Checking on the Three Storm Threats.

Good morning folks,

We're two days into the short week - and things aren't looking as interesting for next Tuesday as previously thought - but still could see our first accumulating snow.

Let's back up though and deal with the Thanksgiving storm first - which should begin to impact our area tonight but more so tomorrow.

Most models are coming to agreement with the main feature for tonight - a shortwave that sweeps through our area sometime tonight should bring about 40-50 percent coverage of rain to our area. The best chance is NORTH of Cincinnati and Dayton - but even from Dayton south has a good chance. As I said probably 40-50 percent coverage at any time tonight. Leftover rainfall could be a problem tomorrow afternoon - but I don't see issues other than wet roads for Thanksgiving travelers with this part of the storm.

The true main event comes tomorrow night through Friday. There will be a second shortwave with an associated cold front on Thanksgiving, and temperature profiles at the start are favorable for a cold rain. So for your Thanksgiving dinner plans or those who have short distance travel plans, keep in mind roads will be wet. Then, behind the front temperatures plummet into the low 30s or even upper 20s and temperature profiles suggest the rain will mix with then change over to snow showers for Thanksgiving night into Friday morning. We then dry out Friday afternoon but it remains cold with highs probably barely cracking 40. Saturday, the NWS wants to send temperatures into the upper 40s but I'm going to pull back just a bit and suggest middle 40s. Same for Sunday - I'm holding off the 50 degree temps until Monday so upper 40s looks okay there.

Then the next event comes on Monday. Right now, the 0Z GFS wants to bring the low over Cincinnati and this results in rain with a changeover to snow and maybe a few inches on the backside of the low. This seems as good a solution as any, but I am not going to be pinned down right now on track. This has 6 days to change as it would begin to affect the Greater Cincinnati area on Monday night.

There are signs that the storm behind THAT, around December 6th, could be game on for a really good snowfall - but that is even FURTHER out and so I will just mention the possibility.

Regardless of what these storms do next week, the middle of the month is GAME ON for cold, arctic air as it looks right now. Each storm over these next 14 days brings colder and colder air south across the middle of the US and I think the 12/6 storm would likely be "the big one" I spoke of in my winter outlook earlier this month.

Bottom line: Rain the next few days, changing to snow on Thanksgiving night then a rain to snow scenario (as it looks right now) next Monday-Tuesday, then a bigger snow possible around 12/6, even as we get colder and colder.

Have a great Tuesday everyone,

Jeremy Moses