We're still monitoring the threat for snowfall for tomorrow and Tuesday, and the bigger threat on Thursday into Friday.
First, the Monday/Tuesday threat...which looks like it's dried out a little bit. The 12Z NAM still has .1" of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, but it's not exactly clear on the placement with a sharp cut off and could be off a bit. GFS was basically the same but with even a bigger cutoff. In either case, I'm sticking with a 1-2" call with (possibly) isolated areas of 3", highest amounts to be north/east of metropolitan Cincinnati.
The last global model run (12Z GFS) showed the Thursday storm was drier, but it still looked to produce some decent snowfall. The 18Z seems to say (as Lester Rhoads would call it) "suppression city" and I do not buy that. With 20:1 or even 25:1 snowfall ratios, the GFS gives us between 2" (low end) and around 6 and a quarter inches (high end). Again, that's with 20-25:1 ratios. Bearing this in mind and the fact that the 18Z is far from reliable (uses 12Z's upper air data, not new data), I'm sticking with a moderate accumulation of snowfall for the Thursday-Friday event. Again that's at least 4" and possibly more.
Stay tuned for updates...
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