One More Nice Day - Then Very Wet

9:10 PM CVG - 63º, Partly Cloudy

The dry weather continued across the three state area today, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures that cracked the 72 degree mark.

Tomorrow will be a carbon copy of that for the Cincinnati area. We will see mostly sunny skies to begin, but then look for an increase in cloud cover by the end of the day and then really ramping up the clouds Friday night.

Saturday and Sunday do not look good at all. In fact the Storm Prediction Center has much of the Tri-State in a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather Saturday.

Our greater concern, however, is heavy rainfall. Current model runs indicate significant rainfall amounts across the entire area. As I tweeted earlier, IF the North American Mesoscale model were to pan out, it puts out AMAZING rainfall totals over a 72 hour period... those totals appeared to be around 5 inches OR MORE!

Do I think THAT amount will fall? No. As StormChaserNick as well as CincyWxPro point out, and I agree with both, the model appears to be suffering convective feedback - meaning it's picking up too much convective, or thunderstorm, activity for the area in the heaviest rainfall amounts. Consequently, it's way overdoing the precipitation.

HOWEVER - That leaves the question of just how much rain WILL fall. At present, I believe 1-2" of rainfall is LIKELY, with locally higher amounts.

The bottom line is, be ready. Flash flood watches have been issued by the National Weather Service offices to our south and southwest, and I do expect a watch will be needed here.

Stay with Tri-State Weather Watch for the absolute latest on the developing flood threat.