Briefly, before I get to the meat of my discussion on Hurricane Ida, let's briefly talk Tri-State Weather... it looks like a decent day for tomorrow. A cold front comes through Tuesday and knocks us back about 15 degrees, with highs in the 50s from Wednesday on. That front might actually be mostly dry - I don't see a lot of moisture in the air, much less other dynamics we need for widespread rain.
Now, to Ida.
Hurricane Ida at this hour is located 445 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum winds are at 105 miles an hour, with gusts to CAT 3 strength. However, we don't expect it to become a CAT 3. In fact, it may be weakening now - pressure is 979 millibars, up from 976 at 4 PM.
Ida should be running into colder waters in the Gulf of Mexico tonight and tomorrow. Along with this, westerly shear will start to tear the convection apart. Sometime on Tuesday morning, then, Ida will merge with a cold front (in fact the same one that will impact us) and become extratropical, or a cold-core system. Before then, Ida will steadily weaken from tonight on.
As to the track - the front will also steer the system. It will move north, then northeast. Landfall will most likely be on the Florida Panhandle. However, there's still a wide area that could be impacted - anybody from southern Louisiana to Florida should be watching this storm. Winds at landfall will still be upper-end tropical storm force to at worst lower-end CAT 1 hurricane force. Until it landfalls, we can't be sure what kind of damage we'll see. But, I do not think it's a huge deal.
I will be following this closely tonight and tomorrow. Stay tuned...
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