Monday, November 30, 2009

Thoughts Ahead of a Couple More Snow Threats

There are yet MORE snow threats to track, one of which is out 11 days into the future so we won't spend a whole lot of time there.

The first one is Thursday into Friday. The setup has a low tracking through the Ohio Valley Wednesday into Thursday. At this time I am calling for a track from Louisville, through Cincinnati, then into Central Ohio. This would bring rain into the area Wednesday afternoon, which should mix with then change over to snow on Thursday morning. Then, an upper level trough should settle in Thursday afternoon. That would bring a northwesterly fetch and continued snow showers with a quick disturbance to enhance the action on Friday morning before tapering.

At this point in time, I DO NOT see major accumulation with this. Maybe 1" on grassy surfaces, nothing should stick to roads. So, your commutes to and from work Thursday, as well as morning drive on Friday, should be okay barring a flash freeze (which could happen).

Regardless, this sets the stage for at least one more system Sunday into Monday which again should be rain to a quick inch of backside snows - and then we've got the cold air in place and right now the long range models have an idea of a storm sliding up to our east on the 10th which would bring potentially the first 2"+ snow to our area. Too early right now to even speculate, but with the cold air in place indications are that it WOULD be all snow. Stay tuned...

NOTE: Per John Gumm at WKRC-TV 12/Cincinnati, the 12z models look "horrible" for snow, with the North American Model showing nothing at all snow wise. Stay tuned...we'll analyze that output later today.

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