12:00 AM 2/3/10: CVG 35 F, Wind Chill 27 F
Hello everyone,
We're monitoring closely a MAJOR snow threat on the way to the Ohio/Kentucky/Indiana tri-state area. This has every bit of potential to be a 6"+ snowstorm.
Here's the setup: Currently, we're expecting an upper level low to track across the area, passing VERY near the metro area by Saturday morning. At the same time - a surface low will track across Kentucky. An 850 millibar level low will then stall the surface low over Kentucky. Assuming this occurs, there will be an Atlantic fetch of moisture over the mountains. Conventional wisdom would have you believe that fetch never makes it over the mountains - BUT conventional wisdom was proven wrong exactly 12 years ago tomorrow with the February 4-6, 1998 storm when a high out west actually helped bring the moisture further west. I expect the same setup COULD happen here.
Another low will pop out in NC and track up the east coast. There'll be an energy transfer there which could help or hurt us. And, the models want to bring a deformation zone behind the low here. IF that were to happen, that enhances the heavy snow and whoever is in that zone gets slammed.
Either way - I am calling for anywhere for 4-8 inches across most of the area - and the big winners could be to our northwest with 10"+ out toward Indianapolis. Somebody is going to see a foot out of this. If the low comes southeast a bit - that may be us. Stay tuned.
I'll do a more technical analysis tomorrow with more details...
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