4:45 AM CVG 14° F, Wind Chill 6° F (as of the 4 AM observation)
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CINCINNATI AREA, NOW EXPANDED TO INCLUDE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM LATE TONIGHT TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT
The models came into even BETTER agreement late in the evening last night and the NWS has expanded the Winter Storm Watch.
All indications put the Tri-State area in a really good (or bad, depending on how you see it) spot for 5-8" of snow at LEAST with isolated higher totals if an area sits under a heavy band of snow for a period of time, and now expand the possibility northward to include folks along I-70.
Folks... this one will be a paralyzing storm for some areas. Normally you need a foot or more, but with the last three storms each dropping 4-8" across our area... we've already got over a foot on the ground some places! I am sounding the alarm here... most if not ALL schools will be closed, some roads will become out and out impassable, and level 3 snow emergencies will be more widespread. (In the last storm, Franklin and Ripley counties in southeast Indiana each declared level 3 snow emergencies at one point.)
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Saturday, February 13, 2010
WINTER WEATHER ALERT: Snow Still On Track Tomorrow-Monday Night
4:10 PM CVG 27, Partly Cloudy
WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED BY NWS WILMINGTON, OH FOR ALL AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BROOKVILLE, IN TO WILMINGTON TO LOGAN, OHIO FROM SUNDAY EVENING TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT
The snow is still on track to hit the Cincinnati Tri-State beginning late Sunday afternoon and continuing all the way into Monday evening. Models finally have come into decent agreement, and almost all paint a 4-8" swath somewhere between the river and I-64, with less either side of that.
A 50-75 mile movement north or south could mean the difference between 4-8" and 2-4" or less... so keep it here for the latest.
WINTER WEATHER ALERT: Snow Possible Tomorrow Night/Monday
4:30 AM Saturday Morning - CVG 18° F, Light Snow Reported
Fog could be an issue across areas west of I-75 this morning. I am monitoring this situation extremely closely.
Yes, that's right... we're looking at yet ANOTHER winter storm in the Ohio Valley, with yet MORE snow accumulations.
Here's the setup: A small, compact low will organize west and southwest of Cincinnati tomorrow, down near Paducah, with a warm front across central Kentucky. The low is forecast to take a track across Kentucky on Sunday night into Monday. The models are differing as to how far north or south this will be... as a direct result differing on amount of liquid forecast, and as a result of this, we do not know how much snow will fall - and won't until Sunday morning.
The warm front may possibly be enough to bring at least a dusting of snowfall in the latter half of Sunday afternoon, but the main event is forecast to unfold Sunday night through Monday as the low takes its track across Kentucky, passing south of Cincinnati, somewhere within 40 miles of Lexington.
Due to the cold air at the upper levels... it will not take much moist air to produce significant snowfall across portions of Kentucky, far southern Ohio and extreme southeast Indiana. The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (or QPF) on at least one model indicated anywhere from a quarter to a half of an inch. Temperatures are forecast to be in the 20s through the event. The result will be a snow-to-liquid ratio of 15 inches snow to 1 inch liquid. With these ratios at .25"-.5" liquid QPF... expect anywhere around 4-7" of snow.
Folks...I cannot emphasize enough that this situation is very fluid as of the time of this post (4:20 AM Saturday). We do not know exactly where this low will track... so we do not know where the axis of heaviest snowfall will be. If you are anywhere between the Ohio River and Interstate 64 in the northern half of Kentucky, however... we can reasonably and confidently say there WILL be snowfall and it COULD be significant (4" or more)! Stay tuned, as I will update you on this VERY fluid weather situation. Updates will be between 2-4 PM Saturday, 2-4 AM Sunday morning and again between 2-3 PM Sunday afternoon, or as needed depending on what the models indicate.
-- Jeremy Moses
Fog could be an issue across areas west of I-75 this morning. I am monitoring this situation extremely closely.
Yes, that's right... we're looking at yet ANOTHER winter storm in the Ohio Valley, with yet MORE snow accumulations.
Here's the setup: A small, compact low will organize west and southwest of Cincinnati tomorrow, down near Paducah, with a warm front across central Kentucky. The low is forecast to take a track across Kentucky on Sunday night into Monday. The models are differing as to how far north or south this will be... as a direct result differing on amount of liquid forecast, and as a result of this, we do not know how much snow will fall - and won't until Sunday morning.
The warm front may possibly be enough to bring at least a dusting of snowfall in the latter half of Sunday afternoon, but the main event is forecast to unfold Sunday night through Monday as the low takes its track across Kentucky, passing south of Cincinnati, somewhere within 40 miles of Lexington.
Due to the cold air at the upper levels... it will not take much moist air to produce significant snowfall across portions of Kentucky, far southern Ohio and extreme southeast Indiana. The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (or QPF) on at least one model indicated anywhere from a quarter to a half of an inch. Temperatures are forecast to be in the 20s through the event. The result will be a snow-to-liquid ratio of 15 inches snow to 1 inch liquid. With these ratios at .25"-.5" liquid QPF... expect anywhere around 4-7" of snow.
Folks...I cannot emphasize enough that this situation is very fluid as of the time of this post (4:20 AM Saturday). We do not know exactly where this low will track... so we do not know where the axis of heaviest snowfall will be. If you are anywhere between the Ohio River and Interstate 64 in the northern half of Kentucky, however... we can reasonably and confidently say there WILL be snowfall and it COULD be significant (4" or more)! Stay tuned, as I will update you on this VERY fluid weather situation. Updates will be between 2-4 PM Saturday, 2-4 AM Sunday morning and again between 2-3 PM Sunday afternoon, or as needed depending on what the models indicate.
-- Jeremy Moses
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
WINTER STORM UPDATE: Snow Continues; Blowing/Drifting Occurring!
2:10 AM CVG 10° F, LIGHT SNOW, WINDS WEST @ 14 MPH G 21 MPH WIND CHILL -6°
WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ALL AREAS
WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ALL AREAS
The weather continues to be nasty across our area at this hour (2 AM). Snow is moving across the Tri-State area and will continue all morning.
I anticipate that 1-3" of snow will have fallen in addition to the 4-6" that fell yesterday across the area. Storm total accumulations between 5-9 inches are LIKELY with more further north and less south.
Winds will also cause blowing and drifting snow especially in open areas and along north/south roadways which will cause roads to become VERY hazardous.
Many school districts across Northern Kentucky (INCLUDING Boone, Kenton and Campbell County Schools) have already decided to close for a second straight day, as have most in Southeast Indiana. Find those lists on the website of your favorite local radio or television station.
Stay tuned for the latest.
Jeremy Moses
Monday, February 8, 2010
ALERT: WINTER STORM WATCH Tonight-Wednesday Afternoon, Upgrade LIKELY This Afternoon
A Winter Storm WATCH is in effect from 12 midnight tonight to 6 PM Wednesday for most of the NWS Wilmington, Ohio forecast area (excluding the far southeastern counties) and WILL BE UPGRADED later this afternoon...Winter Storm WARNINGS issued by Louisville, Indianapolis and Jackson, KY NWS offices as of 12:50 PM...
12:50 PM: CVG - 22 F (as of noon observation), Mostly Cloudy
Another significant winter storm...the second in the last 5 days...will impact the Ohio Valley tonight through Wednesday. A surface low down south will track from Louisiana up through Central Ohio by Tuesday afternoon. An upper low will track through the OV as well, moving across the Tri-State Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.
Models have been trending colder for the Cincinnati and Dayton areas and higher on snow amounts also. The 12Z guidance that just came in indicates a solid 6"+ of snowfall across the Cincinnati metro, and another 8"+ storm for Dayton. In fact at a 10 to 1 snow to liquid ratio the Global Forecast System model wants to put down 7" of snowfall at Cincinnati.
Consequently, here is what I expect total-wise:
North and Northwest of Cincinnati, including Dayton: 8-12", highest near and NORTH of Interstate 70
Cincinnati proper, including areas along and 30 mi N/S of line from Columbus, IN through Hillsboro, OH: 6-8". Could be minor mixing.
South and Southeast: 4-6", mixing is probably confined to areas far south and east.
12:50 PM: CVG - 22 F (as of noon observation), Mostly Cloudy
Another significant winter storm...the second in the last 5 days...will impact the Ohio Valley tonight through Wednesday. A surface low down south will track from Louisiana up through Central Ohio by Tuesday afternoon. An upper low will track through the OV as well, moving across the Tri-State Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.
Models have been trending colder for the Cincinnati and Dayton areas and higher on snow amounts also. The 12Z guidance that just came in indicates a solid 6"+ of snowfall across the Cincinnati metro, and another 8"+ storm for Dayton. In fact at a 10 to 1 snow to liquid ratio the Global Forecast System model wants to put down 7" of snowfall at Cincinnati.
Consequently, here is what I expect total-wise:
North and Northwest of Cincinnati, including Dayton: 8-12", highest near and NORTH of Interstate 70
Cincinnati proper, including areas along and 30 mi N/S of line from Columbus, IN through Hillsboro, OH: 6-8". Could be minor mixing.
South and Southeast: 4-6", mixing is probably confined to areas far south and east.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
WINTER STORM WARNING: Significant Snow On The Way!
10 PM: CVG 35 F, Overcast
WINTER STORM WARNING ALL AREAS 4 AM TOMORROW TO 6 PM SATURDAY
I'm keeping this short - as I'm preparing to head to Dayton, Ohio tomorrow.
Forecast is still on track as previously talked about. Low pressure currently near New Orleans will move up the east coast. At the same time we will see an inverted trough move through and a secondary low develops in the Tennessee Valley. Moisture will be thrown into this storm from both the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic at the same time. An upper level low will track directly over us, which will enhance things on Friday night especially.
Basically, the technical setup favors the following timeline:
2-6 AM: Precipitation moves in from south to north. It will be a mix of snow, sleet and maybe freezing rain - more in the way of snow to the north.
6 AM-6 PM: This will get tricky depending on where you are. If you're in the northern counties of the Cincinnati area and up to Dayton, you will continue to see more snow than anything else but still a mix of snow with first freezing rain and sleet, then rain. South of that, expect rain to mix in more and more the further south you go. If you're in the far southern counties, you could even go over to plain rain for a time.
6 PM Friday to 6 PM Saturday: Expect the changeover to all snow to occur in areas where it hasn't already. If you're north of Dayton you may be all snow through the entire event.
Total Accumulations:
Metro Area (or along and ~25 miles north and south of a Versailles to Hillsboro line): 4-7"
North suburbs to I-70: 5-9"
South of line from Vevay, Indiana to Augusta, Kentucky to Maysville, Kentucky: 2-5"
WINTER STORM WARNING ALL AREAS 4 AM TOMORROW TO 6 PM SATURDAY
I'm keeping this short - as I'm preparing to head to Dayton, Ohio tomorrow.
Forecast is still on track as previously talked about. Low pressure currently near New Orleans will move up the east coast. At the same time we will see an inverted trough move through and a secondary low develops in the Tennessee Valley. Moisture will be thrown into this storm from both the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic at the same time. An upper level low will track directly over us, which will enhance things on Friday night especially.
Basically, the technical setup favors the following timeline:
2-6 AM: Precipitation moves in from south to north. It will be a mix of snow, sleet and maybe freezing rain - more in the way of snow to the north.
6 AM-6 PM: This will get tricky depending on where you are. If you're in the northern counties of the Cincinnati area and up to Dayton, you will continue to see more snow than anything else but still a mix of snow with first freezing rain and sleet, then rain. South of that, expect rain to mix in more and more the further south you go. If you're in the far southern counties, you could even go over to plain rain for a time.
6 PM Friday to 6 PM Saturday: Expect the changeover to all snow to occur in areas where it hasn't already. If you're north of Dayton you may be all snow through the entire event.
Total Accumulations:
Metro Area (or along and ~25 miles north and south of a Versailles to Hillsboro line): 4-7"
North suburbs to I-70: 5-9"
South of line from Vevay, Indiana to Augusta, Kentucky to Maysville, Kentucky: 2-5"
I will be in Dayton Friday afternoon as I mentioned at the top of this post and will tweet from the NKYWx Twitter account all day with LIVE updates from there.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Confidence Increasing - SIGNIFICANT Winter Storm On the Way!
12:00 AM 2/3/10: CVG 35 F, Wind Chill 27 F
Hello everyone,
We're monitoring closely a MAJOR snow threat on the way to the Ohio/Kentucky/Indiana tri-state area. This has every bit of potential to be a 6"+ snowstorm.
Here's the setup: Currently, we're expecting an upper level low to track across the area, passing VERY near the metro area by Saturday morning. At the same time - a surface low will track across Kentucky. An 850 millibar level low will then stall the surface low over Kentucky. Assuming this occurs, there will be an Atlantic fetch of moisture over the mountains. Conventional wisdom would have you believe that fetch never makes it over the mountains - BUT conventional wisdom was proven wrong exactly 12 years ago tomorrow with the February 4-6, 1998 storm when a high out west actually helped bring the moisture further west. I expect the same setup COULD happen here.
Another low will pop out in NC and track up the east coast. There'll be an energy transfer there which could help or hurt us. And, the models want to bring a deformation zone behind the low here. IF that were to happen, that enhances the heavy snow and whoever is in that zone gets slammed.
Either way - I am calling for anywhere for 4-8 inches across most of the area - and the big winners could be to our northwest with 10"+ out toward Indianapolis. Somebody is going to see a foot out of this. If the low comes southeast a bit - that may be us. Stay tuned.
I'll do a more technical analysis tomorrow with more details...
Hello everyone,
We're monitoring closely a MAJOR snow threat on the way to the Ohio/Kentucky/Indiana tri-state area. This has every bit of potential to be a 6"+ snowstorm.
Here's the setup: Currently, we're expecting an upper level low to track across the area, passing VERY near the metro area by Saturday morning. At the same time - a surface low will track across Kentucky. An 850 millibar level low will then stall the surface low over Kentucky. Assuming this occurs, there will be an Atlantic fetch of moisture over the mountains. Conventional wisdom would have you believe that fetch never makes it over the mountains - BUT conventional wisdom was proven wrong exactly 12 years ago tomorrow with the February 4-6, 1998 storm when a high out west actually helped bring the moisture further west. I expect the same setup COULD happen here.
Another low will pop out in NC and track up the east coast. There'll be an energy transfer there which could help or hurt us. And, the models want to bring a deformation zone behind the low here. IF that were to happen, that enhances the heavy snow and whoever is in that zone gets slammed.
Either way - I am calling for anywhere for 4-8 inches across most of the area - and the big winners could be to our northwest with 10"+ out toward Indianapolis. Somebody is going to see a foot out of this. If the low comes southeast a bit - that may be us. Stay tuned.
I'll do a more technical analysis tomorrow with more details...
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