As you know, we've been monitoring very closely the winter storm situation for the Cincinnati area for this weekend. I can now say with HIGH CONFIDENCE that the Tri-State will experience its first significant snowfall of the winter of 2009/2010.
The Setup: A shortwave came ashore across western Canada Thursday morning. It will drop south then shoot to the east, and it looks to come directly over the Tri-State. At the same time...a low is developing down in the Gulf of Mexico, and that is going to be moving northeast. I look for the eastern low to throw moisture back towards the western shortwave as both systems look to at least attempt to phase or come together across western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. Models have been taking the east coast storm more and more west. Folks...right now, a 50 MILE move one direction or another will make a HUGE difference between 2-4" and a whole lot more or quite a bit less. IF everything came together, by the way, the North American and Global Forecast models are painting HUGE totals from North Carolina all the way up possibly as far north as Boston! (North American in particular screamed game on for the entire Interstate 95 corridor in the northeast!) After that, another quick hit of snow looks to come Sunday night into Monday and we may get a quick inch or two out of THAT, also!
My Forecast: I held off and held off...but, I am now increasing my snow total for the entire weekend to 3-6", more to the south and east, less north and west. These model runs are getting SCARY, and if they shift any more WEST with the next two main runs (tomorrow morning and tomorrow evening)...we may have to up those even HIGHER!
Timing: Precip should begin early Saturday morning, with onset most likely between 12-4 AM Cincinnati time. It would then last throughout Saturday before tapering off on Saturday night for a short time. The second clipper comes in Sunday night after 8 PM and lasts into Monday.
We cannot emphasize this enough...this will be the 1st significant accumulation (1"+) of this winter. While we CANNOT guarantee it will stick to roads...if it DOES, it WILL cause problems! Allow yourself lots of time if you're traveling on Saturday in the Tri-State!
If you've got a flight, or any travel plans for that matter, to the east coast this weekend, especially these cities...CALL AHEAD:
Philadelphia
Washington, DC
Baltimore
NYC
Boston
Charleston, WV
Richmond, VA
Roanoke, VA
Raleigh, NC
Charlotte, NC
Winston-Salem, NC
Asheville, NC
Not all of these cities will see large snow totals, but most will see SOME wintry weather that could cancel flights, snarl roads, and just cause general havoc.
We'll update tomorrow afternoon, or sooner if the information warrants.
Friday, December 18, 2009
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
STORM WATCH: Double Shot Weekend?
Good afternoon folks... not a lot going on today or tomorrow...but there's some interesting action for this weekend!
Right now, we're tracking what looks like two separate storms for this weekend. As it stands, both the GFS and European models are indicating that two clipper systems could bring our first significant (1"+) snow of the winter. Both are suggesting that these will track near or just over Cincinnati, one on Saturday and the second on Sunday night into Monday.
Right now, it is too early to suggest specific amounts for general areas for Saturday, much less Monday, but 3 day totals at this stage suggest a 2-4 inch event.
A note: if the upper levels are right on this morning's model runs, the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, or QPF, may be underdone for this area which would suggest more than 4 inches of snow is a possibility! Stay tuned - we'll have a better handle on it tonight and more so tomorrow and Friday.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
ALERT: High Wind Warning EXPANDED, Strong Storms In the Area!
This is a special 4:30 AM update...
The HIGH WIND WARNING remains in effect from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM Thursday, and has now been expanded to cover the counties under the earlier WIND ADVISORY. The Wind Advisory has been upgraded for these counties in our area:
Ohio: Adams, Brown, Highland and Scioto
Kentucky: Lewis
The warning remains effective at 7 AM for these counties:
Ohio: Butler, Clermont, Clinton, Greene, Hamilton, Montgomery, Preble, Warren
Kentucky: Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, Mason, Owen, Pendleton, Robertson
Indiana: Dearborn, Fayette, Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland, Union, Wayne
Additionally... thunderstorms with heavy rain have moved into the area. This IS with the cold front and strong storms are possible this morning.
Regardless, the wind threat is highest after the front actually passes us - this will be a serious situation later today!
I will be in Louisville later today and will report anything I see of note via the Northern Kentucky Weather Twitter.
New E-Mail Set
UPDATE: The Tri-State Media account will no longer be used to update this blog on a regular basis.
Instead, the email address below is now the administrative account for this blog.
The original post follows...
---------------------------------
I have set a new email address specifically for this blog.
That email will be northernkentuckyweather at gmail-dot-com. (You'll be able to put it together I am sure.)
Any correspondence FOR THIS BLOG ONLY should be sent there.
Instead, the email address below is now the administrative account for this blog.
The original post follows...
---------------------------------
I have set a new email address specifically for this blog.
That email will be northernkentuckyweather at gmail-dot-com. (You'll be able to put it together I am sure.)
Any correspondence FOR THIS BLOG ONLY should be sent there.
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
BREAKING WEATHER NEWS: High Wind Warning Issued
The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a HIGH WIND WARNING and a WIND ADVISORY from 7 AM EST tomorrow to 1 AM EST Thursday. The warning has been issued for the following counties in the TSWW coverage area:
Ohio: Butler, Clermont, Clinton, Greene, Hamilton, Montgomery, Preble, Warren
Kentucky: Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, Mason, Owen, Pendleton, Robertson
Indiana: Dearborn, Fayette, Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland, Union, Wayne
The advisory is in effect for these counties:
Ohio: Adams, Brown, Highland, Scioto
Kentucky: Lewis
Winds of 25 to 40 miles per hour, with gusts anywhere from 50 to 60 miles per hour, will be possible across our area. These winds will be capable of property and tree damage, accidents, and power outages, and may be dangerous to your life, especially in the High Wind Warning area.
There will also be heavy rain at times tonight, as a warm front surges northward. Right now, everything is well on target as the front is headed north and the expected rain has begun. Rainfall will continue, and as I said above, will be heavy at times. The cold front that will bring tomorrow's winds should swing through early tomorrow. Temperatures will plummet, and I think I may actually be on target with how fast. I'm sticking with my idea of temperatures falling to the lower 30s by drive time, possibly as low as the upper 20s by 6 or 7 PM.
Remember that the winds will be gusty even as you wake up tomorrow morning - but get worse as the day progresses. If you drive a higher profile vehicle be ESPECIALLY careful in the High Wind Warning zone tomorrow!
I'll be in Louisville, Kentucky tomorrow afternoon, and will update via the NKYWx twitter at http://twitter.com/NKYWx throughout the day via my mobile phone. Keep an eye on that. This blog won't be updated as often tomorrow, as I may not have internet access at my location.
Monday, December 7, 2009
Wintry, then Rainy, then Windy, then Wintry again! Part One of a Two Part Discussion
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY LATE NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE TSWW COVERAGE AREA!
What a morning Monday morning was across the tri-state! Sheesh. As I said on Twitter sometime around 8:45 this morning...I've not seen a traffic map as red as the one I saw around that time, in a LONG time.
Well...we're not done with the wintry stuff. In fact, we'll only get about a 24-28 hour break from it.
As we go into your Tuesday afternoon, a low will scoot into southwest or central Missouri then eject into the Central Great Lakes by Wednesday. As that happens, a warm front will be moving north across Greater Cincinnati during the afternoon.
There's one thing here that could be a problem - and the National Weather Service has pinpointed it. It's a little thing called Isentropic Lift, or basically, lifting of air along a sloping surface. As that happens on Tuesday, we're going to start out with a mix of rain, sleet, and snow (more frozen the further north you go, more liquid as you go south - Central KY should be mostly rain so the bigger issue there is amount). Yours truly had a quick talk with WKRC-TV 12 meteorologist John Gumm - we're both in agreement that, by and large, daytime highs won't get out of the 30s. I'm going with 37, Mr. Gumm's thought was 39 and I think either is reasonable depending on the onset of precipitation.
The warm front comes through sometime just about rush hour Tuesday afternoon in the metro. This warm front will bring winds around to the south and southwest for Tuesday night and the first part of Wednesday, and the result is that any frozen precip that mixes in during the afternoon turns to all liquid rain Tuesday mid-evening at the latest. The result of this warm front also will be a RISE in temperatures. What's wrong with that picture? Normally, we lose the heating of the day in the nighttime hours. Because we'll be under the influence of something called Warm Air Advection, or WAA, the result is warming temperatures into the lower and perhaps even middle 40s by the early hours of Wednesday.
Now, things get interesting. As the low passes, the pressure gradient will tighten, which will cause the air to move faster between the high pressure to the southwest and the low pressure to the north. If you have an understanding of this process, you'll know this gradient is how we get wind. Well...there will be a SCREAMING low level jet stream at about 900 millibar level (or approximately 1 kilometer up in the atmosphere) of about 50 knots. Translate this down to the ground and you'll get 57.5 miles per hour - or roughly, high wind warning criteria. This level looks to be met for a short period at least on Wednesday. Meanwhile, you have the cold front coming through Wednesday morning, sometime between 4-8 AM.
Remember that Warm Air Advection I spoke of? Well, here comes the exact opposite, Cold Air Advection, and with a big time vengeance. Temperatures, remember, will begin Wednesday in the middle 40s for many spots especially south. That cold air comes in on winds that will be switching to the northwest and HOWLING between 40 and 45 miles per hour with gusts to 55 or 60. The temperature, then must respond and does so in dramatic fashion, PLUMMETING through the 30s, and (MAYBE) clear into the 20s by nightfall around 6-7 PM! There goes the bottom... and what happens to any moisture left over? Snow flurries at LEAST, possibly snow showers on Wednesday afternoon as we drop the temperature.
This post has already gotten too long, so part two will come later this evening. I may have an adjustment or two, but I think this looks good right now.
What a morning Monday morning was across the tri-state! Sheesh. As I said on Twitter sometime around 8:45 this morning...I've not seen a traffic map as red as the one I saw around that time, in a LONG time.
Well...we're not done with the wintry stuff. In fact, we'll only get about a 24-28 hour break from it.
As we go into your Tuesday afternoon, a low will scoot into southwest or central Missouri then eject into the Central Great Lakes by Wednesday. As that happens, a warm front will be moving north across Greater Cincinnati during the afternoon.
There's one thing here that could be a problem - and the National Weather Service has pinpointed it. It's a little thing called Isentropic Lift, or basically, lifting of air along a sloping surface. As that happens on Tuesday, we're going to start out with a mix of rain, sleet, and snow (more frozen the further north you go, more liquid as you go south - Central KY should be mostly rain so the bigger issue there is amount). Yours truly had a quick talk with WKRC-TV 12 meteorologist John Gumm - we're both in agreement that, by and large, daytime highs won't get out of the 30s. I'm going with 37, Mr. Gumm's thought was 39 and I think either is reasonable depending on the onset of precipitation.
The warm front comes through sometime just about rush hour Tuesday afternoon in the metro. This warm front will bring winds around to the south and southwest for Tuesday night and the first part of Wednesday, and the result is that any frozen precip that mixes in during the afternoon turns to all liquid rain Tuesday mid-evening at the latest. The result of this warm front also will be a RISE in temperatures. What's wrong with that picture? Normally, we lose the heating of the day in the nighttime hours. Because we'll be under the influence of something called Warm Air Advection, or WAA, the result is warming temperatures into the lower and perhaps even middle 40s by the early hours of Wednesday.
Now, things get interesting. As the low passes, the pressure gradient will tighten, which will cause the air to move faster between the high pressure to the southwest and the low pressure to the north. If you have an understanding of this process, you'll know this gradient is how we get wind. Well...there will be a SCREAMING low level jet stream at about 900 millibar level (or approximately 1 kilometer up in the atmosphere) of about 50 knots. Translate this down to the ground and you'll get 57.5 miles per hour - or roughly, high wind warning criteria. This level looks to be met for a short period at least on Wednesday. Meanwhile, you have the cold front coming through Wednesday morning, sometime between 4-8 AM.
Remember that Warm Air Advection I spoke of? Well, here comes the exact opposite, Cold Air Advection, and with a big time vengeance. Temperatures, remember, will begin Wednesday in the middle 40s for many spots especially south. That cold air comes in on winds that will be switching to the northwest and HOWLING between 40 and 45 miles per hour with gusts to 55 or 60. The temperature, then must respond and does so in dramatic fashion, PLUMMETING through the 30s, and (MAYBE) clear into the 20s by nightfall around 6-7 PM! There goes the bottom... and what happens to any moisture left over? Snow flurries at LEAST, possibly snow showers on Wednesday afternoon as we drop the temperature.
This post has already gotten too long, so part two will come later this evening. I may have an adjustment or two, but I think this looks good right now.
ALERT: SNOW MOVING IN!
Snowfall is moving into the Greater Cincinnati tri-state area now.
At 3:53 AM, Bloomington, Indiana was first in our immediate coverage area to report snow falling. Before then, Evansville, Vincennes, and Terre Haute, Indiana all had reported light snow this morning.
Through 10 or 11 this morning, we'll see snow falling across our area. Prepare for slippery roads this morning, give drivers ahead of you PLENTY of extra room, and SLOW DOWN.
Twitter Feed Not Working
QUICK CHANGE: For the time being, until the Twitter Gadget quits eating its own face, we've replaced it with the RSS feed you'll see at right.
It may not be updating frequently - but if it does update, you should see it.
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For updates from this space's primary author, please go to http://twitter.com/NKYWx until further notice. Which will probably be when the Twitter gadget works.
Sunday, December 6, 2009
WINTER WEATHER ALERT: Snow Possible Tomorrow Morning, Ice on Tuesday Night???
Here we go, folks - we're only in the first 10 days of meteorological winter, and already, some concerns.
First, tonight. A disturbance out to the west will swing through tonight and the first half of tomorrow. I look for precipitation to begin overnight, possibly as early as 4-5 AM. This will start out as wintry (snow), transition to a rain/snow mix, and maybe end as all rain if the atmosphere warms enough.
Our highs today only made the 35 degree mark. We WILL drop into the 20s tonight (in fact the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport is at 30 and so at the next observation should be around 28-29 degrees), so there's not much doubt we'll start as snow, I don't expect to fall much further than that so expect it to be around 26 when you wake up in the morning.
By 9 AM I look for us to be around 32, and at that point warm air should work into the middle levels of the atmosphere, so rain should start mixing in then. If we warm all layers enough, we may end as all rain by noontime. I do not, however, think we will make 40 degrees - with the precipitation around early, we should stay around 36 for a high.
Then, focus turns to another, larger storm on Tuesday and Wednesday. At this time...I expect this to come in around 5 or 6 PM. Precip type also is a concern with this one. I do not see the area being much above freezing - and quick evaporational cooling COULD send us plummeting below freezing - which would mean an icy mess on Tuesday evening. Freezing rain and sleet could be a problem, so keep that in mind when planning for activities on Tuesday night. Either way, warm air surges north overnight Tuesday night and that should change us over to all rain which would continue through the first half of Wednesday. At that point, the cold front comes south early Wednesday afternoon. Once that happens, temperatures plummet again Wednesday night, changing anything that's left BACK to wintry precipitation this time in the form of snow, and a quick 1 inch is possible.
There's another threat of wintry precipitation at the end of the week - but we'll not worry much about that until we get to Wednesday night and Thursday. Suffice to say right now, that looks like it's all snow.
More tomorrow...
Monday, November 30, 2009
Thoughts Ahead of a Couple More Snow Threats
There are yet MORE snow threats to track, one of which is out 11 days into the future so we won't spend a whole lot of time there.
The first one is Thursday into Friday. The setup has a low tracking through the Ohio Valley Wednesday into Thursday. At this time I am calling for a track from Louisville, through Cincinnati, then into Central Ohio. This would bring rain into the area Wednesday afternoon, which should mix with then change over to snow on Thursday morning. Then, an upper level trough should settle in Thursday afternoon. That would bring a northwesterly fetch and continued snow showers with a quick disturbance to enhance the action on Friday morning before tapering.
At this point in time, I DO NOT see major accumulation with this. Maybe 1" on grassy surfaces, nothing should stick to roads. So, your commutes to and from work Thursday, as well as morning drive on Friday, should be okay barring a flash freeze (which could happen).
Regardless, this sets the stage for at least one more system Sunday into Monday which again should be rain to a quick inch of backside snows - and then we've got the cold air in place and right now the long range models have an idea of a storm sliding up to our east on the 10th which would bring potentially the first 2"+ snow to our area. Too early right now to even speculate, but with the cold air in place indications are that it WOULD be all snow. Stay tuned...
NOTE: Per John Gumm at WKRC-TV 12/Cincinnati, the 12z models look "horrible" for snow, with the North American Model showing nothing at all snow wise. Stay tuned...we'll analyze that output later today.
The first one is Thursday into Friday. The setup has a low tracking through the Ohio Valley Wednesday into Thursday. At this time I am calling for a track from Louisville, through Cincinnati, then into Central Ohio. This would bring rain into the area Wednesday afternoon, which should mix with then change over to snow on Thursday morning. Then, an upper level trough should settle in Thursday afternoon. That would bring a northwesterly fetch and continued snow showers with a quick disturbance to enhance the action on Friday morning before tapering.
At this point in time, I DO NOT see major accumulation with this. Maybe 1" on grassy surfaces, nothing should stick to roads. So, your commutes to and from work Thursday, as well as morning drive on Friday, should be okay barring a flash freeze (which could happen).
Regardless, this sets the stage for at least one more system Sunday into Monday which again should be rain to a quick inch of backside snows - and then we've got the cold air in place and right now the long range models have an idea of a storm sliding up to our east on the 10th which would bring potentially the first 2"+ snow to our area. Too early right now to even speculate, but with the cold air in place indications are that it WOULD be all snow. Stay tuned...
NOTE: Per John Gumm at WKRC-TV 12/Cincinnati, the 12z models look "horrible" for snow, with the North American Model showing nothing at all snow wise. Stay tuned...we'll analyze that output later today.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Checking on the Three Storm Threats.
Good morning folks,
We're two days into the short week - and things aren't looking as interesting for next Tuesday as previously thought - but still could see our first accumulating snow.
Let's back up though and deal with the Thanksgiving storm first - which should begin to impact our area tonight but more so tomorrow.
Most models are coming to agreement with the main feature for tonight - a shortwave that sweeps through our area sometime tonight should bring about 40-50 percent coverage of rain to our area. The best chance is NORTH of Cincinnati and Dayton - but even from Dayton south has a good chance. As I said probably 40-50 percent coverage at any time tonight. Leftover rainfall could be a problem tomorrow afternoon - but I don't see issues other than wet roads for Thanksgiving travelers with this part of the storm.
The true main event comes tomorrow night through Friday. There will be a second shortwave with an associated cold front on Thanksgiving, and temperature profiles at the start are favorable for a cold rain. So for your Thanksgiving dinner plans or those who have short distance travel plans, keep in mind roads will be wet. Then, behind the front temperatures plummet into the low 30s or even upper 20s and temperature profiles suggest the rain will mix with then change over to snow showers for Thanksgiving night into Friday morning. We then dry out Friday afternoon but it remains cold with highs probably barely cracking 40. Saturday, the NWS wants to send temperatures into the upper 40s but I'm going to pull back just a bit and suggest middle 40s. Same for Sunday - I'm holding off the 50 degree temps until Monday so upper 40s looks okay there.
Then the next event comes on Monday. Right now, the 0Z GFS wants to bring the low over Cincinnati and this results in rain with a changeover to snow and maybe a few inches on the backside of the low. This seems as good a solution as any, but I am not going to be pinned down right now on track. This has 6 days to change as it would begin to affect the Greater Cincinnati area on Monday night.
There are signs that the storm behind THAT, around December 6th, could be game on for a really good snowfall - but that is even FURTHER out and so I will just mention the possibility.
Regardless of what these storms do next week, the middle of the month is GAME ON for cold, arctic air as it looks right now. Each storm over these next 14 days brings colder and colder air south across the middle of the US and I think the 12/6 storm would likely be "the big one" I spoke of in my winter outlook earlier this month.
Bottom line: Rain the next few days, changing to snow on Thanksgiving night then a rain to snow scenario (as it looks right now) next Monday-Tuesday, then a bigger snow possible around 12/6, even as we get colder and colder.
Have a great Tuesday everyone,
Jeremy Moses
We're two days into the short week - and things aren't looking as interesting for next Tuesday as previously thought - but still could see our first accumulating snow.
Let's back up though and deal with the Thanksgiving storm first - which should begin to impact our area tonight but more so tomorrow.
Most models are coming to agreement with the main feature for tonight - a shortwave that sweeps through our area sometime tonight should bring about 40-50 percent coverage of rain to our area. The best chance is NORTH of Cincinnati and Dayton - but even from Dayton south has a good chance. As I said probably 40-50 percent coverage at any time tonight. Leftover rainfall could be a problem tomorrow afternoon - but I don't see issues other than wet roads for Thanksgiving travelers with this part of the storm.
The true main event comes tomorrow night through Friday. There will be a second shortwave with an associated cold front on Thanksgiving, and temperature profiles at the start are favorable for a cold rain. So for your Thanksgiving dinner plans or those who have short distance travel plans, keep in mind roads will be wet. Then, behind the front temperatures plummet into the low 30s or even upper 20s and temperature profiles suggest the rain will mix with then change over to snow showers for Thanksgiving night into Friday morning. We then dry out Friday afternoon but it remains cold with highs probably barely cracking 40. Saturday, the NWS wants to send temperatures into the upper 40s but I'm going to pull back just a bit and suggest middle 40s. Same for Sunday - I'm holding off the 50 degree temps until Monday so upper 40s looks okay there.
Then the next event comes on Monday. Right now, the 0Z GFS wants to bring the low over Cincinnati and this results in rain with a changeover to snow and maybe a few inches on the backside of the low. This seems as good a solution as any, but I am not going to be pinned down right now on track. This has 6 days to change as it would begin to affect the Greater Cincinnati area on Monday night.
There are signs that the storm behind THAT, around December 6th, could be game on for a really good snowfall - but that is even FURTHER out and so I will just mention the possibility.
Regardless of what these storms do next week, the middle of the month is GAME ON for cold, arctic air as it looks right now. Each storm over these next 14 days brings colder and colder air south across the middle of the US and I think the 12/6 storm would likely be "the big one" I spoke of in my winter outlook earlier this month.
Bottom line: Rain the next few days, changing to snow on Thanksgiving night then a rain to snow scenario (as it looks right now) next Monday-Tuesday, then a bigger snow possible around 12/6, even as we get colder and colder.
Have a great Tuesday everyone,
Jeremy Moses
Monday, November 23, 2009
Looking Ahead: Snow Threat More Pronounced for Thanksgiving, Black Friday!
Good morning ladies and gentlemen,
We're going to start your short workweek on the chilly side, and with a few rain showers in the southeastern counties of the Cincy Tri-State. In particular, Brown, Adams, Highland and Scioto counties in Ohio and Bracken, Mason, Lewis and Robertson counties in Northern Kentucky could see a couple light showers early this morning with a small disturbance. It should not be a big deal, however. Anybody in the Tri-State could actually see a few light showers anytime on Monday, as we struggle to reach 55.
But - and you had to know there'd be a but - there's a more sustained rain threat as we go into Tuesday night through Thanksgiving. A cold front will sweep into, then through the Greater Cincinnati area during that time period. While it won't be carrying any significant instability (and thus, no thunderstorm threat), it WILL have plenty of moisture to work with. As such, I look for rain to start late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, and continue through much of Thursday. Generally from Monday through Wednesday, lows will be between 35 and 45 and highs between 50 and 55.
Then it gets tricky. While I expect precipitation to continue...models are literally all over the place with type and the speed of a closed low that will drop into the northern Great Lakes on Thursday night and Friday. The Global Forecast Service Model wants to keep temperatures warm enough through most of the atmosphere to support all rain. The European upper air model, however, wants to bring enough cold air into the area for a rain/snow mix, and I'm inclined to agree for Thursday late day and Thursday evening. However...I do think all layers cool off enough overnight on Thanksgiving night and through the first half of Friday to support a changeover to all snow for the area, even south of the Ohio River. Friday's highs won't even get past the lower 40s (I am calling for 43) after a raw Thanksgiving with highs only around 46. It should be noted, however, that enough of the ground is still above freezing to not really worry about accumulating snowfall for Thursday night and Friday. Then we dry out Saturday, and another system swings in Sunday with a few more rain showers. We'll be below normal on Saturday as well with highs around 44, and back near normal Sunday with 48.
BUT...our focus turns to the models again for NEXT week. And wouldn't you know it - the long range models actually want to bring in the snow threat I talked about previously for around the 5th or 6th of December - AND are introducing a NEW threat for next Tuesday! The 12/1 storm needs to be monitored closely - as it looks BIG!
So to sum up the next 7 days:
== Near normal temperatures today through Wednesday
== Rainy Tuesday night through Thursday
== First snow of the season looks LIKELY Thursday night and Friday Morning
== BELOW normal temps from Thursday through Saturday, recovering to near normal on Sunday
== WATCH OUT week of 11/30-12/6 - TWO significant winter weather threats??
We're going to start your short workweek on the chilly side, and with a few rain showers in the southeastern counties of the Cincy Tri-State. In particular, Brown, Adams, Highland and Scioto counties in Ohio and Bracken, Mason, Lewis and Robertson counties in Northern Kentucky could see a couple light showers early this morning with a small disturbance. It should not be a big deal, however. Anybody in the Tri-State could actually see a few light showers anytime on Monday, as we struggle to reach 55.
But - and you had to know there'd be a but - there's a more sustained rain threat as we go into Tuesday night through Thanksgiving. A cold front will sweep into, then through the Greater Cincinnati area during that time period. While it won't be carrying any significant instability (and thus, no thunderstorm threat), it WILL have plenty of moisture to work with. As such, I look for rain to start late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, and continue through much of Thursday. Generally from Monday through Wednesday, lows will be between 35 and 45 and highs between 50 and 55.
Then it gets tricky. While I expect precipitation to continue...models are literally all over the place with type and the speed of a closed low that will drop into the northern Great Lakes on Thursday night and Friday. The Global Forecast Service Model wants to keep temperatures warm enough through most of the atmosphere to support all rain. The European upper air model, however, wants to bring enough cold air into the area for a rain/snow mix, and I'm inclined to agree for Thursday late day and Thursday evening. However...I do think all layers cool off enough overnight on Thanksgiving night and through the first half of Friday to support a changeover to all snow for the area, even south of the Ohio River. Friday's highs won't even get past the lower 40s (I am calling for 43) after a raw Thanksgiving with highs only around 46. It should be noted, however, that enough of the ground is still above freezing to not really worry about accumulating snowfall for Thursday night and Friday. Then we dry out Saturday, and another system swings in Sunday with a few more rain showers. We'll be below normal on Saturday as well with highs around 44, and back near normal Sunday with 48.
BUT...our focus turns to the models again for NEXT week. And wouldn't you know it - the long range models actually want to bring in the snow threat I talked about previously for around the 5th or 6th of December - AND are introducing a NEW threat for next Tuesday! The 12/1 storm needs to be monitored closely - as it looks BIG!
So to sum up the next 7 days:
== Near normal temperatures today through Wednesday
== Rainy Tuesday night through Thursday
== First snow of the season looks LIKELY Thursday night and Friday Morning
== BELOW normal temps from Thursday through Saturday, recovering to near normal on Sunday
== WATCH OUT week of 11/30-12/6 - TWO significant winter weather threats??
Saturday, November 21, 2009
Turning Colder - SNOW on Thanksgiving Night???
We're enjoying some nice weather this weekend - after cold starts this morning and Sunday morning.
As of 5:00 AM, temperatures ranged from 30 in Hamilton, OH to 36 at the Cincinnati/NKY International Airport to 43 in Jackson, Kentucky. 30-36 is the general range around town right now (the center of Cincinnati, however, may be in the upper 30s or lower 40s).
We'll remain sunny today as fog that is currently hanging over the Tri-State burns off by 10 AM. Watch out north of town if you're traveling this morning, however...some of this fog is actually FREEZING FOG and will freeze on bridges and overpasses!
As we go through the day, we'll be sunny with highs around 55. Tonight, watch for patchy fog to develop again and again there may be problems with freezing fog in valleys north of downtown if temperatures dip low enough. For the rest, there might be some frost tomorrow morning.
Sunday looks great as well with highs approaching 60.
The next chance of rain slides in Monday and Tuesday with a 30 percent chance of rain both days and highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Then...here comes the first winter blast.
The models indicate some colder air developing and sinking southbound into the Tri-State on Wednesday. This is the catalyst for changes in our pattern. By Thanksgiving Day, another system will be moving in. Right now, it is too early to say with total certainty what precipitation type the Tri-State will see. But...at least one model wants to put something of a mix of rain, snow and maybe ice pellets into the Tri-State Thanksgiving Night.
Here's how the GFS depicts Sea Level Pressure, the past 6 hours of precipitation, and 850 mb (or 5,000 feet) temps at 144 hours (or 7 PM Thanksgiving Evening) courtesy of NCEP as of the 7 PM model run. (With these, you can click the small version to receive the full resolution version) Note where the 0C line is at 5000 feet:
Here's the model run for those same parameters at 150 hours (Again, click for hi resolution).
Oh and here are the 2 meter temps and 10 meter winds with precip for those same two time periods also courtesy NCEP (As before, you can click these to get full resolution):
Those 2m temps wouldn't cause too much concern - but, if we're cold/cool on Wednesday, this could change.
IF the snowfall comes to pass, it won't amount to any significant accumulation. Could that change, sure...but it looks like my prediction of a significant snow near Thanksgiving could bust. Again - still too early to say, so I could be eating crow on Black Friday instead of leftover turkey...but hey, I've given it a good try, haven't I???
The pattern begins to change...and there's chances for signficant snow past that, but as they are so far out that you can't rely on the models to interpret them I'll leave that out for now. Watch out though if anything starts showing a good storm for on or near December 3-4, especially if the possibility shows up after Thanksgiving! A recent model run teased that possibility - so I will be watching to see if it brings this back!
Where else will you get this kind of analysis for FREE? Not at one of the "other" independent sources in town...they charge for this.
As of 5:00 AM, temperatures ranged from 30 in Hamilton, OH to 36 at the Cincinnati/NKY International Airport to 43 in Jackson, Kentucky. 30-36 is the general range around town right now (the center of Cincinnati, however, may be in the upper 30s or lower 40s).
We'll remain sunny today as fog that is currently hanging over the Tri-State burns off by 10 AM. Watch out north of town if you're traveling this morning, however...some of this fog is actually FREEZING FOG and will freeze on bridges and overpasses!
As we go through the day, we'll be sunny with highs around 55. Tonight, watch for patchy fog to develop again and again there may be problems with freezing fog in valleys north of downtown if temperatures dip low enough. For the rest, there might be some frost tomorrow morning.
Sunday looks great as well with highs approaching 60.
The next chance of rain slides in Monday and Tuesday with a 30 percent chance of rain both days and highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Then...here comes the first winter blast.
The models indicate some colder air developing and sinking southbound into the Tri-State on Wednesday. This is the catalyst for changes in our pattern. By Thanksgiving Day, another system will be moving in. Right now, it is too early to say with total certainty what precipitation type the Tri-State will see. But...at least one model wants to put something of a mix of rain, snow and maybe ice pellets into the Tri-State Thanksgiving Night.
Here's how the GFS depicts Sea Level Pressure, the past 6 hours of precipitation, and 850 mb (or 5,000 feet) temps at 144 hours (or 7 PM Thanksgiving Evening) courtesy of NCEP as of the 7 PM model run. (With these, you can click the small version to receive the full resolution version) Note where the 0C line is at 5000 feet:
Here's the model run for those same parameters at 150 hours (Again, click for hi resolution).
Oh and here are the 2 meter temps and 10 meter winds with precip for those same two time periods also courtesy NCEP (As before, you can click these to get full resolution):
Those 2m temps wouldn't cause too much concern - but, if we're cold/cool on Wednesday, this could change.
IF the snowfall comes to pass, it won't amount to any significant accumulation. Could that change, sure...but it looks like my prediction of a significant snow near Thanksgiving could bust. Again - still too early to say, so I could be eating crow on Black Friday instead of leftover turkey...but hey, I've given it a good try, haven't I???
The pattern begins to change...and there's chances for signficant snow past that, but as they are so far out that you can't rely on the models to interpret them I'll leave that out for now. Watch out though if anything starts showing a good storm for on or near December 3-4, especially if the possibility shows up after Thanksgiving! A recent model run teased that possibility - so I will be watching to see if it brings this back!
Where else will you get this kind of analysis for FREE? Not at one of the "other" independent sources in town...they charge for this.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Looking to the week ahead...
We have enjoyed yet another nice day across the Tri-State! It was beautiful, with highs around 66 (as of 4 PM) at the Cincinnati/N KY International Airport, as well as at Dayton and Columbus.
Well, I hope you enjoyed that - because we won't reach that mark again for at least the next week after tomorrow.
Our weather pattern looks to change in the next 48 hours, as a cool front comes into the area tomorrow evening. Before that...one more day of 60 degree weather tomorrow. I'm calling for a high of 62, but some locations will get to around 66 or 67 one more time, mainly south and east. We'll be partly sunny most of the day, with clouds moving in and becoming more widespread late.
As the front moves into the area on Sunday night, we'll turn cloudy. But...one change from this morning - the front looks to come in dry. There's just not enough lift or forcing for any rain - consequently even the 20 percent chance of rain is out of the forecast, but I can't rule out an isolated shower west/northwest of town in the early evening. That front could stall along the river on Monday - so I'm hesitant to make a temperature forecast at this time especially as models want to put KY into the warm sector. For now, will go with a high of 60, but reserve my right to change it on Sunday.
Now...there's some uncertainty beyond this point, so follow me here. By Tuesday, a closed low somewhere near St. Louis will begin moving north. Because it's closed off from the jet stream, it won't move fast. That low starts bringing moisture into our area on Wednesday, so I'm inclined to introduce a 30 percent chance of rain, and by Thursday rain seems to be a 50/50 shot, then Friday is the best threat of rain with a front finally forcing its way through the area. Saturday should finally see the rain end and drying moving in.
Bottom line, an unsettled, cooler pattern looks to take hold - so enjoy the 66 and sunshine you had today...
Well, I hope you enjoyed that - because we won't reach that mark again for at least the next week after tomorrow.
Our weather pattern looks to change in the next 48 hours, as a cool front comes into the area tomorrow evening. Before that...one more day of 60 degree weather tomorrow. I'm calling for a high of 62, but some locations will get to around 66 or 67 one more time, mainly south and east. We'll be partly sunny most of the day, with clouds moving in and becoming more widespread late.
As the front moves into the area on Sunday night, we'll turn cloudy. But...one change from this morning - the front looks to come in dry. There's just not enough lift or forcing for any rain - consequently even the 20 percent chance of rain is out of the forecast, but I can't rule out an isolated shower west/northwest of town in the early evening. That front could stall along the river on Monday - so I'm hesitant to make a temperature forecast at this time especially as models want to put KY into the warm sector. For now, will go with a high of 60, but reserve my right to change it on Sunday.
Now...there's some uncertainty beyond this point, so follow me here. By Tuesday, a closed low somewhere near St. Louis will begin moving north. Because it's closed off from the jet stream, it won't move fast. That low starts bringing moisture into our area on Wednesday, so I'm inclined to introduce a 30 percent chance of rain, and by Thursday rain seems to be a 50/50 shot, then Friday is the best threat of rain with a front finally forcing its way through the area. Saturday should finally see the rain end and drying moving in.
Bottom line, an unsettled, cooler pattern looks to take hold - so enjoy the 66 and sunshine you had today...
Thursday, November 12, 2009
November Nor'easter!!!
What a wild night it is on the east coast!!!
Yours truly has a friend named Trisha who now lives down in Virginia Beach, and from what we're hearing, it rained the entire day out there on Wednesday.
Unfortunately, it looks like Trisha and everyone else from New Jersey to the Carolinas will not be catching a break today.
Just for VA Beach alone, there's a Coastal Flood Warning, High Wind Warning, Flood Watch, and High Surf Advisory, ALL IN EFFECT until Friday night or Saturday morning! It's the same story in North Carolina, the Tidewater of Virginia, and the Delmarva peninsula as well as New Jersey.
For those areas, they won't get out of this mess until Friday...and by then we could very well have millions of dollars of damage done all along the east coast between coastal and river flooding ALONE, not to mention incidental losses from the high winds of 40-65 mph (e.g., spoiled food at grocery stores and schools, trees on buildings, things like that).
The nor'easter is not moving very fast...consequently, this could be a historic event for the areas mentioned. I don't see the storm moving away from the coast or impacts lessening until Saturday.
For the Tri-State...there remains not very much to talk about. We look to remain dry through about Monday night - a 50 percent chance of rain arrives for Tuesday.
Forecast: Today: Sunny, relatively pleasant for Nov. 12. High: 58.
Tonight: Clear, chilly. Low: 39.
Friday: Sunny, a tad warmer. High: 61.
Currently at 4:00 AM 11/12/09: Fair, 38 degrees. Wind chill is 32
Yours truly has a friend named Trisha who now lives down in Virginia Beach, and from what we're hearing, it rained the entire day out there on Wednesday.
Unfortunately, it looks like Trisha and everyone else from New Jersey to the Carolinas will not be catching a break today.
Just for VA Beach alone, there's a Coastal Flood Warning, High Wind Warning, Flood Watch, and High Surf Advisory, ALL IN EFFECT until Friday night or Saturday morning! It's the same story in North Carolina, the Tidewater of Virginia, and the Delmarva peninsula as well as New Jersey.
For those areas, they won't get out of this mess until Friday...and by then we could very well have millions of dollars of damage done all along the east coast between coastal and river flooding ALONE, not to mention incidental losses from the high winds of 40-65 mph (e.g., spoiled food at grocery stores and schools, trees on buildings, things like that).
The nor'easter is not moving very fast...consequently, this could be a historic event for the areas mentioned. I don't see the storm moving away from the coast or impacts lessening until Saturday.
For the Tri-State...there remains not very much to talk about. We look to remain dry through about Monday night - a 50 percent chance of rain arrives for Tuesday.
Forecast: Today: Sunny, relatively pleasant for Nov. 12. High: 58.
Tonight: Clear, chilly. Low: 39.
Friday: Sunny, a tad warmer. High: 61.
Currently at 4:00 AM 11/12/09: Fair, 38 degrees. Wind chill is 32
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Talking Ida and a Cooldown
Briefly, before I get to the meat of my discussion on Hurricane Ida, let's briefly talk Tri-State Weather... it looks like a decent day for tomorrow. A cold front comes through Tuesday and knocks us back about 15 degrees, with highs in the 50s from Wednesday on. That front might actually be mostly dry - I don't see a lot of moisture in the air, much less other dynamics we need for widespread rain.
Now, to Ida.
Hurricane Ida at this hour is located 445 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum winds are at 105 miles an hour, with gusts to CAT 3 strength. However, we don't expect it to become a CAT 3. In fact, it may be weakening now - pressure is 979 millibars, up from 976 at 4 PM.
Ida should be running into colder waters in the Gulf of Mexico tonight and tomorrow. Along with this, westerly shear will start to tear the convection apart. Sometime on Tuesday morning, then, Ida will merge with a cold front (in fact the same one that will impact us) and become extratropical, or a cold-core system. Before then, Ida will steadily weaken from tonight on.
As to the track - the front will also steer the system. It will move north, then northeast. Landfall will most likely be on the Florida Panhandle. However, there's still a wide area that could be impacted - anybody from southern Louisiana to Florida should be watching this storm. Winds at landfall will still be upper-end tropical storm force to at worst lower-end CAT 1 hurricane force. Until it landfalls, we can't be sure what kind of damage we'll see. But, I do not think it's a huge deal.
I will be following this closely tonight and tomorrow. Stay tuned...
Now, to Ida.
Hurricane Ida at this hour is located 445 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum winds are at 105 miles an hour, with gusts to CAT 3 strength. However, we don't expect it to become a CAT 3. In fact, it may be weakening now - pressure is 979 millibars, up from 976 at 4 PM.
Ida should be running into colder waters in the Gulf of Mexico tonight and tomorrow. Along with this, westerly shear will start to tear the convection apart. Sometime on Tuesday morning, then, Ida will merge with a cold front (in fact the same one that will impact us) and become extratropical, or a cold-core system. Before then, Ida will steadily weaken from tonight on.
As to the track - the front will also steer the system. It will move north, then northeast. Landfall will most likely be on the Florida Panhandle. However, there's still a wide area that could be impacted - anybody from southern Louisiana to Florida should be watching this storm. Winds at landfall will still be upper-end tropical storm force to at worst lower-end CAT 1 hurricane force. Until it landfalls, we can't be sure what kind of damage we'll see. But, I do not think it's a huge deal.
I will be following this closely tonight and tomorrow. Stay tuned...
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Tuesday Evening Forecast - Not Much Change
Good evening everyone,
We're still dealing with the reinforcing shot of cold air that came through last night. We only reached 53 so far (as of 4 PM), and now we're going to start dropping.
By morning, our low of 32 looks easily attained, as we remain clear. There won't be any cloud cover until the morning hours tomorrow, when the next disturbance rotates through the tri-state. With the limited amount of moisture in the air, there's just no chance of steady rainfall in our forecast tomorrow...maybe a sprinkle here or there.
Our temperatures remain cool all the way from tomorrow through Saturday, remaining near or just below normal.
~Jeremy Moses
We're still dealing with the reinforcing shot of cold air that came through last night. We only reached 53 so far (as of 4 PM), and now we're going to start dropping.
By morning, our low of 32 looks easily attained, as we remain clear. There won't be any cloud cover until the morning hours tomorrow, when the next disturbance rotates through the tri-state. With the limited amount of moisture in the air, there's just no chance of steady rainfall in our forecast tomorrow...maybe a sprinkle here or there.
Our temperatures remain cool all the way from tomorrow through Saturday, remaining near or just below normal.
~Jeremy Moses
Winter Outlook 09! (Re-worded 11/3/09)
WINTER OUTLOOK 2009-2010
By Jeremy Moses
It is time for me to publish another Winter Outlook. It is my second year dabbling into this kind of forecasting, so we'll see how it stacks up.
The first thing to do at this point is to look at how October shook out as it pertains to averages. As you'll see, we were above normal in precipitation:
...but below normal with regards to temperatures:
Indeed, the ONLY areas above normal in temperatures were the Gulf Coast and the Southwest!
Soil moisture is another real key to what happens this winter, also - in fact, it tells us the same thing as the previous maps. Much of the eastern US was above the average, and in fact, as of last week, it showed this:
Snow Cover and Solar Activity
Snow cover has been expanding rapidly across the Arctic, and the sea ice is building up there as well. This map illustrates the latest information.
By comparison, where are we normally this time of year?
As you can see, we're mostly near normal. Actually, western Canada seems to be the exception - but, with warm and dry having been the rule there, that's expected. Look for this to increase over the next couple or three weeks.
Solar action has been minimum. I know I have never seen it this quiet solar wise in my 24 years of life. This is expected to continue and the current solar cycle does not even look like it will peak until 2013 or 2014
EL NINO
El Nino is, as usual, a major topic at this time of year. Take a look at these Sea
Surface Temperatures, as recorded TODAY...
As you can see, we've got SST's of 22-24 degrees Celsius just off the west coast of South America. That spells trouble - El Nino style trouble.
I, like many forecasters, am anticipating a weak El Nino this year...although we might start winter with a moderate one. Take a look at this map, showing what usually happens in a weak El Nino year temperature wise. (Analog Years are 1957-58, 1965-66, 1977-78, 1987-88, 1992-93, 1994-95, and 2002-03.)
Due to recent warming and a POSSIBLE westerly wind burst in November (I'll need to see what I can find to support such - but just know it's possible), El Nino could, and should, reach moderate status fairly soon, as I have previously noted. I don't think it gets any stronger than that. A strong El Nino would not bode as well for snow lovers.
All the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) models (save a couple, but I think we can throw those out) suggest we'll see a peak in the first half of the winter.
Again - as there are currently, and I stress currently, no indications of a strong El Nino in the forecast, I really don't expect one. So any solution of a dry and mild winter could be thrown out as of right now. Indeed, there's more evidence suggesting colder and stormier than there is warmer and drier.
QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation)
Negative QBO suggests high latitude blocking in the Northern Hemisphere. The QBO index has been in the negative teens for several months, and I am expecting this to continue. So, a negative phase QBO = blocking = West Ridge/East Trough.
NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)
The NAO was negative a good part of October. As we head through winter, look for changes as usual. However...El Nino tends to impact the NAO. As El Nino weakens, I look for the NAO to completely bottom out - when it does, WATCH OUT...that's when the cold air will flow!
PNA (Pacific-North American Teleconnection Pattern)
When positive, the PNA index (just like the QBO in the opposite phase) supports ridging out west and troughing to the east. That should be the case this winter...I'm thinking we are going to be positive for a good part of the second half of winter, especially in the new year. That, just like the NAO being negative, will let the cold air flow south.
PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)
I am anticipating the PDO to go cool. Whenever we're in a cold phase of the PDO during a weak El Nino, record cold usually results in the Eastern US. It has been rising toward neutral, and even weakly positive in September. However, I expect it to cool and go weakly negative. If a -PDO and -NAO coincide at ANY time this winter - LOOK OUT - especially in the northeast!!
Storm Track
For this winter, I am anticipating the storm track to shift over several months. For most of November, I anticipate the storm track staying north and west of the Ohio Valley. The below map will illustrate this, along with the paragraphs to follow.
By the middle of this month, I am anticipating our stormtrack to shift. That shift places us in the sweet spot around or just after Thanksgiving...and I think our first significant snow could happen right around that time. It will stay that way until the end of December...then a shift to the east coast will take us out of the Apps Runner threat, shifting the heavy snow with it - but we'll be in the cold air by that point. I don't expect another heavy snow threat after the end of December until the beginning of March. More on this below.
So Where Does That Leave Cincinnati and the Ohio Valley??
Here's a monthly breakdown, from November through March.
November - I am anticipating the current pattern to continue through around November 10. After that, the storm track shifts southeast and by the end of the month, is established along the west slope of the Appalachians. At first, the storm track will mean more snow to our northwest, which should allow the colder air to establish itself very well. If I needed to hazard a guess as to first accumulating snow, I will say on or around November 26th. Our last gasp at 70 is likely between the 12th and 18th.
December - The pattern continues to be favorable for snow for Cincinnati. The Pacific Jet should keep the storminess going. The Southeast Ridge could potentially be a problem, we don't know for sure - this tends to wreak all kinds of monstrous havoc with precip types. HOWEVER...I don't anticipate it being a big problem for the area for this December... and so consequently, this should be a good month for snow lovers. If anything, we've got our best shot at a HUGE storm, right here...likely midmonth, just before the track shifts even further south and east. There may be a period or two of milder air, particularly early in the month (50s as opposed to 30s) but it won't get to 70 - I can guarantee you this.
January - I actually look for the stormtrack to be further southeast than we'd like from 1/5 onward, it's going to shift to the east side of the Apps... that means less significant snowfall potential - but the cold air is well established by this time, and I do think we are going to see a lot of clipper type systems that run through quickly but also drop a couple or three inches of snow while they do. That should be enough to put us near average for the month snow wise. This is when the NAO will begin tanking.
February - I expect February to be much the same as January. The storm track transitions to an East Coast track which is still less favorable for big synoptic snows. Even so, the trend favors more clipper systems = another near average month. Also, if we're going to see record cold temperatures - February will be the time, most likely mid-month.
March - We have a pretty good chance at a good size snowfall early in the month. In fact, it's our second chance at a monster storm a la the Blizzard of '08. Am I saying one WILL happen like that? Nope - but it's our second best shot at something close. At that point, however, the transition to spring will begin so milder air will start to come in, leading to less and less snow chances. Eventually, the end of this month should bring the last breath of cold air - and by this time, highs could be in the 50s.
So how much snow will we see? The below map is a pretty good idea.
So, that's my look at winter. I do have the same thoughts as another forecaster, and his thoughts can be read at this link. However, the wording is intended to be my own.
By Jeremy Moses
It is time for me to publish another Winter Outlook. It is my second year dabbling into this kind of forecasting, so we'll see how it stacks up.
The first thing to do at this point is to look at how October shook out as it pertains to averages. As you'll see, we were above normal in precipitation:
...but below normal with regards to temperatures:
Indeed, the ONLY areas above normal in temperatures were the Gulf Coast and the Southwest!
Soil moisture is another real key to what happens this winter, also - in fact, it tells us the same thing as the previous maps. Much of the eastern US was above the average, and in fact, as of last week, it showed this:
Snow Cover and Solar Activity
Snow cover has been expanding rapidly across the Arctic, and the sea ice is building up there as well. This map illustrates the latest information.
By comparison, where are we normally this time of year?
As you can see, we're mostly near normal. Actually, western Canada seems to be the exception - but, with warm and dry having been the rule there, that's expected. Look for this to increase over the next couple or three weeks.
Solar action has been minimum. I know I have never seen it this quiet solar wise in my 24 years of life. This is expected to continue and the current solar cycle does not even look like it will peak until 2013 or 2014
EL NINO
El Nino is, as usual, a major topic at this time of year. Take a look at these Sea
Surface Temperatures, as recorded TODAY...
As you can see, we've got SST's of 22-24 degrees Celsius just off the west coast of South America. That spells trouble - El Nino style trouble.
I, like many forecasters, am anticipating a weak El Nino this year...although we might start winter with a moderate one. Take a look at this map, showing what usually happens in a weak El Nino year temperature wise. (Analog Years are 1957-58, 1965-66, 1977-78, 1987-88, 1992-93, 1994-95, and 2002-03.)
Due to recent warming and a POSSIBLE westerly wind burst in November (I'll need to see what I can find to support such - but just know it's possible), El Nino could, and should, reach moderate status fairly soon, as I have previously noted. I don't think it gets any stronger than that. A strong El Nino would not bode as well for snow lovers.
All the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) models (save a couple, but I think we can throw those out) suggest we'll see a peak in the first half of the winter.
Again - as there are currently, and I stress currently, no indications of a strong El Nino in the forecast, I really don't expect one. So any solution of a dry and mild winter could be thrown out as of right now. Indeed, there's more evidence suggesting colder and stormier than there is warmer and drier.
QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation)
Negative QBO suggests high latitude blocking in the Northern Hemisphere. The QBO index has been in the negative teens for several months, and I am expecting this to continue. So, a negative phase QBO = blocking = West Ridge/East Trough.
NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)
The NAO was negative a good part of October. As we head through winter, look for changes as usual. However...El Nino tends to impact the NAO. As El Nino weakens, I look for the NAO to completely bottom out - when it does, WATCH OUT...that's when the cold air will flow!
PNA (Pacific-North American Teleconnection Pattern)
When positive, the PNA index (just like the QBO in the opposite phase) supports ridging out west and troughing to the east. That should be the case this winter...I'm thinking we are going to be positive for a good part of the second half of winter, especially in the new year. That, just like the NAO being negative, will let the cold air flow south.
PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)
I am anticipating the PDO to go cool. Whenever we're in a cold phase of the PDO during a weak El Nino, record cold usually results in the Eastern US. It has been rising toward neutral, and even weakly positive in September. However, I expect it to cool and go weakly negative. If a -PDO and -NAO coincide at ANY time this winter - LOOK OUT - especially in the northeast!!
Storm Track
For this winter, I am anticipating the storm track to shift over several months. For most of November, I anticipate the storm track staying north and west of the Ohio Valley. The below map will illustrate this, along with the paragraphs to follow.
By the middle of this month, I am anticipating our stormtrack to shift. That shift places us in the sweet spot around or just after Thanksgiving...and I think our first significant snow could happen right around that time. It will stay that way until the end of December...then a shift to the east coast will take us out of the Apps Runner threat, shifting the heavy snow with it - but we'll be in the cold air by that point. I don't expect another heavy snow threat after the end of December until the beginning of March. More on this below.
So Where Does That Leave Cincinnati and the Ohio Valley??
Here's a monthly breakdown, from November through March.
November - I am anticipating the current pattern to continue through around November 10. After that, the storm track shifts southeast and by the end of the month, is established along the west slope of the Appalachians. At first, the storm track will mean more snow to our northwest, which should allow the colder air to establish itself very well. If I needed to hazard a guess as to first accumulating snow, I will say on or around November 26th. Our last gasp at 70 is likely between the 12th and 18th.
December - The pattern continues to be favorable for snow for Cincinnati. The Pacific Jet should keep the storminess going. The Southeast Ridge could potentially be a problem, we don't know for sure - this tends to wreak all kinds of monstrous havoc with precip types. HOWEVER...I don't anticipate it being a big problem for the area for this December... and so consequently, this should be a good month for snow lovers. If anything, we've got our best shot at a HUGE storm, right here...likely midmonth, just before the track shifts even further south and east. There may be a period or two of milder air, particularly early in the month (50s as opposed to 30s) but it won't get to 70 - I can guarantee you this.
January - I actually look for the stormtrack to be further southeast than we'd like from 1/5 onward, it's going to shift to the east side of the Apps... that means less significant snowfall potential - but the cold air is well established by this time, and I do think we are going to see a lot of clipper type systems that run through quickly but also drop a couple or three inches of snow while they do. That should be enough to put us near average for the month snow wise. This is when the NAO will begin tanking.
February - I expect February to be much the same as January. The storm track transitions to an East Coast track which is still less favorable for big synoptic snows. Even so, the trend favors more clipper systems = another near average month. Also, if we're going to see record cold temperatures - February will be the time, most likely mid-month.
March - We have a pretty good chance at a good size snowfall early in the month. In fact, it's our second chance at a monster storm a la the Blizzard of '08. Am I saying one WILL happen like that? Nope - but it's our second best shot at something close. At that point, however, the transition to spring will begin so milder air will start to come in, leading to less and less snow chances. Eventually, the end of this month should bring the last breath of cold air - and by this time, highs could be in the 50s.
So how much snow will we see? The below map is a pretty good idea.
So, that's my look at winter. I do have the same thoughts as another forecaster, and his thoughts can be read at this link. However, the wording is intended to be my own.
Dry Week Ahead...Mostly At Least.
What a weekend we had here in the Tri-State!
It was 80 degrees on Friday. By Sunday morning, it was FIFTY degrees colder! What a change! A change that, I'm sure, is wreaking havoc with people's bodies (it is yours truly's at the moment as I type this).
But, there's no more large, 50 degree temperature swings in the forecast, at least not like that, for a while...and we probably won't see 80 again this year.
We're going to be set up in a progressive upper air pattern this week. Anything that comes through, is going to be moving very quickly. The thing is...most of what systems do move through, will be dry.
I really do not see any rain in our forecast in Cincinnati this week. As a matter of fact, the fronts coming through tonight as well as Wednesday night, will be dry. So, increases in clouds will occur...but don't expect any rain as there's just not going to be enough 1) upper air support and 2) significant moisture.
Temperatures will stay below average the rest of the week...and then a modest increase over the weekend into next week.
So, in short: No rain, cool temperatures this week...still no rain, and warmer temperatures over the weekend into early next week.
Enjoy your week!
It was 80 degrees on Friday. By Sunday morning, it was FIFTY degrees colder! What a change! A change that, I'm sure, is wreaking havoc with people's bodies (it is yours truly's at the moment as I type this).
But, there's no more large, 50 degree temperature swings in the forecast, at least not like that, for a while...and we probably won't see 80 again this year.
We're going to be set up in a progressive upper air pattern this week. Anything that comes through, is going to be moving very quickly. The thing is...most of what systems do move through, will be dry.
I really do not see any rain in our forecast in Cincinnati this week. As a matter of fact, the fronts coming through tonight as well as Wednesday night, will be dry. So, increases in clouds will occur...but don't expect any rain as there's just not going to be enough 1) upper air support and 2) significant moisture.
Temperatures will stay below average the rest of the week...and then a modest increase over the weekend into next week.
So, in short: No rain, cool temperatures this week...still no rain, and warmer temperatures over the weekend into early next week.
Enjoy your week!
Friday, October 30, 2009
Forecast Update: Clouds Increasing, Rainy Night Ahead...
The rain is on its way into the area right now as this radar shows...
I anticipate the rain moving in to southeast Indiana shortly, into the metro by 9 PM, then into the eastern FA by 11.
I still expect 1-2" of rain to fall across our area by Saturday afternoon.
The question of rain on Saturday night appears to be answered...there should be no rain for Trick-or-Treaters tomorrow night, which is good news. We will be cold tomorrow night however...lows should be around 35.
YOUR FORECAST:
Tonight: Widespread rain developing, west to east, from about 9 PM on - showers are possible even before then. Low: 50
Saturday: Rain likely in the morning...tapering later. High: 56
Saturday Night: Clearing. Cold! Low: 35
Sunday: Sunny, cool. High: 54
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, cold! Low: 34
All Next Week: Partly to mostly sunny. Still cool. Lows in the middle and upper 30s, highs between 55 and 60.
I anticipate the rain moving in to southeast Indiana shortly, into the metro by 9 PM, then into the eastern FA by 11.
I still expect 1-2" of rain to fall across our area by Saturday afternoon.
The question of rain on Saturday night appears to be answered...there should be no rain for Trick-or-Treaters tomorrow night, which is good news. We will be cold tomorrow night however...lows should be around 35.
YOUR FORECAST:
Tonight: Widespread rain developing, west to east, from about 9 PM on - showers are possible even before then. Low: 50
Saturday: Rain likely in the morning...tapering later. High: 56
Saturday Night: Clearing. Cold! Low: 35
Sunday: Sunny, cool. High: 54
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, cold! Low: 34
All Next Week: Partly to mostly sunny. Still cool. Lows in the middle and upper 30s, highs between 55 and 60.
Friday: Rain Moving In
It's going to be a very very rainy night tonight - and we may have some showers linger into Halloween.
Here's the setup: We have warm air advecting into the Tri-State today. That warm air will send our temperatures soaring to the lower 70s. Middle 70s should be off to our south, but nonetheless it will be a warm day.
The upper trough over the Plains won't move in until tonight, and that means the rains won't become steady until tonight, either. There will be what we call "Warm Air Advection showers" this afternoon, as the warm air rises, moisture condenses and cools and that should produce rain showers.
Tonight, in comes the front. That will bring rain both pre- and post-frontal. The post-frontal rains will be extended due to lift, which will be enough for 1-2" of rain across the Cincinnati Tri-State area tonight.
After this, I expect rain to end west to east on Saturday. There have been some indications that rain showers may linger into Halloween Night - but I am not buying into them, and I'm keeping Halloween Night dry for the trick-or-treaters.
Past that, models want to bring a shortwave trough through Northwest Ohio Monday. I don't think Cincinnati sees anything from this - so I'm keeping the forecast dry from Saturday night, through next week.
FORECAST FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
Today: Cloudy with a few showers, mainly west, late. High: 71
Tonight: Rain. Low: 50
Saturday: Rain tapering by late day. High: 55
Saturday Night: Great night for Trick-or-Treaters! Cloudy early, clearing overnight. Low: 39.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. High: 54
Here's the setup: We have warm air advecting into the Tri-State today. That warm air will send our temperatures soaring to the lower 70s. Middle 70s should be off to our south, but nonetheless it will be a warm day.
The upper trough over the Plains won't move in until tonight, and that means the rains won't become steady until tonight, either. There will be what we call "Warm Air Advection showers" this afternoon, as the warm air rises, moisture condenses and cools and that should produce rain showers.
Tonight, in comes the front. That will bring rain both pre- and post-frontal. The post-frontal rains will be extended due to lift, which will be enough for 1-2" of rain across the Cincinnati Tri-State area tonight.
After this, I expect rain to end west to east on Saturday. There have been some indications that rain showers may linger into Halloween Night - but I am not buying into them, and I'm keeping Halloween Night dry for the trick-or-treaters.
Past that, models want to bring a shortwave trough through Northwest Ohio Monday. I don't think Cincinnati sees anything from this - so I'm keeping the forecast dry from Saturday night, through next week.
FORECAST FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
Today: Cloudy with a few showers, mainly west, late. High: 71
Tonight: Rain. Low: 50
Saturday: Rain tapering by late day. High: 55
Saturday Night: Great night for Trick-or-Treaters! Cloudy early, clearing overnight. Low: 39.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. High: 54
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Tuesday: Not Looking Good Tonight, Again on Friday
Good morning friends,
Friday is not looking like a good day in terms of weather...but I'll get to that shortly.
Taking a look first at today... This morning, the Tri-State is dry but clouds are overspreading the area. But look at all that rain to the south and west!
That rain moves in this afternoon and tonight. It should reach areas like Carrollton, Dry Ridge, and Falmouth before rush hour. After that, the metro area should see the rain by this evening, and the entire area will be socked in by the midnight hour. Rain will then continue through the night and early Wednesday looks soaking wet...rush hour could be dicey.
As we head through Wednesday, clouds will dominate most of the day, but we could see partial clearing late in the day along and west of the Indiana borders with Ohio and Kentucky. I'd say at this point the western half of our area clears out partially...while the eastern half stays cloudy.
The bigger potential problem could be on Friday. After a dry and warm Thursday (temperatures could be around 70 - and then really skyrocketing on Friday, possibly mid 70s across the southern reaches of our coverage area?), another cold front approaches on Friday. We'll definitely be in the warm sector. The contrast between our 70+ degree warm air and colder, 50-degree air to the northwest should provide a good bit of instability. As a consequence, depending on how much sunshine we get, we might see some severe weather on Friday and Friday night.
Winds will also pick up late day on Friday out of the southeast. Southeast winds tend to make it harder for rain to occur, so I think we do stay dry a good portion of Friday before we finally saturate the air and bring rain in late Friday afternoon.
As it looks right now, Saturday looks wet for us, before we dry it out on Sunday and drop temperatures into the 50s.
Make it a great day,
Forecaster Jeremy Moses
Friday is not looking like a good day in terms of weather...but I'll get to that shortly.
Taking a look first at today... This morning, the Tri-State is dry but clouds are overspreading the area. But look at all that rain to the south and west!
That rain moves in this afternoon and tonight. It should reach areas like Carrollton, Dry Ridge, and Falmouth before rush hour. After that, the metro area should see the rain by this evening, and the entire area will be socked in by the midnight hour. Rain will then continue through the night and early Wednesday looks soaking wet...rush hour could be dicey.
As we head through Wednesday, clouds will dominate most of the day, but we could see partial clearing late in the day along and west of the Indiana borders with Ohio and Kentucky. I'd say at this point the western half of our area clears out partially...while the eastern half stays cloudy.
The bigger potential problem could be on Friday. After a dry and warm Thursday (temperatures could be around 70 - and then really skyrocketing on Friday, possibly mid 70s across the southern reaches of our coverage area?), another cold front approaches on Friday. We'll definitely be in the warm sector. The contrast between our 70+ degree warm air and colder, 50-degree air to the northwest should provide a good bit of instability. As a consequence, depending on how much sunshine we get, we might see some severe weather on Friday and Friday night.
Winds will also pick up late day on Friday out of the southeast. Southeast winds tend to make it harder for rain to occur, so I think we do stay dry a good portion of Friday before we finally saturate the air and bring rain in late Friday afternoon.
As it looks right now, Saturday looks wet for us, before we dry it out on Sunday and drop temperatures into the 50s.
Make it a great day,
Forecaster Jeremy Moses
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Later Tonight: Winter Outlook!
I'll be issuing my winter outlook later tonight, probably around 10 PM. So look for that!
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You can follow my tweets on Twitter. The Twitter feed is at right...
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