As of 5:00 AM, temperatures ranged from 30 in Hamilton, OH to 36 at the Cincinnati/NKY International Airport to 43 in Jackson, Kentucky. 30-36 is the general range around town right now (the center of Cincinnati, however, may be in the upper 30s or lower 40s).
We'll remain sunny today as fog that is currently hanging over the Tri-State burns off by 10 AM. Watch out north of town if you're traveling this morning, however...some of this fog is actually FREEZING FOG and will freeze on bridges and overpasses!
As we go through the day, we'll be sunny with highs around 55. Tonight, watch for patchy fog to develop again and again there may be problems with freezing fog in valleys north of downtown if temperatures dip low enough. For the rest, there might be some frost tomorrow morning.
Sunday looks great as well with highs approaching 60.
The next chance of rain slides in Monday and Tuesday with a 30 percent chance of rain both days and highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Then...here comes the first winter blast.
The models indicate some colder air developing and sinking southbound into the Tri-State on Wednesday. This is the catalyst for changes in our pattern. By Thanksgiving Day, another system will be moving in. Right now, it is too early to say with total certainty what precipitation type the Tri-State will see. But...at least one model wants to put something of a mix of rain, snow and maybe ice pellets into the Tri-State Thanksgiving Night.
Here's how the GFS depicts Sea Level Pressure, the past 6 hours of precipitation, and 850 mb (or 5,000 feet) temps at 144 hours (or 7 PM Thanksgiving Evening) courtesy of NCEP as of the 7 PM model run. (With these, you can click the small version to receive the full resolution version) Note where the 0C line is at 5000 feet:
Here's the model run for those same parameters at 150 hours (Again, click for hi resolution).
Oh and here are the 2 meter temps and 10 meter winds with precip for those same two time periods also courtesy NCEP (As before, you can click these to get full resolution):
Those 2m temps wouldn't cause too much concern - but, if we're cold/cool on Wednesday, this could change.
IF the snowfall comes to pass, it won't amount to any significant accumulation. Could that change, sure...but it looks like my prediction of a significant snow near Thanksgiving could bust. Again - still too early to say, so I could be eating crow on Black Friday instead of leftover turkey...but hey, I've given it a good try, haven't I???
The pattern begins to change...and there's chances for signficant snow past that, but as they are so far out that you can't rely on the models to interpret them I'll leave that out for now. Watch out though if anything starts showing a good storm for on or near December 3-4, especially if the possibility shows up after Thanksgiving! A recent model run teased that possibility - so I will be watching to see if it brings this back!
Where else will you get this kind of analysis for FREE? Not at one of the "other" independent sources in town...they charge for this.
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