By Jeremy Moses
It is time for me to publish another Winter Outlook. It is my second year dabbling into this kind of forecasting, so we'll see how it stacks up.
The first thing to do at this point is to look at how October shook out as it pertains to averages. As you'll see, we were above normal in precipitation:
...but below normal with regards to temperatures:
Indeed, the ONLY areas above normal in temperatures were the Gulf Coast and the Southwest!
Soil moisture is another real key to what happens this winter, also - in fact, it tells us the same thing as the previous maps. Much of the eastern US was above the average, and in fact, as of last week, it showed this:
Snow Cover and Solar Activity
Snow cover has been expanding rapidly across the Arctic, and the sea ice is building up there as well. This map illustrates the latest information.
By comparison, where are we normally this time of year?
As you can see, we're mostly near normal. Actually, western Canada seems to be the exception - but, with warm and dry having been the rule there, that's expected. Look for this to increase over the next couple or three weeks.
Solar action has been minimum. I know I have never seen it this quiet solar wise in my 24 years of life. This is expected to continue and the current solar cycle does not even look like it will peak until 2013 or 2014
EL NINO
El Nino is, as usual, a major topic at this time of year. Take a look at these Sea
Surface Temperatures, as recorded TODAY...
As you can see, we've got SST's of 22-24 degrees Celsius just off the west coast of South America. That spells trouble - El Nino style trouble.
I, like many forecasters, am anticipating a weak El Nino this year...although we might start winter with a moderate one. Take a look at this map, showing what usually happens in a weak El Nino year temperature wise. (Analog Years are 1957-58, 1965-66, 1977-78, 1987-88, 1992-93, 1994-95, and 2002-03.)
Due to recent warming and a POSSIBLE westerly wind burst in November (I'll need to see what I can find to support such - but just know it's possible), El Nino could, and should, reach moderate status fairly soon, as I have previously noted. I don't think it gets any stronger than that. A strong El Nino would not bode as well for snow lovers.
All the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) models (save a couple, but I think we can throw those out) suggest we'll see a peak in the first half of the winter.
Again - as there are currently, and I stress currently, no indications of a strong El Nino in the forecast, I really don't expect one. So any solution of a dry and mild winter could be thrown out as of right now. Indeed, there's more evidence suggesting colder and stormier than there is warmer and drier.
QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation)
Negative QBO suggests high latitude blocking in the Northern Hemisphere. The QBO index has been in the negative teens for several months, and I am expecting this to continue. So, a negative phase QBO = blocking = West Ridge/East Trough.
NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)
The NAO was negative a good part of October. As we head through winter, look for changes as usual. However...El Nino tends to impact the NAO. As El Nino weakens, I look for the NAO to completely bottom out - when it does, WATCH OUT...that's when the cold air will flow!
PNA (Pacific-North American Teleconnection Pattern)
When positive, the PNA index (just like the QBO in the opposite phase) supports ridging out west and troughing to the east. That should be the case this winter...I'm thinking we are going to be positive for a good part of the second half of winter, especially in the new year. That, just like the NAO being negative, will let the cold air flow south.
PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)
I am anticipating the PDO to go cool. Whenever we're in a cold phase of the PDO during a weak El Nino, record cold usually results in the Eastern US. It has been rising toward neutral, and even weakly positive in September. However, I expect it to cool and go weakly negative. If a -PDO and -NAO coincide at ANY time this winter - LOOK OUT - especially in the northeast!!
Storm Track
For this winter, I am anticipating the storm track to shift over several months. For most of November, I anticipate the storm track staying north and west of the Ohio Valley. The below map will illustrate this, along with the paragraphs to follow.
By the middle of this month, I am anticipating our stormtrack to shift. That shift places us in the sweet spot around or just after Thanksgiving...and I think our first significant snow could happen right around that time. It will stay that way until the end of December...then a shift to the east coast will take us out of the Apps Runner threat, shifting the heavy snow with it - but we'll be in the cold air by that point. I don't expect another heavy snow threat after the end of December until the beginning of March. More on this below.
So Where Does That Leave Cincinnati and the Ohio Valley??
Here's a monthly breakdown, from November through March.
November - I am anticipating the current pattern to continue through around November 10. After that, the storm track shifts southeast and by the end of the month, is established along the west slope of the Appalachians. At first, the storm track will mean more snow to our northwest, which should allow the colder air to establish itself very well. If I needed to hazard a guess as to first accumulating snow, I will say on or around November 26th. Our last gasp at 70 is likely between the 12th and 18th.
December - The pattern continues to be favorable for snow for Cincinnati. The Pacific Jet should keep the storminess going. The Southeast Ridge could potentially be a problem, we don't know for sure - this tends to wreak all kinds of monstrous havoc with precip types. HOWEVER...I don't anticipate it being a big problem for the area for this December... and so consequently, this should be a good month for snow lovers. If anything, we've got our best shot at a HUGE storm, right here...likely midmonth, just before the track shifts even further south and east. There may be a period or two of milder air, particularly early in the month (50s as opposed to 30s) but it won't get to 70 - I can guarantee you this.
January - I actually look for the stormtrack to be further southeast than we'd like from 1/5 onward, it's going to shift to the east side of the Apps... that means less significant snowfall potential - but the cold air is well established by this time, and I do think we are going to see a lot of clipper type systems that run through quickly but also drop a couple or three inches of snow while they do. That should be enough to put us near average for the month snow wise. This is when the NAO will begin tanking.
February - I expect February to be much the same as January. The storm track transitions to an East Coast track which is still less favorable for big synoptic snows. Even so, the trend favors more clipper systems = another near average month. Also, if we're going to see record cold temperatures - February will be the time, most likely mid-month.
March - We have a pretty good chance at a good size snowfall early in the month. In fact, it's our second chance at a monster storm a la the Blizzard of '08. Am I saying one WILL happen like that? Nope - but it's our second best shot at something close. At that point, however, the transition to spring will begin so milder air will start to come in, leading to less and less snow chances. Eventually, the end of this month should bring the last breath of cold air - and by this time, highs could be in the 50s.
So how much snow will we see? The below map is a pretty good idea.
So, that's my look at winter. I do have the same thoughts as another forecaster, and his thoughts can be read at this link. However, the wording is intended to be my own.
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