We've got two snow concerns this week... and the first is impending in the next 48-72 hours.
The 0Z Global Forecast model indicated several waves of low pressure moving across the area Monday and Tuesday. These waves may result in 1-3" of snow from Monday into Tuesday. The North American Model did not want to paint in that much, but itself indicates 1-2" of snowfall in the same timeframe.
Currently, I'm siding with the NAM, and going with 1-2" of snowfall. HOWEVER... if any of these waves is enhanced enough then some locales could see 3 to as much as 4" of snow. This will need to be monitored VERY closely... local meteorologists have missed this so far.
The next threat is on Thursday-Saturday. The GFS says a storm will dig to our south and then ride northeast. A couple of runs ago, it was saying, as Lester Rhoads sometimes calls it, that the storm was "suppression city". I don't buy into a "suppression city" solution. I don't think the high to the north would be handled well by the models, I think the models are underestimating QPF, and I think the cold will relax a bit ahead of the storm.
(UPDATE: The 0Z GFS has this storm suppressed again. Looks like the low tries to form near New Orleans and track out along the coast. I hesitate to buy this solution, but I will for now because it looks good for how far out we are. Per Trevor Cole, it looks to track NOLA > Freeport, FL > Nahunta, GA > Beaufort, VA then up the east coast. Again, for the time being, I will BUY this solution.)
Because of this, I can say with at least a bit of confidence that there will be a storm around the Thursday-Saturday timeframe. How much is up in the air...but we COULD see as much as 4" and, if the moist air gets involved from the Gulf of Mexico, POSSIBLY as much as 6-10 inches. This has time to be watched...but we can say there will most likely be SOMETHING in that Thursday to Saturday time period.
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