Snow Threat All But Gone for Friday; Slick Morning Drive Today

5 AM Official Observation: CVG 34 F, Wind Chill 25 F

FLOOD ADVISORY Remains In Effect for the Ohio River

At Cincinnati: Crest Sat. AM at 50.9' - Flood Stage 52'

Maysville: Crest Fri Afternoon 48.9' - FS 50'

Meldahl Dam: Crest Fri Evening 48.4' - FS 51'

Portsmouth: Crest Tomorrow Morning 48' - FS 50'

The snow threat for tomorrow is basically gone even for the southern counties of the forecast area... even if snow should fall it will be an inch or less.

Meanwhile, this morning's snow has moved east but a cold front is racing east also and is expected to reach areas along I-71 by 8 or 9 AM this morning then be east of Portsmouth by 10 to 11 AM. Temperatures will fall as a result from the current 34 degrees down to the lower 20s by the end of the day... watch out for slick roads later today.

This weekend, we'll see temps colder than average, with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens or even upper single digits.

~Jeremy Moses

Snow Threat Diminished, Still Possible on Friday

FLOOD ADVISORY ON THE OHIO RIVER

Crest at Cincinnati around 51.5 Ft. Saturday morning, Flood Stage is 52 Ft.

Crest at Maysville just below the 50 Ft. Flood Stage

Expect minor flooding along the river from the East End to near Portsmouth

9:35 AM - CVG 22 F, Wind Chill 14 F

There will be some sunshine this morning but the breaks in the clouds will fill in towards the afternoon and we'll reach the lower to middle 30s.

Tonight we expect snow to move through, it will not be a big deal accumulation-wise however there could be some slick spots in the early half of the morning drive tomorrow.

As it looks right now, the storm we're still tracking for Friday looks to slide south of the area, as such if it produces accumulation right now it'll be along and south of a Carrollton to Portsmouth line. We'll monitor it closely, as any shift north in the track will bring at the very least 1-2" accumulations to the metro - and enough of a shift could bring 5-9" or more to the area.

WEATHER CONCERN: Significant Winter Storm Late Week in Southern KY, MAYBE Here?

There's concern developing about a possible winter storm in the second half of this week. We knew the pattern had to reload before we plunged back into the deep freeze... we knew it would mean a big storm somewhere... and now we look to be near, maybe even IN, the crosshairs here across the Tri-State.

Currently, the models are forecasting a storm to come down from the northwest on Wednesday. This one will set the stage for the more significant storm from Thursday into the weekend. It could drop a quick 1-2" Wednesday night into early Thursday.

The BIG problem will come out of the southwest. A rather deep wave is being progged to move across the south on Thursday and Friday. The Global Forecast System model has been a little faster, and the European a bit slower. If you caught my tweets earlier today at the NKYWx Twitter page you know that the Euro showed temps at 5,000 feet below freezing and .52" of precip over the period from Friday morning to Sunday morning. At a ten inches snow to 1 inch liquid ratio, that's 5.2" of snow. Am I saying we're going to get 5.2" of snow? NO... but that's the raw output. HOWEVER... with cold air in place following Wednesday's cold front... the precipitation should be mostly or all snow... which should mean accumulations are possible. Our friend Derek Beasley, chief meteorologist for WPMI 15 out of Mobile, Alabama, says some models showed a foot possible across Kentucky south of Interstate 64! 1 foot of snow, for the uninitiated, could shut down Lexington or Louisville for at least a day - one only has to look back to March 2008 for the most recent 10"+ storm in Louisville itself. And we all know what that March '08 storm did here.

Again: We're NOT officially calling for a foot plus anywhere. But there's a real threat that SOMEBODY is going to get a foot and maybe more.

SHORT TERM: Sorry - we forgot to talk briefly about what's happening here in the next 36 hours. You can expect snow to move across the area tonight. Most locations will receive 1" or less - but that 1" will be tough to measure as it'll get blown around a bit. Beyond that, there could be more scattered activity tomorrow, and then tomorrow night it shuts off briefly before the aforementioned cold front Wednesday night.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY In Effect - 6 AM tomorrow to 6 AM Friday

4:40 PM: CVG 20 F Wind Chill of 14 F; Lunken 24 F Wind Chill 16 F

This is a brief post with some updated information and the forecast.

The National Weather Service has issued, as of 4 PM, a Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM tomorrow to 6 AM Friday. The Wilmington office of the NWS expects 3-5 inches of snow through that time period. They are basically using 24 hour criteria as the advisory is in effect for 24 hours.

However... I believe the snow will be heavier than is forecast by ILN, consequently I am going with total accumulations of 4-7" with isolated amounts of 8 inches.

Another thing ILN isn't putting in their advisory, and which I will add here, is that with the snow being dry and fluffy (20 to 1 average ratio looks good), there WILL be blowing and drifting snow in favored, open areas on Thursday evening.

A Brief Update: School Closings Galore, Still Tracking Thursday Threat

6:47 AM: CVG: 14 F, Wind Chill 0 F; Lunken: 16 F, WC 5 F; Hamilton 15 F, WC 5 F; Middletown 18 F, WC 6 F. Light Snow All Locations except Middletown

First: We do have LOTS of school closings and delays today. Check your favorite media outlet - there are WAY too many to list here!

Second: Light snow will continue this morning for much of the area. An additional 1" is possible.

Third: We continue tracking a significant accumulating snow for the day on Thursday. The latest models are painting between 4 and 7 inches of snowfall. We'll have a first call map this afternoon detailing what we expect for the area. Winter Storm Watches will likely be hoisted later today...

An Update For Thursday's Snow Event

We're backtracking a tiny bit... but snow is still LIKELY on Thursday.

The 0z runs last night... well, it didn't look good. They were drier and things were just not looking good.

But...the 12Z's came back, and are higher. The Canadian and European both indicate a surface low over Eastern Kentucky. The Canadian actually gives us possibly 6 inches or more. The Global does not, and as for the North American...it's still outside the NAM's range.

Because of the uncertainty, I'm going with an EARLY CALL of at LEAST 2-4" - with maybe more. We're not in the GFS' "Butter Zone" yet, indeed we're not even close - GFS doesn't usually lock in until within 48 hours. We will know more by around 2 PM tomorrow as to what it looks like. Again, the European and Canadian both show the surface low in E KY. The GFS does not... it's that surface low that would bring us significant snow.

Updating the Snow Threats

We're still monitoring the threat for snowfall for tomorrow and Tuesday, and the bigger threat on Thursday into Friday.

First, the Monday/Tuesday threat...which looks like it's dried out a little bit. The 12Z NAM still has .1" of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, but it's not exactly clear on the placement with a sharp cut off and could be off a bit. GFS was basically the same but with even a bigger cutoff. In either case, I'm sticking with a 1-2" call with (possibly) isolated areas of 3", highest amounts to be north/east of metropolitan Cincinnati.

The last global model run (12Z GFS) showed the Thursday storm was drier, but it still looked to produce some decent snowfall. The 18Z seems to say (as Lester Rhoads would call it) "suppression city" and I do not buy that. With 20:1 or even 25:1 snowfall ratios, the GFS gives us between 2" (low end) and around 6 and a quarter inches (high end). Again, that's with 20-25:1 ratios. Bearing this in mind and the fact that the 18Z is far from reliable (uses 12Z's upper air data, not new data), I'm sticking with a moderate accumulation of snowfall for the Thursday-Friday event. Again that's at least 4" and possibly more.

Stay tuned for updates...

Concern Growing - 1-3" Possible Mon/Tues; Then Late Week Storm???

We've got two snow concerns this week... and the first is impending in the next 48-72 hours.

The 0Z Global Forecast model indicated several waves of low pressure moving across the area Monday and Tuesday. These waves may result in 1-3" of snow from Monday into Tuesday. The North American Model did not want to paint in that much, but itself indicates 1-2" of snowfall in the same timeframe.

Currently, I'm siding with the NAM, and going with 1-2" of snowfall. HOWEVER... if any of these waves is enhanced enough then some locales could see 3 to as much as 4" of snow. This will need to be monitored VERY closely... local meteorologists have missed this so far.

The next threat is on Thursday-Saturday. The GFS says a storm will dig to our south and then ride northeast. A couple of runs ago, it was saying, as Lester Rhoads sometimes calls it, that the storm was "suppression city". I don't buy into a "suppression city" solution. I don't think the high to the north would be handled well by the models, I think the models are underestimating QPF, and I think the cold will relax a bit ahead of the storm.

(UPDATE: The 0Z GFS has this storm suppressed again. Looks like the low tries to form near New Orleans and track out along the coast. I hesitate to buy this solution, but I will for now because it looks good for how far out we are. Per Trevor Cole, it looks to track NOLA > Freeport, FL > Nahunta, GA > Beaufort, VA then up the east coast. Again, for the time being, I will BUY this solution.)

Because of this, I can say with at least a bit of confidence that there will be a storm around the Thursday-Saturday timeframe. How much is up in the air...but we COULD see as much as 4" and, if the moist air gets involved from the Gulf of Mexico, POSSIBLY as much as 6-10 inches. This has time to be watched...but we can say there will most likely be SOMETHING in that Thursday to Saturday time period.