12Z Runs = GAME ON??

Well, this won't be as detailed as Monday night...mainly due to the fact that most every model has locked in to something close.

But, I want to detail somewhat what the models are showing, as far as our winter storm.

GFS: It's got the low EAST of the Appalachian Mountains. The 0c 850 line (remember from Monday that this is the freezing line at 5000 feet) is mostly along or SOUTH of the Ohio River. This indicates that at least the NW 2/3 of our area could see more snow than anything.

NAM: It's not quite in range. Low isn't so well defined, either.

UKMET (or United Kingdom Meteorological Office Model): It's too east. Low would track to near Baltimore and I just don't buy it. The Southeast Ridge is flat, but not THAT flat.

ECMWF: Garbage. Too far northwest for the pattern that is expected to be in place, which favors a track near or east of Cincinnati. Not buying it. It would be rain to very minor snow accumulation.

GGEM: Right over Cincinnati. Not favorable for heavy snow for Cincy proper, but it means a few inches on the back side.

JMA (Japanese Meteorological Agency): Haven't analyzed this in detail, but low over roughly, say, Paducah or maybe as far east as Evansville at 96 hours then one near Wilmington, DE at 120. Don't think it's the same low, possibly a coastal transfer and I'm not sure I buy it that far east. It'd give us rain to snow, several inches on back end. 500 thicknesses above 540 at 96 hours, crashing to 520-ish by 120 hours. HOWEVER, it could end up being a great setup - since the maps are in 24 hour increments, with a track over southern KY it could end up being a really good setup for somebody if not in the metro then just northwest of it.

BOTTOM LINE: It's still several days away. I want to see decent agreement before I make any calls as to snowfall amounts and/or icing potential (though the latter is becoming LESS likely). I expect everything to be fairly set in stone by Friday morning - at which point I can fine tune things and make a first call.

For now, however, the key points to know:

-- The storm currently looks to start as a mix or possibly plain rain, then switch over to snow late Saturday night or Sunday.
-- Winds will be a BIG problem...any location that gets heavy snow, WATCH OUT for potential blizzard conditions (which are NOT necessarily dependent on snow amounts).
-- Expect temperatures to CRASH, FAST Sunday. Could be in the lower 20s by evening and crashing to the single digits Monday morning!
-- SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE - It is too early to say where or how much - Monitor this space or the NKYWx Twitter page for information!