Midnight Saturday 5/1: CVG - 67º, Mostly Cloudy
FLASH FLOOD WATCH 8 PM SATURDAY NIGHT TO 8 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE CINCINNATI AREA
This is a special midnight weather update. Updates will be sent out at 12 AM and 12 PM through Monday.
The current situation is beginning to look very dire across the Cincinnati metro area. Models are printing out staggering QPF amounts up to 6 inches for parts of our area from Saturday night through Monday morning! This WILL lead to flooding in some areas, especially those areas prone to flooding!
Meanwhile, severe weather is ALSO a growing concern. Currently, the situation does not look good. We've had an outbreak tonight across the south and midwest, and that looks like it could continue into tomorrow. That would be DISASTER for areas that were hit last week across the south.
Folks I'm not trying to falsely alarm ANYONE, but we are on the verge of perhaps repeating August 4, 2009 in some locations. If you're in locations which were flooded that day... expect to flood this weekend. PREPARE NOW. This includes Batesville and Louisville which were BOTH hard hit on that day. Get your valuables to higher ground and consider going there yourselves as well! Also, storm spotters should prepare to be activated as I would almost guarantee that activation of the SKYWARN networks will be needed!
Friday, April 30, 2010
Thursday, April 29, 2010
One More Nice Day - Then Very Wet
9:10 PM CVG - 63º, Partly Cloudy
The dry weather continued across the three state area today, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures that cracked the 72 degree mark.
Tomorrow will be a carbon copy of that for the Cincinnati area. We will see mostly sunny skies to begin, but then look for an increase in cloud cover by the end of the day and then really ramping up the clouds Friday night.
Saturday and Sunday do not look good at all. In fact the Storm Prediction Center has much of the Tri-State in a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather Saturday.
Our greater concern, however, is heavy rainfall. Current model runs indicate significant rainfall amounts across the entire area. As I tweeted earlier, IF the North American Mesoscale model were to pan out, it puts out AMAZING rainfall totals over a 72 hour period... those totals appeared to be around 5 inches OR MORE!
Do I think THAT amount will fall? No. As StormChaserNick as well as CincyWxPro point out, and I agree with both, the model appears to be suffering convective feedback - meaning it's picking up too much convective, or thunderstorm, activity for the area in the heaviest rainfall amounts. Consequently, it's way overdoing the precipitation.
HOWEVER - That leaves the question of just how much rain WILL fall. At present, I believe 1-2" of rainfall is LIKELY, with locally higher amounts.
The bottom line is, be ready. Flash flood watches have been issued by the National Weather Service offices to our south and southwest, and I do expect a watch will be needed here.
Stay with Tri-State Weather Watch for the absolute latest on the developing flood threat.
The dry weather continued across the three state area today, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures that cracked the 72 degree mark.
Tomorrow will be a carbon copy of that for the Cincinnati area. We will see mostly sunny skies to begin, but then look for an increase in cloud cover by the end of the day and then really ramping up the clouds Friday night.
Saturday and Sunday do not look good at all. In fact the Storm Prediction Center has much of the Tri-State in a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather Saturday.
Our greater concern, however, is heavy rainfall. Current model runs indicate significant rainfall amounts across the entire area. As I tweeted earlier, IF the North American Mesoscale model were to pan out, it puts out AMAZING rainfall totals over a 72 hour period... those totals appeared to be around 5 inches OR MORE!
Do I think THAT amount will fall? No. As StormChaserNick as well as CincyWxPro point out, and I agree with both, the model appears to be suffering convective feedback - meaning it's picking up too much convective, or thunderstorm, activity for the area in the heaviest rainfall amounts. Consequently, it's way overdoing the precipitation.
HOWEVER - That leaves the question of just how much rain WILL fall. At present, I believe 1-2" of rainfall is LIKELY, with locally higher amounts.
The bottom line is, be ready. Flash flood watches have been issued by the National Weather Service offices to our south and southwest, and I do expect a watch will be needed here.
Stay with Tri-State Weather Watch for the absolute latest on the developing flood threat.
Monday, April 5, 2010
TORNADO WATCH This Evening
6:45 PM CVG - 80º, Clouds Moving In
NOTE: This update will not include forecasts for cities around our area due to the existing severe weather threat in the Cincinnati area.
A TORNADO WATCH has been issued for Cincinnati and points south and west until midnight tonight. We're seeing severe thunderstorms moving from southwest to northeast and they'll impact the metro before 9pm.
At this time, the main threat appears to be golf ball size hail and winds to 60 miles per hour or greater. There is however a threat of tornadoes.
Tomorrow looks a lot better as the stronger storms will move away and we should stay sunny most of the day with a high around 82º - but I cannot rule out an instability shower or storm popping up later in the afternoon as we will be in the warm sector. If you've got outdoor plans tomorrow evening, keep that in mind.
The next chance of widespread rain happens Wednesday night through Thursday.
~J. Moses
NOTE: This update will not include forecasts for cities around our area due to the existing severe weather threat in the Cincinnati area.
A TORNADO WATCH has been issued for Cincinnati and points south and west until midnight tonight. We're seeing severe thunderstorms moving from southwest to northeast and they'll impact the metro before 9pm.
At this time, the main threat appears to be golf ball size hail and winds to 60 miles per hour or greater. There is however a threat of tornadoes.
Tomorrow looks a lot better as the stronger storms will move away and we should stay sunny most of the day with a high around 82º - but I cannot rule out an instability shower or storm popping up later in the afternoon as we will be in the warm sector. If you've got outdoor plans tomorrow evening, keep that in mind.
The next chance of widespread rain happens Wednesday night through Thursday.
~J. Moses
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Dry Today, Wet Tomorrow
11:40 AM - CVG 64º, Lunken 59º, Hamilton 64º, Wilmington 63º - Partly Cloudy skies
It was not a bad Saturday across the metro area. Some locations, such as Hamilton, reported rain, and some spots never saw a drop of water.
Today will be a great day for Easter activities with high temperatures approaching 75º.
Tonight should be okay to start but the clouds will be on the increase as lows drop near 55º.
For Monday, it's going to be kind of wet. Last night's computer models did indicate that rain wouldn't be as much of a factor for the Opening Day matchup between the Reds and the Cardinals, but I'm keeping rain in the forecast at any time during the day as highs get up near 75º again.
Tuesday looks better and warmer, as highs soar to 82º.
FORECAST FOR CITIES AROUND OUR REGION: Columbus 72º, Dayton 73º, Cleveland 69º, Toledo 70º, Indianapolis 74º, Terre Haute 76º, Louisville 78º, Lexington 77º with partly cloudy skies today.
Happy Easter everyone,
~J. Moses
It was not a bad Saturday across the metro area. Some locations, such as Hamilton, reported rain, and some spots never saw a drop of water.
Today will be a great day for Easter activities with high temperatures approaching 75º.
Tonight should be okay to start but the clouds will be on the increase as lows drop near 55º.
For Monday, it's going to be kind of wet. Last night's computer models did indicate that rain wouldn't be as much of a factor for the Opening Day matchup between the Reds and the Cardinals, but I'm keeping rain in the forecast at any time during the day as highs get up near 75º again.
Tuesday looks better and warmer, as highs soar to 82º.
FORECAST FOR CITIES AROUND OUR REGION: Columbus 72º, Dayton 73º, Cleveland 69º, Toledo 70º, Indianapolis 74º, Terre Haute 76º, Louisville 78º, Lexington 77º with partly cloudy skies today.
Happy Easter everyone,
~J. Moses
Friday, April 2, 2010
Possibly Windy, Probably Wet, DEFINITELY Warm
9:15 PM CVG: 71º Lunken: 66º Hamilton: 65º Wilmington: 66º - Partly to Mostly Cloudy Skies across our area
Temperatures have been warm, almost hot across the area. We reached 82º at the International Airport today.
Tonight, the clouds have increased a bit. We'll see that trend continue tomorrow across the entire area, after starting the day with some sunshine.
However that early sun has a price: We will see showers and some thunderstorms develop around town in the afternoon. Anytime after 1:00 PM keep an eye on the skies as rain may threaten you. It will not rain everywhere and it will not rain the entire afternoon and evening, but it will rain some places. (Note: I hope any of you in Cincinnati or surrounding suburbs will join me, along with Local 12 WKRC-TV anchor/reporter/traffic man Bob Herzog on Fountain Square downtown from 6-9 PM tomorrow night for Fountain Day. Cheap plug.)
The good news is Easter looks GREAT on Sunday, with sunny skies and highs between 70 and 75.
The news isn't so good on Monday: recent model trends have indicated that showers and storms will develop for the Tri-State in the afternoon - just in time for Opening Day of the Cincinnati Reds. We'll keep watching it, but be sure you have your rain poncho if you're going to the game or other Opening Day festivities.
After that things get a lot better on Tuesday.
FORECASTS FOR CITIES IN OUR AREA ON SATURDAY: Columbus 70º, Dayton 70º, Cleveland 65º, Toledo 67º, Indianapolis 68º, Terre Haute 70º, Louisville 72º, Lexington 74º with Scattered Showers and Storms, earlier WEST and later EAST, except Cleveland could remain rain-free until evening.
Temperatures have been warm, almost hot across the area. We reached 82º at the International Airport today.
Tonight, the clouds have increased a bit. We'll see that trend continue tomorrow across the entire area, after starting the day with some sunshine.
However that early sun has a price: We will see showers and some thunderstorms develop around town in the afternoon. Anytime after 1:00 PM keep an eye on the skies as rain may threaten you. It will not rain everywhere and it will not rain the entire afternoon and evening, but it will rain some places. (Note: I hope any of you in Cincinnati or surrounding suburbs will join me, along with Local 12 WKRC-TV anchor/reporter/traffic man Bob Herzog on Fountain Square downtown from 6-9 PM tomorrow night for Fountain Day. Cheap plug.)
The good news is Easter looks GREAT on Sunday, with sunny skies and highs between 70 and 75.
The news isn't so good on Monday: recent model trends have indicated that showers and storms will develop for the Tri-State in the afternoon - just in time for Opening Day of the Cincinnati Reds. We'll keep watching it, but be sure you have your rain poncho if you're going to the game or other Opening Day festivities.
After that things get a lot better on Tuesday.
FORECASTS FOR CITIES IN OUR AREA ON SATURDAY: Columbus 70º, Dayton 70º, Cleveland 65º, Toledo 67º, Indianapolis 68º, Terre Haute 70º, Louisville 72º, Lexington 74º with Scattered Showers and Storms, earlier WEST and later EAST, except Cleveland could remain rain-free until evening.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Warm, Almost Record Warm!
3:00AM - CVG 60 degrees, Lunken 50 degrees, Hamilton 52 degrees
Our forecast is dry for the next 48 to 60 hours with very warm weather. Highs the next two days will reach 80 degrees or hotter! Yes we are using the word hot in the forecast! We'll be approaching records and I cannot rule out breaking records either Thursday or Friday!
Saturday looks fine during the day but there is a 40% chance of a shower or storm at night.
Easter Sunday looks fine as does Opening Day on Monday with highs in the 60's.
Enjoy the end of the week,
Jeremy Moses
- Don't forget to follow NKYWx on Twitter: http://twitter.com/NKYWx
- Forecasts for cities in the Ohio/Kentucky/Indiana three state area will return Friday evening.
Our forecast is dry for the next 48 to 60 hours with very warm weather. Highs the next two days will reach 80 degrees or hotter! Yes we are using the word hot in the forecast! We'll be approaching records and I cannot rule out breaking records either Thursday or Friday!
Saturday looks fine during the day but there is a 40% chance of a shower or storm at night.
Easter Sunday looks fine as does Opening Day on Monday with highs in the 60's.
Enjoy the end of the week,
Jeremy Moses
- Don't forget to follow NKYWx on Twitter: http://twitter.com/NKYWx
- Forecasts for cities in the Ohio/Kentucky/Indiana three state area will return Friday evening.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)