south. Remember, that line being south favors snow.
At 138 hours:
BULLSEYE. Notice the heaviest precipitation is DIRECTLY over Cincinnati. That would be 5-7.5" of snow in the previous 6 hours (from hour 132 to hour 138). The low has moved to roughly Bluefield, WV and has deepened to 992 millibars. Take note of the isobars (lines of equal pressure, which are labeled 992, 996, 1000, etc. on the map). Notice how tightly spaced they are...almost like a can of sardines, right? That indicates that winds will be strong out of the north. That 0 line is no problem - it's WAY south.
144 hours:
WOW. Look at the low, which in this image is now centered over southern PA. It's down to 984 millibars! That's strong...dropping 8 millibars over 6 hours. That, combined with the previous pressure drop from 996-992 means this storm is on its way to possible BOMBOGENESIS. The tri-state could still be seeing some light snow, up to an additional inch would accumulate.
I have to stop right here and answer a question likely on the mind of the reader. What is Bombogenesis? That is what happens when a storm experiences a rapid pressure drop of 24 millibars OR MORE in a 24 hour period. We went from 996 millibars to 984 millibars from 132 hours to 144 hours...so we're halfway there.
Just for kicks, let's look at 150 hours:
The low is now near Albany, NY...at 976 MILLIBARS! That's another 8 millibar pressure drop in six hours. Cincinnati is now out of any precipitation...but it's COLD.
And 156, just to see if we achieved a true meteorological "bomb":
Nope. We just missed it by 4 millibars. It's still 976 millibars, and has moved to the ME/Quebec border region. But...note that 0 line. WAYYYY down into FLORIDA. At this point, if any precipitation fell in, say, Jacksonville, or Atlanta...it'd be SNOW.
Now, a caution: We're still 5 days from the event. This is going to change. But right now...just know that a potential exists for SIGNIFICANT snowfall on Sunday that could impact your plans over the weekend, including any events you may plan to attend.
I did say I wouldn't squawk about this until Wednesday - but I can't ignore the 0z GFS...
That model indicates a SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM for Cincinnati come this weekend.
Here's the model at 126 hours (Click to enlarge...this will be the case for all of the images to follow, too):
It depicts a low over Memphis, TN, measuring 996 millibars. Note the blue 0 line. That's the freezing level at about 5000 feet above earth. It's NORTH of us. Not precisely conducive to snow for Cincinnati, right? In fact this model indicates rain at this time.
At 132 hours:
Note that the low has tracked to Nashville, TN, but is still 996 millibars. The 0 line is just outside Cincinnati to the south. Remember, that line being south favors snow.
At 138 hours:
BULLSEYE. Notice the heaviest precipitation is DIRECTLY over Cincinnati. That would be 5-7.5" of snow in the previous 6 hours (from hour 132 to hour 138). The low has moved to roughly Bluefield, WV and has deepened to 992 millibars. Take note of the isobars (lines of equal pressure, which are labeled 992, 996, 1000, etc. on the map). Notice how tightly spaced they are...almost like a can of sardines, right? That indicates that winds will be strong out of the north. That 0 line is no problem - it's WAY south.
144 hours:
WOW. Look at the low, which in this image is now centered over southern PA. It's down to 984 millibars! That's strong...dropping 8 millibars over 6 hours. That, combined with the previous pressure drop from 996-992 means this storm is on its way to possible BOMBOGENESIS. The tri-state could still be seeing some light snow, up to an additional inch would accumulate.
I have to stop right here and answer a question likely on the mind of the reader. What is Bombogenesis? That is what happens when a storm experiences a rapid pressure drop of 24 millibars OR MORE in a 24 hour period. We went from 996 millibars to 984 millibars from 132 hours to 144 hours...so we're halfway there.
Just for kicks, let's look at 150 hours:
The low is now near Albany, NY...at 976 MILLIBARS! That's another 8 millibar pressure drop in six hours. Cincinnati is now out of any precipitation...but it's COLD.
And 156, just to see if we achieved a true meteorological "bomb":
Nope. We just missed it by 4 millibars. It's still 976 millibars, and has moved to the ME/Quebec border region. But...note that 0 line. WAYYYY down into FLORIDA. At this point, if any precipitation fell in, say, Jacksonville, or Atlanta...it'd be SNOW.
Now, a caution: We're still 5 days from the event. This is going to change. But right now...just know that a potential exists for SIGNIFICANT snowfall on Sunday that could impact your plans over the weekend, including any events you may plan to attend.
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Dangerous Day Today Across Greater Cincinnati
4:30 AM - CVG: 65°, Overcast
HIGH WIND WARNING 10 AM TO 8 PM TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
Expect today to be a VERY DANGEROUS day across the Tri-State Area.
A HIGH WIND WARNING was issued just before 4 AM for the NWS Wilmington forecast area. The NWS says winds could gust upwards of 60 mph today, with damage likely.
As if that were not enough, we are also under a HIGH RISK (west) and MODERATE RISK (east) of severe thunderstorms today. The Storm Prediction Center says that a line of storms, currently to the west of St. Louis, will rake through the area around early afternoon. The line, and any storms that precede it, will be capable of any of the following:
-- Damaging winds, potentially upwards of 70 mph
-- Strong, potentially long-lived tornadoes
-- Hail upwards of 1" in diameter
Any storms should sweep east rapidly, and be gone by mid-evening. This front will usher in drier, cooler air - highs will not surpass 70 degrees after one final gasp tomorrow, at least for the next week, and possibly longer.
Because of the fluid situation, please follow me on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/NKYWx for the very latest updates all day long, including any damage reports I receive.
Also, if you have pictures of damage in your area, you may either tweet them to me, or send them to the email address to the right of this blog post.
~Jeremy Moses
Sunday, October 10, 2010
HIGH FIRE DANGER Sunday
3:45 AM CVG 53°, Fair Skies
Good Sunday Morning,
A heightened fire danger exists for Sunday across the Tri-State area, as low relative humidity, combined with the current Severe Drought we're experiencing and highs that could approach a record of 89 degrees create dangerous fire conditions. (Interesting fact: Yesterday at 3 PM, the relative humidity was at 13...yes THIRTEEN percent - dewpoints were in the middle 30's with temperatures around 86°! Comfortable, yes - but dangerous for fires.) Remember, a few weeks ago several fires started in Indiana and Kentucky and at times got out of control...luckily, they didn't do major damage.
That fire danger may persist for parts of Kentucky on Monday, particularly near and SOUTH of Interstate 64. For Cincinnati, a cooler air mass begins to settle in, and humidities should increase as well. Unfortunately, this cooler air mass won't have much in the way of precipitation with it, in fact little to none. Also unfortunately, we don't see massive changes for at least the next week...I wish I had better news on that front but it doesn't look like there's any change, anytime soon.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
One More Sunny, Hot Day - Then Stormy Thursday Night
5:55 AM CVG - 65°, Clear Skies
The heat that we've become accustomed to this summer (or so it seems) is back again today for one last stand. We'll hit a high of 88° under sunny skies.
Tonight will feature a chance of showers or storms sometime starting around 3:00 AM, with lows back down to around the 65° mark.
Things could get a bit hairy tomorrow. The computer models don't indicate a lot of instability, perhaps owing to the fact that we'll have rain around off and on much of the day. HOWEVER... the wind fields indicate 850 millibar (or 5000 foot AGL) level winds of around 64 mph, and 0-6 km shear around the same levels. The result would be severe thunderstorms, conditional on how unstable things get in the atmosphere and how warm we get, with winds being the primary threat.
Whether we get severe storms, we still may see wind gusts to 35 mph outside of any storms. This will be enough to inconvenience you if you're out walking so keep that in mind. (We'll update this situation tomorrow morning, especially if anything changes.) It should NOT, as it appears now, be enough to need a Wind Advisory, much less a High Wind Watch/Warning, but we'll keep our eyes on it. (The windstorm of 2008, which is just 2 years ago yesterday [9/14], should have taught meteorologists across the area to prepare for ANYTHING.) Only one model (the North American Mesoscale) has anything stronger right now.
After that, look for a MUCH better weekend. Even as a front develops to our north, high pressure to our south should keep it and its effects up there, and away from the Cincinnati Tri-State area.
Don't forget to follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/NKYWx
~Jeremy Moses
Sunday, July 25, 2010
One More Night of Heat - Storms Later
3:20 AM CVG: 82°, HEAT INDEX 87°
You're not mis-reading that above observation. At 3 AM Eastern Time Cincinnati is still above 80 degrees. Last night, if you recall, I said it didn't get below 80 until nearly 1 in the morning.
We'll probably stay near 80, or above, until sometime around 5-7 AM (the exception: If you get under a brief shower, you might just cool off a few degrees and drop below that 80 degree mark). Showers and storms will move in from the west and northwest. These are in association with what is really more of a "wind shift line" than a "cold front". Yes, the temperatures will drop behind this - but only for maybe a day. The main effect is that winds will go from the southwest to the northeast. Even that won't last as winds will quickly back around to the southeast again by Monday night into Tuesday.
Keep an eye on these storms today - they will have the potential of producing heavy rainfall and, if they are delayed for very long OR we get a break in activity, possibly being severe with damaging winds being the biggest threat. We'll have our eyes on the situation throughout the day.
~Jeremy Moses
@NKYWx on Twitter.com
You're not mis-reading that above observation. At 3 AM Eastern Time Cincinnati is still above 80 degrees. Last night, if you recall, I said it didn't get below 80 until nearly 1 in the morning.
We'll probably stay near 80, or above, until sometime around 5-7 AM (the exception: If you get under a brief shower, you might just cool off a few degrees and drop below that 80 degree mark). Showers and storms will move in from the west and northwest. These are in association with what is really more of a "wind shift line" than a "cold front". Yes, the temperatures will drop behind this - but only for maybe a day. The main effect is that winds will go from the southwest to the northeast. Even that won't last as winds will quickly back around to the southeast again by Monday night into Tuesday.
Keep an eye on these storms today - they will have the potential of producing heavy rainfall and, if they are delayed for very long OR we get a break in activity, possibly being severe with damaging winds being the biggest threat. We'll have our eyes on the situation throughout the day.
~Jeremy Moses
@NKYWx on Twitter.com
PS: There may be some confusion as to why an Excessive Heat Warning was issued by the Weather Service for Cincinnati and Dayton proper - but only Heat Advisories for the other counties of the warning area.
Here's the explanation. Wilmington's policy is as follows for Excessive Heat Warnings versus Heat Advisories:
Heat Advisory:
All Zones: When the heat index values range between 100-104 degrees.
Excessive Heat Warning:
Outside the cities of Cincinnati and Dayton: Anytime the heat index reaches past 105 degrees.
In Cincinnati and Dayton, specifically for Hamilton and Montgomery Counties: Either the above OR if heat index values of 100-104 persist for a second consecutive day or more.
As yesterday was the second day of 100-104 degree heat index values in Cincinnati and Dayton themselves, that triggered local Excessive Heat Warning criteria. Due to the criteria being more strict outside those two cities, a warning wasn't called. However I do have reports that a few areas *MAY* have breached those criteria a time or two.
Saturday, July 24, 2010
HEAT INDEX VALUES DANGEROUS AGAIN SATURDAY
4:35 AM CVG: 78°, Fair at 4 AM EDT
As you can see, the heat has become extremely oppressive across the area. We did not even drop out of the 80s until sometime close to 1 AM EDT!
This, combined with expected heat index values from 100-104° and temperatures close to 96°, has resulted in the National Weather Service issuing these advisories and warnings:
All Counties Outside Cities of Cincinnati and Dayton: HEAT ADVISORY 12 NOON TO 8 PM TODAY
As you can see, the heat has become extremely oppressive across the area. We did not even drop out of the 80s until sometime close to 1 AM EDT!
This, combined with expected heat index values from 100-104° and temperatures close to 96°, has resulted in the National Weather Service issuing these advisories and warnings:
All Counties Outside Cities of Cincinnati and Dayton: HEAT ADVISORY 12 NOON TO 8 PM TODAY
Hamilton and Montgomery Counties: EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING 12 NOON TO 8 PM TODAY
In the City of Cincinnati a HEAT EMERGENCY exists for today.
Tonight look for temperatures to drop only into the middle 70s, much like Friday night.
On Sunday, a front will move towards the Tri-State and you can look for showers and thunderstorms to dominate your Sunday. Currently the Storm Prediction Center has us in a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms. Stay tuned for more on that possibility.
After that, we will be only about ten degrees cooler but we will be less humid as well and that should help some for a couple days, even if we rise into the upper 80s we'll still only be in the upper 60s or lower 70s. (It's not a good thing when you're saying "ONLY" upper 60s or lower 70s.)
~Jeremy Moses
@NKYWx on Twitter
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
FLOODING PROBLEMS THIS EVENING
5:30 PM CVG 70°, T-Storm and Fog
FLASH FLOOD WARNING NORTHERN CAMPBELL AND KENTON COUNTIES UNTIL 5:45 PM
HEAT EMERGENCY CITY OF CINCINNATI WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY
Flash flooding has occurred across parts of Covington and Newport this afternoon. Cars have been submerged, roads closed, and basements flooded.
We remind you: PLEASE DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS!!! The water may be too deep to cross safely.
Flood problems could continue into the evening...but the good news is the rain has gotten a kick to the east and should end by about 9 PM everywhere.
What Happened
The reason for the flooding this afternoon is that a meso-low pressure system developed just east of downtown.
If you have monitored our Twitter account during severe weather you may sometimes read where I say a "mesocyclone" developed somewhere and you need to be taking cover.
Well, this is similar. However it wasn't a tight enough circulation that severe weather was imminent. It was large enough that the rain could rotate around it, and it did so...with the pivot point just east of Covington and Newport, somewhere in southwest Clermont and/or southeast Hamilton counties.
The result was what we call a "train" of heavy rain that more or less didn't move much until another trough of low pressure could kick the meso-low east - which happened shortly after 4:30 PM, which resulted in the flooding across Covington, Newport and Fort Thomas.
~Jeremy Moses
UPDATED 11:25 AM: Rain In the Area Now, Will Remain Rest of the Day
11:15 AM CVG 74ยบ, Rain, Fog
Rain will diminish in coverage tonight. Tomorrow looks HOT and a heat advisory could be issued by the National Weather Service office in Wilmington this afternoon.
~Jeremy Moses
UPDATE BELOW FOR HEAT EMERGENCY, FLOOD ADVISORY INFORMATION
Rain moved into the southwestern part of the area this morning and has spread northeast across the entire area.
We can expect rain, heavy at times, to impact the tri-state through the day, but NO SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated as of right now. However...flood problems could occur as a direct result of so much rain and in fact a FLOOD ADVISORY is in effect for Pike and Scioto Counties east of the Cincinnati metro until 12:45 PM. UPDATE 11:25 AM: A NEW FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ADAMS, BROWN AND HIGHLAND COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST OHIO UNTIL 3:15 PM EDT.
Rain moved into the southwestern part of the area this morning and has spread northeast across the entire area.
We can expect rain, heavy at times, to impact the tri-state through the day, but NO SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated as of right now. However...flood problems could occur as a direct result of so much rain and in fact a FLOOD ADVISORY is in effect for Pike and Scioto Counties east of the Cincinnati metro until 12:45 PM. UPDATE 11:25 AM: A NEW FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ADAMS, BROWN AND HIGHLAND COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST OHIO UNTIL 3:15 PM EDT.
Rain will diminish in coverage tonight. Tomorrow looks HOT and a heat advisory could be issued by the National Weather Service office in Wilmington this afternoon.
UPDATE 11:25 AM: A HEAT EMERGENCY has been issued by the City of Cincinnati for Wednesday through Friday as heat index values will easily exceed 95 degrees and may exceed 100 degrees.
NOTE: There are 5000 people without power in parts of Hamilton County right now. Please remember to treat intersections where the stoplights are out as a FOUR WAY STOP until further notice, and check on your neighbors who may have serious medical conditions that require the use of electricity to power any devices. It's unclear when power will be restored.
~Jeremy Moses
Monday, July 12, 2010
Not So Warm, But Could Be Wet
9:30 AM CVG: 73°, Cloudy
It was a very wet morning here in the Tri-State, and there was a Flash Flood Warning for Butler and Warren counties and points north before 8 AM.
We're drying out for now, however more storms could pop up at anytime this afternoon. The biggest threat from these storms will be heavy rain. However, one or two isolated severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.
More storms may pop tomorrow and Wednesday.
~Jeremy Moses
It was a very wet morning here in the Tri-State, and there was a Flash Flood Warning for Butler and Warren counties and points north before 8 AM.
We're drying out for now, however more storms could pop up at anytime this afternoon. The biggest threat from these storms will be heavy rain. However, one or two isolated severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.
More storms may pop tomorrow and Wednesday.
~Jeremy Moses
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
HOT, HOT, HOT
SMOG ALERT EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY - BOONE, BUTLER, CAMPBELL, CLERMONT, HAMILTON, KENTON, WARREN COUNTIES
HEAT EMERGENCY THROUGH FRIDAY - CITY OF CINCINNATI
4:00 PM CVG - 89°, Sunny to Partly Cloudy - many spots across the area at or above 90°
The heat is on, yet again, across the tri-state area. The city of Cincinnati has a Heat Emergency due to the extreme heat, and 25 cooling centers are open Monday through Friday.
We're looking at more of the same through Friday, so be sure you stay inside and out of the heat, especially if you're among those most sensitive to hot temperatures. Heat index values could approach 103° tomorrow and Thursday.
The next chance of rain is Thursday night and Friday, as a cold front finally will sweep in and take the worst of the heat and humidity east and out of the area.
Stay cool!
~Jeremy Moses
HEAT EMERGENCY THROUGH FRIDAY - CITY OF CINCINNATI
4:00 PM CVG - 89°, Sunny to Partly Cloudy - many spots across the area at or above 90°
The heat is on, yet again, across the tri-state area. The city of Cincinnati has a Heat Emergency due to the extreme heat, and 25 cooling centers are open Monday through Friday.
We're looking at more of the same through Friday, so be sure you stay inside and out of the heat, especially if you're among those most sensitive to hot temperatures. Heat index values could approach 103° tomorrow and Thursday.
The next chance of rain is Thursday night and Friday, as a cold front finally will sweep in and take the worst of the heat and humidity east and out of the area.
Stay cool!
~Jeremy Moses
Monday, June 21, 2010
Deja vu, Again...But Add Some Storms
HEAT EMERGENCY REMAINS IN EFFECT in the City of Cincinnati Through This Evening
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE
9:25 AM CVG 81° Mostly Sunny; Lunken 78° Fair; Hamilton 79° Fair; Wilmington 75° Fair
Today it looks pretty much like more of the same as yesterday. The HEAT EMERGENCY remains in effect, and may need extension as temperatures don't look to cool down anytime soon.
However, as we go through the afternoon, showers and storms should pop in some spots. Where they do form, one or two storms *MAY* be strong to severe; any storm could contain heavy rainfall with the moist airmass over our area, so keep this in mind if you live in a flood-prone area. Storms should mostly diminish after sunset.
More sunshine could lead to some storm development on Tuesday, as well. These would be scattered, diurnal (daytime fed) showers and storms, and would dissipate after sunset.
The best threat of rain appears to be late Wednesday into early Thursday.
~Jeremy Moses
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE
9:25 AM CVG 81° Mostly Sunny; Lunken 78° Fair; Hamilton 79° Fair; Wilmington 75° Fair
Today it looks pretty much like more of the same as yesterday. The HEAT EMERGENCY remains in effect, and may need extension as temperatures don't look to cool down anytime soon.
However, as we go through the afternoon, showers and storms should pop in some spots. Where they do form, one or two storms *MAY* be strong to severe; any storm could contain heavy rainfall with the moist airmass over our area, so keep this in mind if you live in a flood-prone area. Storms should mostly diminish after sunset.
More sunshine could lead to some storm development on Tuesday, as well. These would be scattered, diurnal (daytime fed) showers and storms, and would dissipate after sunset.
The best threat of rain appears to be late Wednesday into early Thursday.
~Jeremy Moses
Sunday, June 20, 2010
The Heat Is On Still...
HEAT EMERGENCY still in effect for the City of Cincinnati through Monday
5:30 AM (As of 5 AM observations) - CVG 69°, Fair; Lunken 66°, Fog; Hamilton 68°, Fair; Wilmington 65°, Fair
The heat stays on across the area, and the result of this is continued risk for heat illnesses to those who are most vulnerable to the hot temperatures. Heat index values of 95° or higher are possible today and Monday in the city of Cincinnati, and less likely across northern Kentucky.
As we go through the day today look for mostly sunny skies, but a few clouds could form across the area later. There is no chance for rain today. Temperatures should reach 90 degrees.
For tonight, don't look for much if any relief especially from the city south as we get down to the upper 60s.
Monday looks okay if you like sunshine and hot summertime temperatures. The first official full day of summer on Tuesday still looks hot, too. Both days do have some chance of showers and storms, particularly late in the day, and highs will be in the lower 90s. I'm calling for 92 on Monday and 93 on Tuesday. (The city of Cincinnati may have to extend the heat emergency beyond Monday, at least, as heat indices could EASILY reach 100 degrees Tuesday with dewpoints in the lower 70s!)
The next best chance of showers and storms is probably on Wednesday.
~Jeremy Moses
5:30 AM (As of 5 AM observations) - CVG 69°, Fair; Lunken 66°, Fog; Hamilton 68°, Fair; Wilmington 65°, Fair
The heat stays on across the area, and the result of this is continued risk for heat illnesses to those who are most vulnerable to the hot temperatures. Heat index values of 95° or higher are possible today and Monday in the city of Cincinnati, and less likely across northern Kentucky.
As we go through the day today look for mostly sunny skies, but a few clouds could form across the area later. There is no chance for rain today. Temperatures should reach 90 degrees.
For tonight, don't look for much if any relief especially from the city south as we get down to the upper 60s.
Monday looks okay if you like sunshine and hot summertime temperatures. The first official full day of summer on Tuesday still looks hot, too. Both days do have some chance of showers and storms, particularly late in the day, and highs will be in the lower 90s. I'm calling for 92 on Monday and 93 on Tuesday. (The city of Cincinnati may have to extend the heat emergency beyond Monday, at least, as heat indices could EASILY reach 100 degrees Tuesday with dewpoints in the lower 70s!)
The next best chance of showers and storms is probably on Wednesday.
~Jeremy Moses
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Same Song and Dance - AGAIN
6:45 AM CVG 67°, Fog/Mist
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE UNTIL 8:00 AM WEDNESDAY
Severe thunderstorms developed for yet another day across the area. This makes day four of severe weather or flash flooding being reported SOMEWHERE in Indiana, Ohio or Kentucky.
Well, today look for it to be day 5... I know you're getting tired of it, and believe me, I'm about as tired of reporting it.
Showers and storms could develop at anytime after 2-3 PM, and once more could become severe and/or contain heavy rainfall. I CANNOT rule out any type of severe weather, however, look for damaging winds to be the biggest threat.
Tonight WILL be the last night of it...as the cold front that's hung around for four days will FINALLY push off to the southeast and AWAY from the Cincinnati area - which will finally allow you and anybody else that had damage to assess such...including, sadly, the folks at Solid Rock Church. That is where the "Touchdown Jesus" statue you would see along I-75 near Monroe burned to the ground last night, and all that is left is the skeleton metal frame. Along with that, it appears their amphitheater was partially destroyed.
In any case, Wednesday looks much better with a high in the middle 80s.
Thursday and Friday look to remain dry, too with highs approaching 90. We won't see a cooldown anytime soon...or at least in the next 3-4 days. In fact, if the humidity goes up again, look for heat advisories to be needed possibly by the end of the weekend.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE UNTIL 8:00 AM WEDNESDAY
Severe thunderstorms developed for yet another day across the area. This makes day four of severe weather or flash flooding being reported SOMEWHERE in Indiana, Ohio or Kentucky.
Well, today look for it to be day 5... I know you're getting tired of it, and believe me, I'm about as tired of reporting it.
Showers and storms could develop at anytime after 2-3 PM, and once more could become severe and/or contain heavy rainfall. I CANNOT rule out any type of severe weather, however, look for damaging winds to be the biggest threat.
Tonight WILL be the last night of it...as the cold front that's hung around for four days will FINALLY push off to the southeast and AWAY from the Cincinnati area - which will finally allow you and anybody else that had damage to assess such...including, sadly, the folks at Solid Rock Church. That is where the "Touchdown Jesus" statue you would see along I-75 near Monroe burned to the ground last night, and all that is left is the skeleton metal frame. Along with that, it appears their amphitheater was partially destroyed.
In any case, Wednesday looks much better with a high in the middle 80s.
Thursday and Friday look to remain dry, too with highs approaching 90. We won't see a cooldown anytime soon...or at least in the next 3-4 days. In fact, if the humidity goes up again, look for heat advisories to be needed possibly by the end of the weekend.
Sunday, June 13, 2010
Flood Threat Continues Today
7:30 AM CVG: 70°, Partly Cloudy
Yet more flooding developed yesterday across the area:
-- Butler County reported water over parts of Cincinnati-Brookville Road; flooding in Ross, Morgan and parts of Hanover Townships; a water rescue in the 2600 block of Ross-Millville Road
-- Colerain Township in Hamilton County: Flooding along part of Blanchetta Street; flooding near Royal Glen Apartment Complex; several evacuations
-- Independence area, Kenton County: Flash flooding in the areas flooded Wednesday
-- Clermont County: A few homes flooded in New Richmond; Flooding near Felicity
-- Brown County: Bullskin Creek flooded again, causing Dunbar Road to close at the same spot where two boys were swept to their deaths. (Both bodies, sadly, have now been recovered: Justin Devercelly's body was found last night at Meldahl Dam.)
-- Dearborn County: Flooding was reported near St. Leon.
Today, the Tri-State could see still more rain it doesn't need on wet soil that can't hold anything else. Up to 1.5" of rain MAY fall today. Just this week, Cincinnati's airport has received almost 4" of rain! That's just since Wednesday morning! Some locations have received more than that - another 1.5" of rain would push a few locales to as much as 5" for the weekend! We're going to be watching carefully all afternoon. The National Weather Service may need to yet AGAIN issue a Flash Flood Watch later today.
Stay with twitter.com/NKYWx for the latest.
Yet more flooding developed yesterday across the area:
-- Butler County reported water over parts of Cincinnati-Brookville Road; flooding in Ross, Morgan and parts of Hanover Townships; a water rescue in the 2600 block of Ross-Millville Road
-- Colerain Township in Hamilton County: Flooding along part of Blanchetta Street; flooding near Royal Glen Apartment Complex; several evacuations
-- Independence area, Kenton County: Flash flooding in the areas flooded Wednesday
-- Clermont County: A few homes flooded in New Richmond; Flooding near Felicity
-- Brown County: Bullskin Creek flooded again, causing Dunbar Road to close at the same spot where two boys were swept to their deaths. (Both bodies, sadly, have now been recovered: Justin Devercelly's body was found last night at Meldahl Dam.)
-- Dearborn County: Flooding was reported near St. Leon.
Today, the Tri-State could see still more rain it doesn't need on wet soil that can't hold anything else. Up to 1.5" of rain MAY fall today. Just this week, Cincinnati's airport has received almost 4" of rain! That's just since Wednesday morning! Some locations have received more than that - another 1.5" of rain would push a few locales to as much as 5" for the weekend! We're going to be watching carefully all afternoon. The National Weather Service may need to yet AGAIN issue a Flash Flood Watch later today.
Stay with twitter.com/NKYWx for the latest.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Tragic News on That Brown County Search for Two
There is sad news to report on the search for two Brown County, Ohio boys.
One boy's body was found this morning around 11:00 AM, about 1.5 miles from the command post set up for the search. It's where the boys are thought to have entered the water.
Here's the story from Cincinnati CBS affiliate WKRC-TV 12.
One boy's body was found this morning around 11:00 AM, about 1.5 miles from the command post set up for the search. It's where the boys are thought to have entered the water.
Here's the story from Cincinnati CBS affiliate WKRC-TV 12.
A body found this morning near Smith's Landing in Brown County has been identified as 8 year-old Blake Devercelly.
Rescue crews recovered his body around 11:00 am in their search for two missing brothers along a rain swollen Bullskin Creek.
They were last seen heading down to check out the rising water in Brown County's Lewis Township Wednesday afternoon.
We're told the boys, 8 year-old Blake Devercelly and 11 year-old Justin Devercelly, went out to watch the creek rising, and that is the last time they were seen.
After resuming the search this morning, one body was found around 11:00 am about 1 1/2 miles from where the children disappeared.
The search continues for Justin.
Rescue workers searched by land and air for six hours Wednesday evening, but could not locate the boys.
The boys vanished near the creek along Dunbar Road. That's the south west portion of the county very near the Clermont County line. The boys are from Felicity, and were at their babysitter's house when they went to watch the rising creek.
Local 12 is at the search area and will closely monitor any new information on the rescue effort.
Flood Threat Update
6:00 PM: CVG 83°, Partly Cloudy, Heat Index 82°
Today was a VERY nice, sunny Thursday, after the rough Wednesday we had. (See the previous post for more details.)
Tonight expect clear skies and temperatures dropping into the lower 60s. It will be a great night for grilling out or any other activities you have planned.
For Friday, I expect clouds to increase and cannot rule out a few showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon. If we can destabilize the atmosphere enough then I cannot rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm or two. Our highs will reach the upper 80s and near 90 degrees.
The bigger, and more complex, problem comes Saturday. A vorticity maximum (in layman's terms, a disturbance in the atmosphere) will swing across the area. This could kick off more showers and storms; this is where the best threat for ANY severe thunderstorms across the Tri-State will be. Precipitable Water values of 1.75" to 2" are forecast by most of the computer forecast models - and that would result in flooding issues given what we saw yesterday, so keep that in mind if you live near a creek or stream, or in an area that flooded yesterday.
After that, it now looks as though we'll keep the threat of some showers or storms around into Monday, as we've seen that continuity I've been looking for in the computers - therefore we'll keep that chance around through Monday and then dry things out Tuesday except for the southern part of the forecast area.
-- Jeremy Moses
Today was a VERY nice, sunny Thursday, after the rough Wednesday we had. (See the previous post for more details.)
Tonight expect clear skies and temperatures dropping into the lower 60s. It will be a great night for grilling out or any other activities you have planned.
For Friday, I expect clouds to increase and cannot rule out a few showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon. If we can destabilize the atmosphere enough then I cannot rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm or two. Our highs will reach the upper 80s and near 90 degrees.
The bigger, and more complex, problem comes Saturday. A vorticity maximum (in layman's terms, a disturbance in the atmosphere) will swing across the area. This could kick off more showers and storms; this is where the best threat for ANY severe thunderstorms across the Tri-State will be. Precipitable Water values of 1.75" to 2" are forecast by most of the computer forecast models - and that would result in flooding issues given what we saw yesterday, so keep that in mind if you live near a creek or stream, or in an area that flooded yesterday.
After that, it now looks as though we'll keep the threat of some showers or storms around into Monday, as we've seen that continuity I've been looking for in the computers - therefore we'll keep that chance around through Monday and then dry things out Tuesday except for the southern part of the forecast area.
-- Jeremy Moses
Dry Today, More Humid Tomorrow, More Flash Flooding Ahead?
5:00 AM CVG: 64°, Fair
It was a WILD ride across northern Kentucky Wednesday afternoon. Here's a few reports received:
-- Flooding closed the left lane, both directions on I-75/71 at US 42 in Florence.
-- Flooding closed a portion of Zig Zag Road, just off Kentucky State Route 18, between Florence and Burlington and a water rescue occurred in that same area when Limaburg Creek rose out of its banks.
-- High water blocked portions of Turkeyfoot, Bristow, and Stevenson roads in Kenton County. Banklick Creek came out of its banks in Independence, KY.
-- Two boys were reportedly swept away and are feared drowned in Brown County when Bullskin Creek flooded Wednesday afternoon.
All of this, from 2 to four inches of rain in a four hour time span across areas from Western Ripley County, Indiana, across Dearborn County, through extreme northern Kentucky, into southern Clermont County and ultimately into Central Brown County.
Now, we watch the waters slowly recede...and now our attention turns to the very next storm to the west.
Until it arrives, expect warm weather. Highs today will be around 84° and lows tonight in the lower to middle 60s.
Friday, we'll already begin to see the effects of that next storm, as a warm front lifts northbound across our area Friday afternoon. Then, Saturday a disturbance will move very slowly across the Tri-State. The direct result of both the warm front on Friday, and the disturbance on Saturday points to showers and thunderstorms becoming likely especially Saturday. Due to the already saturated ground across the areas where yesterday's rain fell... I expect that flash flooding is a distinct possibility on Saturday. You'll need to stay with Tri-State Weather Watch here on Twitter at NKYWx for the latest. Our highs on Friday will approach the 90 degree mark! It'll be HOT and HUMID...so take it easy out there.
Either way, right now it looks like things clear out Sunday and we should be okay through Tuesday of next week...although yesterday's 0z European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model, or ECMWF, did want to keep things wet in that time frame. I'm not buying it and apparently neither is NWS Wilmington, so I'll keep things dry through that time period. If I see indications this weekend that things will change, I'll put rain in the forecast but right now, I see nothing past Saturday to worry about.
Jeremy Moses
It was a WILD ride across northern Kentucky Wednesday afternoon. Here's a few reports received:
-- Flooding closed the left lane, both directions on I-75/71 at US 42 in Florence.
-- Flooding closed a portion of Zig Zag Road, just off Kentucky State Route 18, between Florence and Burlington and a water rescue occurred in that same area when Limaburg Creek rose out of its banks.
-- High water blocked portions of Turkeyfoot, Bristow, and Stevenson roads in Kenton County. Banklick Creek came out of its banks in Independence, KY.
-- Two boys were reportedly swept away and are feared drowned in Brown County when Bullskin Creek flooded Wednesday afternoon.
All of this, from 2 to four inches of rain in a four hour time span across areas from Western Ripley County, Indiana, across Dearborn County, through extreme northern Kentucky, into southern Clermont County and ultimately into Central Brown County.
Now, we watch the waters slowly recede...and now our attention turns to the very next storm to the west.
Until it arrives, expect warm weather. Highs today will be around 84° and lows tonight in the lower to middle 60s.
Friday, we'll already begin to see the effects of that next storm, as a warm front lifts northbound across our area Friday afternoon. Then, Saturday a disturbance will move very slowly across the Tri-State. The direct result of both the warm front on Friday, and the disturbance on Saturday points to showers and thunderstorms becoming likely especially Saturday. Due to the already saturated ground across the areas where yesterday's rain fell... I expect that flash flooding is a distinct possibility on Saturday. You'll need to stay with Tri-State Weather Watch here on Twitter at NKYWx for the latest. Our highs on Friday will approach the 90 degree mark! It'll be HOT and HUMID...so take it easy out there.
Either way, right now it looks like things clear out Sunday and we should be okay through Tuesday of next week...although yesterday's 0z European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model, or ECMWF, did want to keep things wet in that time frame. I'm not buying it and apparently neither is NWS Wilmington, so I'll keep things dry through that time period. If I see indications this weekend that things will change, I'll put rain in the forecast but right now, I see nothing past Saturday to worry about.
Jeremy Moses
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
ALERT: Flooding Issues Across NKY
4:40 PM: CVG 71°, Light Rain, Thunder, Fog
Flooding problems are scattered across much of Northern Kentucky right now. I-75 at US 42 had the left lanes blocked both ways as of 4:30 PM...Kentucky Highway 18 was CLOSED at Zig Zag Road between Florence and Burlington due to high water...and Turkeyfoot Road was partially blocked due to high water in Kenton County.
For the next couple of hours expect heavy rain to move across southern Campbell and Clermont...central Brown...and north-central Adams Counties. This rain could drop an inch an hour, and cause flooding of low-lying areas. STAY ALERT AND STAY AWAY FROM FLOODWATERS.
Jeremy Moses
Flooding problems are scattered across much of Northern Kentucky right now. I-75 at US 42 had the left lanes blocked both ways as of 4:30 PM...Kentucky Highway 18 was CLOSED at Zig Zag Road between Florence and Burlington due to high water...and Turkeyfoot Road was partially blocked due to high water in Kenton County.
For the next couple of hours expect heavy rain to move across southern Campbell and Clermont...central Brown...and north-central Adams Counties. This rain could drop an inch an hour, and cause flooding of low-lying areas. STAY ALERT AND STAY AWAY FROM FLOODWATERS.
Jeremy Moses
Friday, May 21, 2010
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT This Afternoon
UPDATE 12:45 PM: The new outlook just came out from SPC, and now the ENTIRE tri-state is in the slight risk area.
Thunderstorms continue to develop and move across the area. We had some sunshine around 9:00 AM, which may have helped to destabilize the atmosphere above Cincinnati.
The result is that the Storm Prediction Center has placed areas from the metro WEST in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, and a Mesoscale Discussion just issued at the top of the hour says a weather watch may be needed for parts of the area. IF severe thunderstorms do pop up, damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats.
Stay with Twitter.com/NKYWx for the latest information all afternoon.
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Still More Storms On the Way
5:30 AM CVG: 56°, Fair
LICKING RIVER UPDATE
Falmouth: Estimated Crest at 33' this morning and will begin to fall off, getting back below the flood stage of 28' tonight
McKinneysburg: Crest was 38.3' yesterday - will begin to fall off today and back below 33' flood stage this evening
We're expecting sunshine this morning across the Cincinnati and Dayton areas, much like yesterday. However things could change drastically anytime after 3 PM and you should be alert.
Storms will pop this afternoon in the warm, moist and slightly unstable airmass over our area, and due to favorable conditions in the atmosphere over our area, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has placed areas NORTH of downtown in a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather. The primary threats appear to be damaging winds and some hail. Again - best threat is anytime after 3 PM this afternoon. If storms hold off late enough moving into the metro area, I can't rule out that the eastern forecast area sees just general rain as opposed to severe thunderstorms...but right now, I'm including EVERYONE in a threat for severe weather today. Highs of 85° seem to be the best bet today with the strong May sunshine.
After that, Thursday should be fine before a stronger front moves through Friday, and AGAIN the front will bring a risk of severe storms. It's still too early to predict specifics, but right now damaging winds and large hail, along with isolated tornadoes, are possible.
Follow me on Twitter at Twitter.com/NKYWx for the latest information on any storms that should develop this afternoon.
~Tri-State Weather Watch Meteorologist Jeremy Moses
LICKING RIVER UPDATE
Falmouth: Estimated Crest at 33' this morning and will begin to fall off, getting back below the flood stage of 28' tonight
McKinneysburg: Crest was 38.3' yesterday - will begin to fall off today and back below 33' flood stage this evening
We're expecting sunshine this morning across the Cincinnati and Dayton areas, much like yesterday. However things could change drastically anytime after 3 PM and you should be alert.
Storms will pop this afternoon in the warm, moist and slightly unstable airmass over our area, and due to favorable conditions in the atmosphere over our area, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has placed areas NORTH of downtown in a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather. The primary threats appear to be damaging winds and some hail. Again - best threat is anytime after 3 PM this afternoon. If storms hold off late enough moving into the metro area, I can't rule out that the eastern forecast area sees just general rain as opposed to severe thunderstorms...but right now, I'm including EVERYONE in a threat for severe weather today. Highs of 85° seem to be the best bet today with the strong May sunshine.
After that, Thursday should be fine before a stronger front moves through Friday, and AGAIN the front will bring a risk of severe storms. It's still too early to predict specifics, but right now damaging winds and large hail, along with isolated tornadoes, are possible.
Follow me on Twitter at Twitter.com/NKYWx for the latest information on any storms that should develop this afternoon.
~Tri-State Weather Watch Meteorologist Jeremy Moses
Friday, April 30, 2010
Heavy Rain, Severe Weather Becoming LIKELY
Midnight Saturday 5/1: CVG - 67ยบ, Mostly Cloudy
FLASH FLOOD WATCH 8 PM SATURDAY NIGHT TO 8 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE CINCINNATI AREA
This is a special midnight weather update. Updates will be sent out at 12 AM and 12 PM through Monday.
The current situation is beginning to look very dire across the Cincinnati metro area. Models are printing out staggering QPF amounts up to 6 inches for parts of our area from Saturday night through Monday morning! This WILL lead to flooding in some areas, especially those areas prone to flooding!
Meanwhile, severe weather is ALSO a growing concern. Currently, the situation does not look good. We've had an outbreak tonight across the south and midwest, and that looks like it could continue into tomorrow. That would be DISASTER for areas that were hit last week across the south.
Folks I'm not trying to falsely alarm ANYONE, but we are on the verge of perhaps repeating August 4, 2009 in some locations. If you're in locations which were flooded that day... expect to flood this weekend. PREPARE NOW. This includes Batesville and Louisville which were BOTH hard hit on that day. Get your valuables to higher ground and consider going there yourselves as well! Also, storm spotters should prepare to be activated as I would almost guarantee that activation of the SKYWARN networks will be needed!
FLASH FLOOD WATCH 8 PM SATURDAY NIGHT TO 8 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE CINCINNATI AREA
This is a special midnight weather update. Updates will be sent out at 12 AM and 12 PM through Monday.
The current situation is beginning to look very dire across the Cincinnati metro area. Models are printing out staggering QPF amounts up to 6 inches for parts of our area from Saturday night through Monday morning! This WILL lead to flooding in some areas, especially those areas prone to flooding!
Meanwhile, severe weather is ALSO a growing concern. Currently, the situation does not look good. We've had an outbreak tonight across the south and midwest, and that looks like it could continue into tomorrow. That would be DISASTER for areas that were hit last week across the south.
Folks I'm not trying to falsely alarm ANYONE, but we are on the verge of perhaps repeating August 4, 2009 in some locations. If you're in locations which were flooded that day... expect to flood this weekend. PREPARE NOW. This includes Batesville and Louisville which were BOTH hard hit on that day. Get your valuables to higher ground and consider going there yourselves as well! Also, storm spotters should prepare to be activated as I would almost guarantee that activation of the SKYWARN networks will be needed!
Thursday, April 29, 2010
One More Nice Day - Then Very Wet
9:10 PM CVG - 63ยบ, Partly Cloudy
The dry weather continued across the three state area today, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures that cracked the 72 degree mark.
Tomorrow will be a carbon copy of that for the Cincinnati area. We will see mostly sunny skies to begin, but then look for an increase in cloud cover by the end of the day and then really ramping up the clouds Friday night.
Saturday and Sunday do not look good at all. In fact the Storm Prediction Center has much of the Tri-State in a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather Saturday.
Our greater concern, however, is heavy rainfall. Current model runs indicate significant rainfall amounts across the entire area. As I tweeted earlier, IF the North American Mesoscale model were to pan out, it puts out AMAZING rainfall totals over a 72 hour period... those totals appeared to be around 5 inches OR MORE!
Do I think THAT amount will fall? No. As StormChaserNick as well as CincyWxPro point out, and I agree with both, the model appears to be suffering convective feedback - meaning it's picking up too much convective, or thunderstorm, activity for the area in the heaviest rainfall amounts. Consequently, it's way overdoing the precipitation.
HOWEVER - That leaves the question of just how much rain WILL fall. At present, I believe 1-2" of rainfall is LIKELY, with locally higher amounts.
The bottom line is, be ready. Flash flood watches have been issued by the National Weather Service offices to our south and southwest, and I do expect a watch will be needed here.
Stay with Tri-State Weather Watch for the absolute latest on the developing flood threat.
The dry weather continued across the three state area today, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures that cracked the 72 degree mark.
Tomorrow will be a carbon copy of that for the Cincinnati area. We will see mostly sunny skies to begin, but then look for an increase in cloud cover by the end of the day and then really ramping up the clouds Friday night.
Saturday and Sunday do not look good at all. In fact the Storm Prediction Center has much of the Tri-State in a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather Saturday.
Our greater concern, however, is heavy rainfall. Current model runs indicate significant rainfall amounts across the entire area. As I tweeted earlier, IF the North American Mesoscale model were to pan out, it puts out AMAZING rainfall totals over a 72 hour period... those totals appeared to be around 5 inches OR MORE!
Do I think THAT amount will fall? No. As StormChaserNick as well as CincyWxPro point out, and I agree with both, the model appears to be suffering convective feedback - meaning it's picking up too much convective, or thunderstorm, activity for the area in the heaviest rainfall amounts. Consequently, it's way overdoing the precipitation.
HOWEVER - That leaves the question of just how much rain WILL fall. At present, I believe 1-2" of rainfall is LIKELY, with locally higher amounts.
The bottom line is, be ready. Flash flood watches have been issued by the National Weather Service offices to our south and southwest, and I do expect a watch will be needed here.
Stay with Tri-State Weather Watch for the absolute latest on the developing flood threat.
Monday, April 5, 2010
TORNADO WATCH This Evening
6:45 PM CVG - 80ยบ, Clouds Moving In
NOTE: This update will not include forecasts for cities around our area due to the existing severe weather threat in the Cincinnati area.
A TORNADO WATCH has been issued for Cincinnati and points south and west until midnight tonight. We're seeing severe thunderstorms moving from southwest to northeast and they'll impact the metro before 9pm.
At this time, the main threat appears to be golf ball size hail and winds to 60 miles per hour or greater. There is however a threat of tornadoes.
Tomorrow looks a lot better as the stronger storms will move away and we should stay sunny most of the day with a high around 82ยบ - but I cannot rule out an instability shower or storm popping up later in the afternoon as we will be in the warm sector. If you've got outdoor plans tomorrow evening, keep that in mind.
The next chance of widespread rain happens Wednesday night through Thursday.
~J. Moses
NOTE: This update will not include forecasts for cities around our area due to the existing severe weather threat in the Cincinnati area.
A TORNADO WATCH has been issued for Cincinnati and points south and west until midnight tonight. We're seeing severe thunderstorms moving from southwest to northeast and they'll impact the metro before 9pm.
At this time, the main threat appears to be golf ball size hail and winds to 60 miles per hour or greater. There is however a threat of tornadoes.
Tomorrow looks a lot better as the stronger storms will move away and we should stay sunny most of the day with a high around 82ยบ - but I cannot rule out an instability shower or storm popping up later in the afternoon as we will be in the warm sector. If you've got outdoor plans tomorrow evening, keep that in mind.
The next chance of widespread rain happens Wednesday night through Thursday.
~J. Moses
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Dry Today, Wet Tomorrow
11:40 AM - CVG 64ยบ, Lunken 59ยบ, Hamilton 64ยบ, Wilmington 63ยบ - Partly Cloudy skies
It was not a bad Saturday across the metro area. Some locations, such as Hamilton, reported rain, and some spots never saw a drop of water.
Today will be a great day for Easter activities with high temperatures approaching 75ยบ.
Tonight should be okay to start but the clouds will be on the increase as lows drop near 55ยบ.
For Monday, it's going to be kind of wet. Last night's computer models did indicate that rain wouldn't be as much of a factor for the Opening Day matchup between the Reds and the Cardinals, but I'm keeping rain in the forecast at any time during the day as highs get up near 75ยบ again.
Tuesday looks better and warmer, as highs soar to 82ยบ.
FORECAST FOR CITIES AROUND OUR REGION: Columbus 72ยบ, Dayton 73ยบ, Cleveland 69ยบ, Toledo 70ยบ, Indianapolis 74ยบ, Terre Haute 76ยบ, Louisville 78ยบ, Lexington 77ยบ with partly cloudy skies today.
Happy Easter everyone,
~J. Moses
It was not a bad Saturday across the metro area. Some locations, such as Hamilton, reported rain, and some spots never saw a drop of water.
Today will be a great day for Easter activities with high temperatures approaching 75ยบ.
Tonight should be okay to start but the clouds will be on the increase as lows drop near 55ยบ.
For Monday, it's going to be kind of wet. Last night's computer models did indicate that rain wouldn't be as much of a factor for the Opening Day matchup between the Reds and the Cardinals, but I'm keeping rain in the forecast at any time during the day as highs get up near 75ยบ again.
Tuesday looks better and warmer, as highs soar to 82ยบ.
FORECAST FOR CITIES AROUND OUR REGION: Columbus 72ยบ, Dayton 73ยบ, Cleveland 69ยบ, Toledo 70ยบ, Indianapolis 74ยบ, Terre Haute 76ยบ, Louisville 78ยบ, Lexington 77ยบ with partly cloudy skies today.
Happy Easter everyone,
~J. Moses
Friday, April 2, 2010
Possibly Windy, Probably Wet, DEFINITELY Warm
9:15 PM CVG: 71ยบ Lunken: 66ยบ Hamilton: 65ยบ Wilmington: 66ยบ - Partly to Mostly Cloudy Skies across our area
Temperatures have been warm, almost hot across the area. We reached 82ยบ at the International Airport today.
Tonight, the clouds have increased a bit. We'll see that trend continue tomorrow across the entire area, after starting the day with some sunshine.
However that early sun has a price: We will see showers and some thunderstorms develop around town in the afternoon. Anytime after 1:00 PM keep an eye on the skies as rain may threaten you. It will not rain everywhere and it will not rain the entire afternoon and evening, but it will rain some places. (Note: I hope any of you in Cincinnati or surrounding suburbs will join me, along with Local 12 WKRC-TV anchor/reporter/traffic man Bob Herzog on Fountain Square downtown from 6-9 PM tomorrow night for Fountain Day. Cheap plug.)
The good news is Easter looks GREAT on Sunday, with sunny skies and highs between 70 and 75.
The news isn't so good on Monday: recent model trends have indicated that showers and storms will develop for the Tri-State in the afternoon - just in time for Opening Day of the Cincinnati Reds. We'll keep watching it, but be sure you have your rain poncho if you're going to the game or other Opening Day festivities.
After that things get a lot better on Tuesday.
FORECASTS FOR CITIES IN OUR AREA ON SATURDAY: Columbus 70ยบ, Dayton 70ยบ, Cleveland 65ยบ, Toledo 67ยบ, Indianapolis 68ยบ, Terre Haute 70ยบ, Louisville 72ยบ, Lexington 74ยบ with Scattered Showers and Storms, earlier WEST and later EAST, except Cleveland could remain rain-free until evening.
Temperatures have been warm, almost hot across the area. We reached 82ยบ at the International Airport today.
Tonight, the clouds have increased a bit. We'll see that trend continue tomorrow across the entire area, after starting the day with some sunshine.
However that early sun has a price: We will see showers and some thunderstorms develop around town in the afternoon. Anytime after 1:00 PM keep an eye on the skies as rain may threaten you. It will not rain everywhere and it will not rain the entire afternoon and evening, but it will rain some places. (Note: I hope any of you in Cincinnati or surrounding suburbs will join me, along with Local 12 WKRC-TV anchor/reporter/traffic man Bob Herzog on Fountain Square downtown from 6-9 PM tomorrow night for Fountain Day. Cheap plug.)
The good news is Easter looks GREAT on Sunday, with sunny skies and highs between 70 and 75.
The news isn't so good on Monday: recent model trends have indicated that showers and storms will develop for the Tri-State in the afternoon - just in time for Opening Day of the Cincinnati Reds. We'll keep watching it, but be sure you have your rain poncho if you're going to the game or other Opening Day festivities.
After that things get a lot better on Tuesday.
FORECASTS FOR CITIES IN OUR AREA ON SATURDAY: Columbus 70ยบ, Dayton 70ยบ, Cleveland 65ยบ, Toledo 67ยบ, Indianapolis 68ยบ, Terre Haute 70ยบ, Louisville 72ยบ, Lexington 74ยบ with Scattered Showers and Storms, earlier WEST and later EAST, except Cleveland could remain rain-free until evening.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Warm, Almost Record Warm!
3:00AM - CVG 60 degrees, Lunken 50 degrees, Hamilton 52 degrees
Our forecast is dry for the next 48 to 60 hours with very warm weather. Highs the next two days will reach 80 degrees or hotter! Yes we are using the word hot in the forecast! We'll be approaching records and I cannot rule out breaking records either Thursday or Friday!
Saturday looks fine during the day but there is a 40% chance of a shower or storm at night.
Easter Sunday looks fine as does Opening Day on Monday with highs in the 60's.
Enjoy the end of the week,
Jeremy Moses
- Don't forget to follow NKYWx on Twitter: http://twitter.com/NKYWx
- Forecasts for cities in the Ohio/Kentucky/Indiana three state area will return Friday evening.
Our forecast is dry for the next 48 to 60 hours with very warm weather. Highs the next two days will reach 80 degrees or hotter! Yes we are using the word hot in the forecast! We'll be approaching records and I cannot rule out breaking records either Thursday or Friday!
Saturday looks fine during the day but there is a 40% chance of a shower or storm at night.
Easter Sunday looks fine as does Opening Day on Monday with highs in the 60's.
Enjoy the end of the week,
Jeremy Moses
- Don't forget to follow NKYWx on Twitter: http://twitter.com/NKYWx
- Forecasts for cities in the Ohio/Kentucky/Indiana three state area will return Friday evening.
Friday, March 26, 2010
After the SNOW - Warmer, 70s Next Week!
2:00 PM - CVG 38ยบ, Wind Chill 32ยบ, Partly Cloudy
It was an interesting morning across Greater Cincinnati, as snow fell and our temperatures took a nosedive. We're nearly 20ยบ COLDER than where we were yesterday.
The evening hours will be cold, but the skies should remain clear as the temperature plummets to the upper 20s. I can't rule out 25ยบ in spots north of town that had 2" of snowfall, close to Dayton.
Tomorrow looks MUCH better as the highs will soar into the lower 60s under partly cloudy skies. Clouds will increase late in the day.
By Sunday it looks rather wet, and we can't rule out flash flooding... currently Flash Flood Guidance is 2" in a 12 hour period - if you get under heavier thunderstorms that is certainly a possibility. However, the storm is anticipated to move fairly quick - so the flood threat is rather low.
After that, an extended period of dry weather looks to settle in and our temperatures will respond, moving from 50s on Sunday to 70s possibly by Thursday.
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES IN OTHER CITIES: Cleveland: 50ยบ, Toledo: 50ยบ, Columbus: 57ยบ, Dayton: 59ยบ, Indianapolis: 61ยบ, Louisville: 63ยบ, Lexington: 64ยบ. Most areas partly cloudy.
It was an interesting morning across Greater Cincinnati, as snow fell and our temperatures took a nosedive. We're nearly 20ยบ COLDER than where we were yesterday.
The evening hours will be cold, but the skies should remain clear as the temperature plummets to the upper 20s. I can't rule out 25ยบ in spots north of town that had 2" of snowfall, close to Dayton.
Tomorrow looks MUCH better as the highs will soar into the lower 60s under partly cloudy skies. Clouds will increase late in the day.
By Sunday it looks rather wet, and we can't rule out flash flooding... currently Flash Flood Guidance is 2" in a 12 hour period - if you get under heavier thunderstorms that is certainly a possibility. However, the storm is anticipated to move fairly quick - so the flood threat is rather low.
After that, an extended period of dry weather looks to settle in and our temperatures will respond, moving from 50s on Sunday to 70s possibly by Thursday.
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES IN OTHER CITIES: Cleveland: 50ยบ, Toledo: 50ยบ, Columbus: 57ยบ, Dayton: 59ยบ, Indianapolis: 61ยบ, Louisville: 63ยบ, Lexington: 64ยบ. Most areas partly cloudy.
Monday, March 22, 2010
Rain Tonight, Dry but Cloudy Tuesday
5:00 PM CVG: 43ยบ, Cloudy - Light Rain being reported at other locations
It has been a cold, drippy day across the Cincinnati Tri-State area, and we never made it out of the 40s today under the clouds and rain.
Rain looks to continue, albeit scattered, off and on all night. If you're headed out this evening take the jacket, an umbrella and maybe a hat with you as we'll start to drop into the 30s this evening and bottom near 36ยบ.
Tomorrow, it looks like we finally shove the rain out of here but the clouds will hang tough in the morning. We'll make it to 55ยบ though as the clouds push away in the afternoon and we could break into some sun.
The rest of the workweek looks fairly average as far as temperatures go in March, but rain showers look to return Thursday and Friday.
Have a great Tuesday,
J. Moses
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IN OTHER LOCATIONS: Indianapolis - Clearing, 60ยบ; Columbus - Mostly Cloudy but slow clearing late, 55ยบ, Dayton - Mostly Cloudy, 54ยบ, Louisville - Clearing, 61ยบ, Lexington - Clearing, 58ยบ, Cleveland - Morning Rain Showers, then Cloudy, 47ยบ
It has been a cold, drippy day across the Cincinnati Tri-State area, and we never made it out of the 40s today under the clouds and rain.
Rain looks to continue, albeit scattered, off and on all night. If you're headed out this evening take the jacket, an umbrella and maybe a hat with you as we'll start to drop into the 30s this evening and bottom near 36ยบ.
Tomorrow, it looks like we finally shove the rain out of here but the clouds will hang tough in the morning. We'll make it to 55ยบ though as the clouds push away in the afternoon and we could break into some sun.
The rest of the workweek looks fairly average as far as temperatures go in March, but rain showers look to return Thursday and Friday.
Have a great Tuesday,
J. Moses
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IN OTHER LOCATIONS: Indianapolis - Clearing, 60ยบ; Columbus - Mostly Cloudy but slow clearing late, 55ยบ, Dayton - Mostly Cloudy, 54ยบ, Louisville - Clearing, 61ยบ, Lexington - Clearing, 58ยบ, Cleveland - Morning Rain Showers, then Cloudy, 47ยบ
Saturday, March 20, 2010
Warm, then Cold, then Warm again
4:50 PM CVG - 66ยบ, Mostly Cloudy (as of the 4 PM observation)
The warm weather sticks around for just one more day, although it will turn wet as the day goes on Sunday. Highs will be around 65ยบ.
Monday looks downright raw and rainy, and if you're headed out to Joseph-Beth to see Duane "Dog the Bounty Hunter" Chapman and get a book signed, take the jacket as temps will only reach 49 or so during the daytime, then fall through the 40s by 10 PM.
Tuesday however looks a lot better as we'll be near 60ยบ again.
SUNDAY FORECAST FOR OTHER LOCATIONS: Cleveland near 50ยบ, Indianapolis 58ยบ, Louisville 61ยบ, Lexington 63ยบ - Rain just about everywhere as the day goes on at some point... for Cleveland I can't rule out a snowflake mixing in Sunday night with no accumulations, but most locales should stay all rain.
~Jeremy Moses
The warm weather sticks around for just one more day, although it will turn wet as the day goes on Sunday. Highs will be around 65ยบ.
Monday looks downright raw and rainy, and if you're headed out to Joseph-Beth to see Duane "Dog the Bounty Hunter" Chapman and get a book signed, take the jacket as temps will only reach 49 or so during the daytime, then fall through the 40s by 10 PM.
Tuesday however looks a lot better as we'll be near 60ยบ again.
SUNDAY FORECAST FOR OTHER LOCATIONS: Cleveland near 50ยบ, Indianapolis 58ยบ, Louisville 61ยบ, Lexington 63ยบ - Rain just about everywhere as the day goes on at some point... for Cleveland I can't rule out a snowflake mixing in Sunday night with no accumulations, but most locales should stay all rain.
~Jeremy Moses
Thursday, March 4, 2010
Warming Up!
7:30 AM - CVG 26° Wind Chill 18°
Sunshine will be the rule of the day as the warmup continues and so does the snow melt from the snowiest February in Cincinnati history.
There will be even more sunshine over the next few days. Friday we head for 45° and Saturday looks like we make a run closer to 50°.
Sunday looks good also, although there's a slim chance we get a rain shower as we get into the 50's.
Even Monday looks really good, and I think we could make a run at...dare I say... 60°??? Yes it is possible with southerly winds ahead of the next storm system. This storm looks like it'll be just a rain maker, not snow, which is good news for those of us tired of the snow.
Have a great Thursday!
Sunday, February 14, 2010
BREAKING WEATHER NEWS: WINTER STORM WATCH EXPANDED
4:45 AM CVG 14° F, Wind Chill 6° F (as of the 4 AM observation)
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CINCINNATI AREA, NOW EXPANDED TO INCLUDE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM LATE TONIGHT TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT
The models came into even BETTER agreement late in the evening last night and the NWS has expanded the Winter Storm Watch.
All indications put the Tri-State area in a really good (or bad, depending on how you see it) spot for 5-8" of snow at LEAST with isolated higher totals if an area sits under a heavy band of snow for a period of time, and now expand the possibility northward to include folks along I-70.
Folks... this one will be a paralyzing storm for some areas. Normally you need a foot or more, but with the last three storms each dropping 4-8" across our area... we've already got over a foot on the ground some places! I am sounding the alarm here... most if not ALL schools will be closed, some roads will become out and out impassable, and level 3 snow emergencies will be more widespread. (In the last storm, Franklin and Ripley counties in southeast Indiana each declared level 3 snow emergencies at one point.)
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CINCINNATI AREA, NOW EXPANDED TO INCLUDE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM LATE TONIGHT TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT
The models came into even BETTER agreement late in the evening last night and the NWS has expanded the Winter Storm Watch.
All indications put the Tri-State area in a really good (or bad, depending on how you see it) spot for 5-8" of snow at LEAST with isolated higher totals if an area sits under a heavy band of snow for a period of time, and now expand the possibility northward to include folks along I-70.
Folks... this one will be a paralyzing storm for some areas. Normally you need a foot or more, but with the last three storms each dropping 4-8" across our area... we've already got over a foot on the ground some places! I am sounding the alarm here... most if not ALL schools will be closed, some roads will become out and out impassable, and level 3 snow emergencies will be more widespread. (In the last storm, Franklin and Ripley counties in southeast Indiana each declared level 3 snow emergencies at one point.)
Saturday, February 13, 2010
WINTER WEATHER ALERT: Snow Still On Track Tomorrow-Monday Night
4:10 PM CVG 27, Partly Cloudy
WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED BY NWS WILMINGTON, OH FOR ALL AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BROOKVILLE, IN TO WILMINGTON TO LOGAN, OHIO FROM SUNDAY EVENING TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT
The snow is still on track to hit the Cincinnati Tri-State beginning late Sunday afternoon and continuing all the way into Monday evening. Models finally have come into decent agreement, and almost all paint a 4-8" swath somewhere between the river and I-64, with less either side of that.
A 50-75 mile movement north or south could mean the difference between 4-8" and 2-4" or less... so keep it here for the latest.
WINTER WEATHER ALERT: Snow Possible Tomorrow Night/Monday
4:30 AM Saturday Morning - CVG 18° F, Light Snow Reported
Fog could be an issue across areas west of I-75 this morning. I am monitoring this situation extremely closely.
Yes, that's right... we're looking at yet ANOTHER winter storm in the Ohio Valley, with yet MORE snow accumulations.
Here's the setup: A small, compact low will organize west and southwest of Cincinnati tomorrow, down near Paducah, with a warm front across central Kentucky. The low is forecast to take a track across Kentucky on Sunday night into Monday. The models are differing as to how far north or south this will be... as a direct result differing on amount of liquid forecast, and as a result of this, we do not know how much snow will fall - and won't until Sunday morning.
The warm front may possibly be enough to bring at least a dusting of snowfall in the latter half of Sunday afternoon, but the main event is forecast to unfold Sunday night through Monday as the low takes its track across Kentucky, passing south of Cincinnati, somewhere within 40 miles of Lexington.
Due to the cold air at the upper levels... it will not take much moist air to produce significant snowfall across portions of Kentucky, far southern Ohio and extreme southeast Indiana. The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (or QPF) on at least one model indicated anywhere from a quarter to a half of an inch. Temperatures are forecast to be in the 20s through the event. The result will be a snow-to-liquid ratio of 15 inches snow to 1 inch liquid. With these ratios at .25"-.5" liquid QPF... expect anywhere around 4-7" of snow.
Folks...I cannot emphasize enough that this situation is very fluid as of the time of this post (4:20 AM Saturday). We do not know exactly where this low will track... so we do not know where the axis of heaviest snowfall will be. If you are anywhere between the Ohio River and Interstate 64 in the northern half of Kentucky, however... we can reasonably and confidently say there WILL be snowfall and it COULD be significant (4" or more)! Stay tuned, as I will update you on this VERY fluid weather situation. Updates will be between 2-4 PM Saturday, 2-4 AM Sunday morning and again between 2-3 PM Sunday afternoon, or as needed depending on what the models indicate.
-- Jeremy Moses
Fog could be an issue across areas west of I-75 this morning. I am monitoring this situation extremely closely.
Yes, that's right... we're looking at yet ANOTHER winter storm in the Ohio Valley, with yet MORE snow accumulations.
Here's the setup: A small, compact low will organize west and southwest of Cincinnati tomorrow, down near Paducah, with a warm front across central Kentucky. The low is forecast to take a track across Kentucky on Sunday night into Monday. The models are differing as to how far north or south this will be... as a direct result differing on amount of liquid forecast, and as a result of this, we do not know how much snow will fall - and won't until Sunday morning.
The warm front may possibly be enough to bring at least a dusting of snowfall in the latter half of Sunday afternoon, but the main event is forecast to unfold Sunday night through Monday as the low takes its track across Kentucky, passing south of Cincinnati, somewhere within 40 miles of Lexington.
Due to the cold air at the upper levels... it will not take much moist air to produce significant snowfall across portions of Kentucky, far southern Ohio and extreme southeast Indiana. The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (or QPF) on at least one model indicated anywhere from a quarter to a half of an inch. Temperatures are forecast to be in the 20s through the event. The result will be a snow-to-liquid ratio of 15 inches snow to 1 inch liquid. With these ratios at .25"-.5" liquid QPF... expect anywhere around 4-7" of snow.
Folks...I cannot emphasize enough that this situation is very fluid as of the time of this post (4:20 AM Saturday). We do not know exactly where this low will track... so we do not know where the axis of heaviest snowfall will be. If you are anywhere between the Ohio River and Interstate 64 in the northern half of Kentucky, however... we can reasonably and confidently say there WILL be snowfall and it COULD be significant (4" or more)! Stay tuned, as I will update you on this VERY fluid weather situation. Updates will be between 2-4 PM Saturday, 2-4 AM Sunday morning and again between 2-3 PM Sunday afternoon, or as needed depending on what the models indicate.
-- Jeremy Moses
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
WINTER STORM UPDATE: Snow Continues; Blowing/Drifting Occurring!
2:10 AM CVG 10° F, LIGHT SNOW, WINDS WEST @ 14 MPH G 21 MPH WIND CHILL -6°
WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ALL AREAS
WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ALL AREAS
The weather continues to be nasty across our area at this hour (2 AM). Snow is moving across the Tri-State area and will continue all morning.
I anticipate that 1-3" of snow will have fallen in addition to the 4-6" that fell yesterday across the area. Storm total accumulations between 5-9 inches are LIKELY with more further north and less south.
Winds will also cause blowing and drifting snow especially in open areas and along north/south roadways which will cause roads to become VERY hazardous.
Many school districts across Northern Kentucky (INCLUDING Boone, Kenton and Campbell County Schools) have already decided to close for a second straight day, as have most in Southeast Indiana. Find those lists on the website of your favorite local radio or television station.
Stay tuned for the latest.
Jeremy Moses
Monday, February 8, 2010
ALERT: WINTER STORM WATCH Tonight-Wednesday Afternoon, Upgrade LIKELY This Afternoon
A Winter Storm WATCH is in effect from 12 midnight tonight to 6 PM Wednesday for most of the NWS Wilmington, Ohio forecast area (excluding the far southeastern counties) and WILL BE UPGRADED later this afternoon...Winter Storm WARNINGS issued by Louisville, Indianapolis and Jackson, KY NWS offices as of 12:50 PM...
12:50 PM: CVG - 22 F (as of noon observation), Mostly Cloudy
Another significant winter storm...the second in the last 5 days...will impact the Ohio Valley tonight through Wednesday. A surface low down south will track from Louisiana up through Central Ohio by Tuesday afternoon. An upper low will track through the OV as well, moving across the Tri-State Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.
Models have been trending colder for the Cincinnati and Dayton areas and higher on snow amounts also. The 12Z guidance that just came in indicates a solid 6"+ of snowfall across the Cincinnati metro, and another 8"+ storm for Dayton. In fact at a 10 to 1 snow to liquid ratio the Global Forecast System model wants to put down 7" of snowfall at Cincinnati.
Consequently, here is what I expect total-wise:
North and Northwest of Cincinnati, including Dayton: 8-12", highest near and NORTH of Interstate 70
Cincinnati proper, including areas along and 30 mi N/S of line from Columbus, IN through Hillsboro, OH: 6-8". Could be minor mixing.
South and Southeast: 4-6", mixing is probably confined to areas far south and east.
12:50 PM: CVG - 22 F (as of noon observation), Mostly Cloudy
Another significant winter storm...the second in the last 5 days...will impact the Ohio Valley tonight through Wednesday. A surface low down south will track from Louisiana up through Central Ohio by Tuesday afternoon. An upper low will track through the OV as well, moving across the Tri-State Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.
Models have been trending colder for the Cincinnati and Dayton areas and higher on snow amounts also. The 12Z guidance that just came in indicates a solid 6"+ of snowfall across the Cincinnati metro, and another 8"+ storm for Dayton. In fact at a 10 to 1 snow to liquid ratio the Global Forecast System model wants to put down 7" of snowfall at Cincinnati.
Consequently, here is what I expect total-wise:
North and Northwest of Cincinnati, including Dayton: 8-12", highest near and NORTH of Interstate 70
Cincinnati proper, including areas along and 30 mi N/S of line from Columbus, IN through Hillsboro, OH: 6-8". Could be minor mixing.
South and Southeast: 4-6", mixing is probably confined to areas far south and east.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
WINTER STORM WARNING: Significant Snow On The Way!
10 PM: CVG 35 F, Overcast
WINTER STORM WARNING ALL AREAS 4 AM TOMORROW TO 6 PM SATURDAY
I'm keeping this short - as I'm preparing to head to Dayton, Ohio tomorrow.
Forecast is still on track as previously talked about. Low pressure currently near New Orleans will move up the east coast. At the same time we will see an inverted trough move through and a secondary low develops in the Tennessee Valley. Moisture will be thrown into this storm from both the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic at the same time. An upper level low will track directly over us, which will enhance things on Friday night especially.
Basically, the technical setup favors the following timeline:
2-6 AM: Precipitation moves in from south to north. It will be a mix of snow, sleet and maybe freezing rain - more in the way of snow to the north.
6 AM-6 PM: This will get tricky depending on where you are. If you're in the northern counties of the Cincinnati area and up to Dayton, you will continue to see more snow than anything else but still a mix of snow with first freezing rain and sleet, then rain. South of that, expect rain to mix in more and more the further south you go. If you're in the far southern counties, you could even go over to plain rain for a time.
6 PM Friday to 6 PM Saturday: Expect the changeover to all snow to occur in areas where it hasn't already. If you're north of Dayton you may be all snow through the entire event.
Total Accumulations:
Metro Area (or along and ~25 miles north and south of a Versailles to Hillsboro line): 4-7"
North suburbs to I-70: 5-9"
South of line from Vevay, Indiana to Augusta, Kentucky to Maysville, Kentucky: 2-5"
WINTER STORM WARNING ALL AREAS 4 AM TOMORROW TO 6 PM SATURDAY
I'm keeping this short - as I'm preparing to head to Dayton, Ohio tomorrow.
Forecast is still on track as previously talked about. Low pressure currently near New Orleans will move up the east coast. At the same time we will see an inverted trough move through and a secondary low develops in the Tennessee Valley. Moisture will be thrown into this storm from both the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic at the same time. An upper level low will track directly over us, which will enhance things on Friday night especially.
Basically, the technical setup favors the following timeline:
2-6 AM: Precipitation moves in from south to north. It will be a mix of snow, sleet and maybe freezing rain - more in the way of snow to the north.
6 AM-6 PM: This will get tricky depending on where you are. If you're in the northern counties of the Cincinnati area and up to Dayton, you will continue to see more snow than anything else but still a mix of snow with first freezing rain and sleet, then rain. South of that, expect rain to mix in more and more the further south you go. If you're in the far southern counties, you could even go over to plain rain for a time.
6 PM Friday to 6 PM Saturday: Expect the changeover to all snow to occur in areas where it hasn't already. If you're north of Dayton you may be all snow through the entire event.
Total Accumulations:
Metro Area (or along and ~25 miles north and south of a Versailles to Hillsboro line): 4-7"
North suburbs to I-70: 5-9"
South of line from Vevay, Indiana to Augusta, Kentucky to Maysville, Kentucky: 2-5"
I will be in Dayton Friday afternoon as I mentioned at the top of this post and will tweet from the NKYWx Twitter account all day with LIVE updates from there.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Confidence Increasing - SIGNIFICANT Winter Storm On the Way!
12:00 AM 2/3/10: CVG 35 F, Wind Chill 27 F
Hello everyone,
We're monitoring closely a MAJOR snow threat on the way to the Ohio/Kentucky/Indiana tri-state area. This has every bit of potential to be a 6"+ snowstorm.
Here's the setup: Currently, we're expecting an upper level low to track across the area, passing VERY near the metro area by Saturday morning. At the same time - a surface low will track across Kentucky. An 850 millibar level low will then stall the surface low over Kentucky. Assuming this occurs, there will be an Atlantic fetch of moisture over the mountains. Conventional wisdom would have you believe that fetch never makes it over the mountains - BUT conventional wisdom was proven wrong exactly 12 years ago tomorrow with the February 4-6, 1998 storm when a high out west actually helped bring the moisture further west. I expect the same setup COULD happen here.
Another low will pop out in NC and track up the east coast. There'll be an energy transfer there which could help or hurt us. And, the models want to bring a deformation zone behind the low here. IF that were to happen, that enhances the heavy snow and whoever is in that zone gets slammed.
Either way - I am calling for anywhere for 4-8 inches across most of the area - and the big winners could be to our northwest with 10"+ out toward Indianapolis. Somebody is going to see a foot out of this. If the low comes southeast a bit - that may be us. Stay tuned.
I'll do a more technical analysis tomorrow with more details...
Hello everyone,
We're monitoring closely a MAJOR snow threat on the way to the Ohio/Kentucky/Indiana tri-state area. This has every bit of potential to be a 6"+ snowstorm.
Here's the setup: Currently, we're expecting an upper level low to track across the area, passing VERY near the metro area by Saturday morning. At the same time - a surface low will track across Kentucky. An 850 millibar level low will then stall the surface low over Kentucky. Assuming this occurs, there will be an Atlantic fetch of moisture over the mountains. Conventional wisdom would have you believe that fetch never makes it over the mountains - BUT conventional wisdom was proven wrong exactly 12 years ago tomorrow with the February 4-6, 1998 storm when a high out west actually helped bring the moisture further west. I expect the same setup COULD happen here.
Another low will pop out in NC and track up the east coast. There'll be an energy transfer there which could help or hurt us. And, the models want to bring a deformation zone behind the low here. IF that were to happen, that enhances the heavy snow and whoever is in that zone gets slammed.
Either way - I am calling for anywhere for 4-8 inches across most of the area - and the big winners could be to our northwest with 10"+ out toward Indianapolis. Somebody is going to see a foot out of this. If the low comes southeast a bit - that may be us. Stay tuned.
I'll do a more technical analysis tomorrow with more details...
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Snow Threat All But Gone for Friday; Slick Morning Drive Today
5 AM Official Observation: CVG 34 F, Wind Chill 25 F
FLOOD ADVISORY Remains In Effect for the Ohio River
At Cincinnati: Crest Sat. AM at 50.9' - Flood Stage 52'
Maysville: Crest Fri Afternoon 48.9' - FS 50'
Meldahl Dam: Crest Fri Evening 48.4' - FS 51'
Portsmouth: Crest Tomorrow Morning 48' - FS 50'
The snow threat for tomorrow is basically gone even for the southern counties of the forecast area... even if snow should fall it will be an inch or less.
Meanwhile, this morning's snow has moved east but a cold front is racing east also and is expected to reach areas along I-71 by 8 or 9 AM this morning then be east of Portsmouth by 10 to 11 AM. Temperatures will fall as a result from the current 34 degrees down to the lower 20s by the end of the day... watch out for slick roads later today.
This weekend, we'll see temps colder than average, with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens or even upper single digits.
~Jeremy Moses
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Snow Threat Diminished, Still Possible on Friday
FLOOD ADVISORY ON THE OHIO RIVER
Crest at Cincinnati around 51.5 Ft. Saturday morning, Flood Stage is 52 Ft.
Crest at Maysville just below the 50 Ft. Flood Stage
Expect minor flooding along the river from the East End to near Portsmouth
There will be some sunshine this morning but the breaks in the clouds will fill in towards the afternoon and we'll reach the lower to middle 30s.
Tonight we expect snow to move through, it will not be a big deal accumulation-wise however there could be some slick spots in the early half of the morning drive tomorrow.
As it looks right now, the storm we're still tracking for Friday looks to slide south of the area, as such if it produces accumulation right now it'll be along and south of a Carrollton to Portsmouth line. We'll monitor it closely, as any shift north in the track will bring at the very least 1-2" accumulations to the metro - and enough of a shift could bring 5-9" or more to the area.
Monday, January 25, 2010
WEATHER CONCERN: Significant Winter Storm Late Week in Southern KY, MAYBE Here?
There's concern developing about a possible winter storm in the second half of this week. We knew the pattern had to reload before we plunged back into the deep freeze... we knew it would mean a big storm somewhere... and now we look to be near, maybe even IN, the crosshairs here across the Tri-State.
Currently, the models are forecasting a storm to come down from the northwest on Wednesday. This one will set the stage for the more significant storm from Thursday into the weekend. It could drop a quick 1-2" Wednesday night into early Thursday.
The BIG problem will come out of the southwest. A rather deep wave is being progged to move across the south on Thursday and Friday. The Global Forecast System model has been a little faster, and the European a bit slower. If you caught my tweets earlier today at the NKYWx Twitter page you know that the Euro showed temps at 5,000 feet below freezing and .52" of precip over the period from Friday morning to Sunday morning. At a ten inches snow to 1 inch liquid ratio, that's 5.2" of snow. Am I saying we're going to get 5.2" of snow? NO... but that's the raw output. HOWEVER... with cold air in place following Wednesday's cold front... the precipitation should be mostly or all snow... which should mean accumulations are possible. Our friend Derek Beasley, chief meteorologist for WPMI 15 out of Mobile, Alabama, says some models showed a foot possible across Kentucky south of Interstate 64! 1 foot of snow, for the uninitiated, could shut down Lexington or Louisville for at least a day - one only has to look back to March 2008 for the most recent 10"+ storm in Louisville itself. And we all know what that March '08 storm did here.
Again: We're NOT officially calling for a foot plus anywhere. But there's a real threat that SOMEBODY is going to get a foot and maybe more.
SHORT TERM: Sorry - we forgot to talk briefly about what's happening here in the next 36 hours. You can expect snow to move across the area tonight. Most locations will receive 1" or less - but that 1" will be tough to measure as it'll get blown around a bit. Beyond that, there could be more scattered activity tomorrow, and then tomorrow night it shuts off briefly before the aforementioned cold front Wednesday night.
Currently, the models are forecasting a storm to come down from the northwest on Wednesday. This one will set the stage for the more significant storm from Thursday into the weekend. It could drop a quick 1-2" Wednesday night into early Thursday.
The BIG problem will come out of the southwest. A rather deep wave is being progged to move across the south on Thursday and Friday. The Global Forecast System model has been a little faster, and the European a bit slower. If you caught my tweets earlier today at the NKYWx Twitter page you know that the Euro showed temps at 5,000 feet below freezing and .52" of precip over the period from Friday morning to Sunday morning. At a ten inches snow to 1 inch liquid ratio, that's 5.2" of snow. Am I saying we're going to get 5.2" of snow? NO... but that's the raw output. HOWEVER... with cold air in place following Wednesday's cold front... the precipitation should be mostly or all snow... which should mean accumulations are possible. Our friend Derek Beasley, chief meteorologist for WPMI 15 out of Mobile, Alabama, says some models showed a foot possible across Kentucky south of Interstate 64! 1 foot of snow, for the uninitiated, could shut down Lexington or Louisville for at least a day - one only has to look back to March 2008 for the most recent 10"+ storm in Louisville itself. And we all know what that March '08 storm did here.
Again: We're NOT officially calling for a foot plus anywhere. But there's a real threat that SOMEBODY is going to get a foot and maybe more.
SHORT TERM: Sorry - we forgot to talk briefly about what's happening here in the next 36 hours. You can expect snow to move across the area tonight. Most locations will receive 1" or less - but that 1" will be tough to measure as it'll get blown around a bit. Beyond that, there could be more scattered activity tomorrow, and then tomorrow night it shuts off briefly before the aforementioned cold front Wednesday night.
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY In Effect - 6 AM tomorrow to 6 AM Friday
4:40 PM: CVG 20 F Wind Chill of 14 F; Lunken 24 F Wind Chill 16 F
This is a brief post with some updated information and the forecast.
The National Weather Service has issued, as of 4 PM, a Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM tomorrow to 6 AM Friday. The Wilmington office of the NWS expects 3-5 inches of snow through that time period. They are basically using 24 hour criteria as the advisory is in effect for 24 hours.
However... I believe the snow will be heavier than is forecast by ILN, consequently I am going with total accumulations of 4-7" with isolated amounts of 8 inches.
Another thing ILN isn't putting in their advisory, and which I will add here, is that with the snow being dry and fluffy (20 to 1 average ratio looks good), there WILL be blowing and drifting snow in favored, open areas on Thursday evening.
This is a brief post with some updated information and the forecast.
The National Weather Service has issued, as of 4 PM, a Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM tomorrow to 6 AM Friday. The Wilmington office of the NWS expects 3-5 inches of snow through that time period. They are basically using 24 hour criteria as the advisory is in effect for 24 hours.
However... I believe the snow will be heavier than is forecast by ILN, consequently I am going with total accumulations of 4-7" with isolated amounts of 8 inches.
Another thing ILN isn't putting in their advisory, and which I will add here, is that with the snow being dry and fluffy (20 to 1 average ratio looks good), there WILL be blowing and drifting snow in favored, open areas on Thursday evening.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
A Brief Update: School Closings Galore, Still Tracking Thursday Threat
6:47 AM: CVG: 14 F, Wind Chill 0 F; Lunken: 16 F, WC 5 F; Hamilton 15 F, WC 5 F; Middletown 18 F, WC 6 F. Light Snow All Locations except Middletown
First: We do have LOTS of school closings and delays today. Check your favorite media outlet - there are WAY too many to list here!
Second: Light snow will continue this morning for much of the area. An additional 1" is possible.
Third: We continue tracking a significant accumulating snow for the day on Thursday. The latest models are painting between 4 and 7 inches of snowfall. We'll have a first call map this afternoon detailing what we expect for the area. Winter Storm Watches will likely be hoisted later today...
First: We do have LOTS of school closings and delays today. Check your favorite media outlet - there are WAY too many to list here!
Second: Light snow will continue this morning for much of the area. An additional 1" is possible.
Third: We continue tracking a significant accumulating snow for the day on Thursday. The latest models are painting between 4 and 7 inches of snowfall. We'll have a first call map this afternoon detailing what we expect for the area. Winter Storm Watches will likely be hoisted later today...
Monday, January 4, 2010
An Update For Thursday's Snow Event
We're backtracking a tiny bit... but snow is still LIKELY on Thursday.
The 0z runs last night... well, it didn't look good. They were drier and things were just not looking good.
But...the 12Z's came back, and are higher. The Canadian and European both indicate a surface low over Eastern Kentucky. The Canadian actually gives us possibly 6 inches or more. The Global does not, and as for the North American...it's still outside the NAM's range.
Because of the uncertainty, I'm going with an EARLY CALL of at LEAST 2-4" - with maybe more. We're not in the GFS' "Butter Zone" yet, indeed we're not even close - GFS doesn't usually lock in until within 48 hours. We will know more by around 2 PM tomorrow as to what it looks like. Again, the European and Canadian both show the surface low in E KY. The GFS does not... it's that surface low that would bring us significant snow.
The 0z runs last night... well, it didn't look good. They were drier and things were just not looking good.
But...the 12Z's came back, and are higher. The Canadian and European both indicate a surface low over Eastern Kentucky. The Canadian actually gives us possibly 6 inches or more. The Global does not, and as for the North American...it's still outside the NAM's range.
Because of the uncertainty, I'm going with an EARLY CALL of at LEAST 2-4" - with maybe more. We're not in the GFS' "Butter Zone" yet, indeed we're not even close - GFS doesn't usually lock in until within 48 hours. We will know more by around 2 PM tomorrow as to what it looks like. Again, the European and Canadian both show the surface low in E KY. The GFS does not... it's that surface low that would bring us significant snow.
Sunday, January 3, 2010
Updating the Snow Threats
We're still monitoring the threat for snowfall for tomorrow and Tuesday, and the bigger threat on Thursday into Friday.
First, the Monday/Tuesday threat...which looks like it's dried out a little bit. The 12Z NAM still has .1" of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, but it's not exactly clear on the placement with a sharp cut off and could be off a bit. GFS was basically the same but with even a bigger cutoff. In either case, I'm sticking with a 1-2" call with (possibly) isolated areas of 3", highest amounts to be north/east of metropolitan Cincinnati.
The last global model run (12Z GFS) showed the Thursday storm was drier, but it still looked to produce some decent snowfall. The 18Z seems to say (as Lester Rhoads would call it) "suppression city" and I do not buy that. With 20:1 or even 25:1 snowfall ratios, the GFS gives us between 2" (low end) and around 6 and a quarter inches (high end). Again, that's with 20-25:1 ratios. Bearing this in mind and the fact that the 18Z is far from reliable (uses 12Z's upper air data, not new data), I'm sticking with a moderate accumulation of snowfall for the Thursday-Friday event. Again that's at least 4" and possibly more.
Stay tuned for updates...
First, the Monday/Tuesday threat...which looks like it's dried out a little bit. The 12Z NAM still has .1" of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, but it's not exactly clear on the placement with a sharp cut off and could be off a bit. GFS was basically the same but with even a bigger cutoff. In either case, I'm sticking with a 1-2" call with (possibly) isolated areas of 3", highest amounts to be north/east of metropolitan Cincinnati.
The last global model run (12Z GFS) showed the Thursday storm was drier, but it still looked to produce some decent snowfall. The 18Z seems to say (as Lester Rhoads would call it) "suppression city" and I do not buy that. With 20:1 or even 25:1 snowfall ratios, the GFS gives us between 2" (low end) and around 6 and a quarter inches (high end). Again, that's with 20-25:1 ratios. Bearing this in mind and the fact that the 18Z is far from reliable (uses 12Z's upper air data, not new data), I'm sticking with a moderate accumulation of snowfall for the Thursday-Friday event. Again that's at least 4" and possibly more.
Stay tuned for updates...
Saturday, January 2, 2010
Concern Growing - 1-3" Possible Mon/Tues; Then Late Week Storm???
We've got two snow concerns this week... and the first is impending in the next 48-72 hours.
The 0Z Global Forecast model indicated several waves of low pressure moving across the area Monday and Tuesday. These waves may result in 1-3" of snow from Monday into Tuesday. The North American Model did not want to paint in that much, but itself indicates 1-2" of snowfall in the same timeframe.
Currently, I'm siding with the NAM, and going with 1-2" of snowfall. HOWEVER... if any of these waves is enhanced enough then some locales could see 3 to as much as 4" of snow. This will need to be monitored VERY closely... local meteorologists have missed this so far.
The next threat is on Thursday-Saturday. The GFS says a storm will dig to our south and then ride northeast. A couple of runs ago, it was saying, as Lester Rhoads sometimes calls it, that the storm was "suppression city". I don't buy into a "suppression city" solution. I don't think the high to the north would be handled well by the models, I think the models are underestimating QPF, and I think the cold will relax a bit ahead of the storm.
(UPDATE: The 0Z GFS has this storm suppressed again. Looks like the low tries to form near New Orleans and track out along the coast. I hesitate to buy this solution, but I will for now because it looks good for how far out we are. Per Trevor Cole, it looks to track NOLA > Freeport, FL > Nahunta, GA > Beaufort, VA then up the east coast. Again, for the time being, I will BUY this solution.)
Because of this, I can say with at least a bit of confidence that there will be a storm around the Thursday-Saturday timeframe. How much is up in the air...but we COULD see as much as 4" and, if the moist air gets involved from the Gulf of Mexico, POSSIBLY as much as 6-10 inches. This has time to be watched...but we can say there will most likely be SOMETHING in that Thursday to Saturday time period.
The 0Z Global Forecast model indicated several waves of low pressure moving across the area Monday and Tuesday. These waves may result in 1-3" of snow from Monday into Tuesday. The North American Model did not want to paint in that much, but itself indicates 1-2" of snowfall in the same timeframe.
Currently, I'm siding with the NAM, and going with 1-2" of snowfall. HOWEVER... if any of these waves is enhanced enough then some locales could see 3 to as much as 4" of snow. This will need to be monitored VERY closely... local meteorologists have missed this so far.
The next threat is on Thursday-Saturday. The GFS says a storm will dig to our south and then ride northeast. A couple of runs ago, it was saying, as Lester Rhoads sometimes calls it, that the storm was "suppression city". I don't buy into a "suppression city" solution. I don't think the high to the north would be handled well by the models, I think the models are underestimating QPF, and I think the cold will relax a bit ahead of the storm.
(UPDATE: The 0Z GFS has this storm suppressed again. Looks like the low tries to form near New Orleans and track out along the coast. I hesitate to buy this solution, but I will for now because it looks good for how far out we are. Per Trevor Cole, it looks to track NOLA > Freeport, FL > Nahunta, GA > Beaufort, VA then up the east coast. Again, for the time being, I will BUY this solution.)
Because of this, I can say with at least a bit of confidence that there will be a storm around the Thursday-Saturday timeframe. How much is up in the air...but we COULD see as much as 4" and, if the moist air gets involved from the Gulf of Mexico, POSSIBLY as much as 6-10 inches. This has time to be watched...but we can say there will most likely be SOMETHING in that Thursday to Saturday time period.
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