WINTER WEATHER ALERT: Snow Possible Tomorrow Night/Monday

4:30 AM Saturday Morning - CVG 18° F, Light Snow Reported

Fog could be an issue across areas west of I-75 this morning. I am monitoring this situation extremely closely.

Yes, that's right... we're looking at yet ANOTHER winter storm in the Ohio Valley, with yet MORE snow accumulations.

Here's the setup: A small, compact low will organize west and southwest of Cincinnati tomorrow, down near Paducah, with a warm front across central Kentucky. The low is forecast to take a track across Kentucky on Sunday night into Monday. The models are differing as to how far north or south this will be... as a direct result differing on amount of liquid forecast, and as a result of this, we do not know how much snow will fall - and won't until Sunday morning.

The warm front may possibly be enough to bring at least a dusting of snowfall in the latter half of Sunday afternoon, but the main event is forecast to unfold Sunday night through Monday as the low takes its track across Kentucky, passing south of Cincinnati, somewhere within 40 miles of Lexington.

Due to the cold air at the upper levels... it will not take much moist air to produce significant snowfall across portions of Kentucky, far southern Ohio and extreme southeast Indiana. The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (or QPF) on at least one model indicated anywhere from a quarter to a half of an inch. Temperatures are forecast to be in the 20s through the event. The result will be a snow-to-liquid ratio of 15 inches snow to 1 inch liquid. With these ratios at .25"-.5" liquid QPF... expect anywhere around 4-7" of snow.

Folks...I cannot emphasize enough that this situation is very fluid as of the time of this post (4:20 AM Saturday). We do not know exactly where this low will track... so we do not know where the axis of heaviest snowfall will be. If you are anywhere between the Ohio River and Interstate 64 in the northern half of Kentucky, however... we can reasonably and confidently say there WILL be snowfall and it COULD be significant (4" or more)! Stay tuned, as I will update you on this VERY fluid weather situation. Updates will be between 2-4 PM Saturday, 2-4 AM Sunday morning and again between 2-3 PM Sunday afternoon, or as needed depending on what the models indicate.

-- Jeremy Moses