As you know, we've been monitoring very closely the winter storm situation for the Cincinnati area for this weekend. I can now say with HIGH CONFIDENCE that the Tri-State will experience its first significant snowfall of the winter of 2009/2010.
The Setup: A shortwave came ashore across western Canada Thursday morning. It will drop south then shoot to the east, and it looks to come directly over the Tri-State. At the same time...a low is developing down in the Gulf of Mexico, and that is going to be moving northeast. I look for the eastern low to throw moisture back towards the western shortwave as both systems look to at least attempt to phase or come together across western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. Models have been taking the east coast storm more and more west. Folks...right now, a 50 MILE move one direction or another will make a HUGE difference between 2-4" and a whole lot more or quite a bit less. IF everything came together, by the way, the North American and Global Forecast models are painting HUGE totals from North Carolina all the way up possibly as far north as Boston! (North American in particular screamed game on for the entire Interstate 95 corridor in the northeast!) After that, another quick hit of snow looks to come Sunday night into Monday and we may get a quick inch or two out of THAT, also!
My Forecast: I held off and held off...but, I am now increasing my snow total for the entire weekend to 3-6", more to the south and east, less north and west. These model runs are getting SCARY, and if they shift any more WEST with the next two main runs (tomorrow morning and tomorrow evening)...we may have to up those even HIGHER!
Timing: Precip should begin early Saturday morning, with onset most likely between 12-4 AM Cincinnati time. It would then last throughout Saturday before tapering off on Saturday night for a short time. The second clipper comes in Sunday night after 8 PM and lasts into Monday.
We cannot emphasize this enough...this will be the 1st significant accumulation (1"+) of this winter. While we CANNOT guarantee it will stick to roads...if it DOES, it WILL cause problems! Allow yourself lots of time if you're traveling on Saturday in the Tri-State!
If you've got a flight, or any travel plans for that matter, to the east coast this weekend, especially these cities...CALL AHEAD:
Philadelphia
Washington, DC
Baltimore
NYC
Boston
Charleston, WV
Richmond, VA
Roanoke, VA
Raleigh, NC
Charlotte, NC
Winston-Salem, NC
Asheville, NC
Not all of these cities will see large snow totals, but most will see SOME wintry weather that could cancel flights, snarl roads, and just cause general havoc.
We'll update tomorrow afternoon, or sooner if the information warrants.
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