As you know, we've been monitoring very closely the winter storm situation for the Cincinnati area for this weekend. I can now say with HIGH CONFIDENCE that the Tri-State will experience its first significant snowfall of the winter of 2009/2010.
The Setup: A shortwave came ashore across western Canada Thursday morning. It will drop south then shoot to the east, and it looks to come directly over the Tri-State. At the same time...a low is developing down in the Gulf of Mexico, and that is going to be moving northeast. I look for the eastern low to throw moisture back towards the western shortwave as both systems look to at least attempt to phase or come together across western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. Models have been taking the east coast storm more and more west. Folks...right now, a 50 MILE move one direction or another will make a HUGE difference between 2-4" and a whole lot more or quite a bit less. IF everything came together, by the way, the North American and Global Forecast models are painting HUGE totals from North Carolina all the way up possibly as far north as Boston! (North American in particular screamed game on for the entire Interstate 95 corridor in the northeast!) After that, another quick hit of snow looks to come Sunday night into Monday and we may get a quick inch or two out of THAT, also!
My Forecast: I held off and held off...but, I am now increasing my snow total for the entire weekend to 3-6", more to the south and east, less north and west. These model runs are getting SCARY, and if they shift any more WEST with the next two main runs (tomorrow morning and tomorrow evening)...we may have to up those even HIGHER!
Timing: Precip should begin early Saturday morning, with onset most likely between 12-4 AM Cincinnati time. It would then last throughout Saturday before tapering off on Saturday night for a short time. The second clipper comes in Sunday night after 8 PM and lasts into Monday.
We cannot emphasize this enough...this will be the 1st significant accumulation (1"+) of this winter. While we CANNOT guarantee it will stick to roads...if it DOES, it WILL cause problems! Allow yourself lots of time if you're traveling on Saturday in the Tri-State!
If you've got a flight, or any travel plans for that matter, to the east coast this weekend, especially these cities...CALL AHEAD:
Philadelphia
Washington, DC
Baltimore
NYC
Boston
Charleston, WV
Richmond, VA
Roanoke, VA
Raleigh, NC
Charlotte, NC
Winston-Salem, NC
Asheville, NC
Not all of these cities will see large snow totals, but most will see SOME wintry weather that could cancel flights, snarl roads, and just cause general havoc.
We'll update tomorrow afternoon, or sooner if the information warrants.
Friday, December 18, 2009
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
STORM WATCH: Double Shot Weekend?
Good afternoon folks... not a lot going on today or tomorrow...but there's some interesting action for this weekend!
Right now, we're tracking what looks like two separate storms for this weekend. As it stands, both the GFS and European models are indicating that two clipper systems could bring our first significant (1"+) snow of the winter. Both are suggesting that these will track near or just over Cincinnati, one on Saturday and the second on Sunday night into Monday.
Right now, it is too early to suggest specific amounts for general areas for Saturday, much less Monday, but 3 day totals at this stage suggest a 2-4 inch event.
A note: if the upper levels are right on this morning's model runs, the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, or QPF, may be underdone for this area which would suggest more than 4 inches of snow is a possibility! Stay tuned - we'll have a better handle on it tonight and more so tomorrow and Friday.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
ALERT: High Wind Warning EXPANDED, Strong Storms In the Area!
This is a special 4:30 AM update...
The HIGH WIND WARNING remains in effect from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM Thursday, and has now been expanded to cover the counties under the earlier WIND ADVISORY. The Wind Advisory has been upgraded for these counties in our area:
Ohio: Adams, Brown, Highland and Scioto
Kentucky: Lewis
The warning remains effective at 7 AM for these counties:
Ohio: Butler, Clermont, Clinton, Greene, Hamilton, Montgomery, Preble, Warren
Kentucky: Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, Mason, Owen, Pendleton, Robertson
Indiana: Dearborn, Fayette, Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland, Union, Wayne
Additionally... thunderstorms with heavy rain have moved into the area. This IS with the cold front and strong storms are possible this morning.
Regardless, the wind threat is highest after the front actually passes us - this will be a serious situation later today!
I will be in Louisville later today and will report anything I see of note via the Northern Kentucky Weather Twitter.
New E-Mail Set
UPDATE: The Tri-State Media account will no longer be used to update this blog on a regular basis.
Instead, the email address below is now the administrative account for this blog.
The original post follows...
---------------------------------
I have set a new email address specifically for this blog.
That email will be northernkentuckyweather at gmail-dot-com. (You'll be able to put it together I am sure.)
Any correspondence FOR THIS BLOG ONLY should be sent there.
Instead, the email address below is now the administrative account for this blog.
The original post follows...
---------------------------------
I have set a new email address specifically for this blog.
That email will be northernkentuckyweather at gmail-dot-com. (You'll be able to put it together I am sure.)
Any correspondence FOR THIS BLOG ONLY should be sent there.
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
BREAKING WEATHER NEWS: High Wind Warning Issued
The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a HIGH WIND WARNING and a WIND ADVISORY from 7 AM EST tomorrow to 1 AM EST Thursday. The warning has been issued for the following counties in the TSWW coverage area:
Ohio: Butler, Clermont, Clinton, Greene, Hamilton, Montgomery, Preble, Warren
Kentucky: Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, Mason, Owen, Pendleton, Robertson
Indiana: Dearborn, Fayette, Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland, Union, Wayne
The advisory is in effect for these counties:
Ohio: Adams, Brown, Highland, Scioto
Kentucky: Lewis
Winds of 25 to 40 miles per hour, with gusts anywhere from 50 to 60 miles per hour, will be possible across our area. These winds will be capable of property and tree damage, accidents, and power outages, and may be dangerous to your life, especially in the High Wind Warning area.
There will also be heavy rain at times tonight, as a warm front surges northward. Right now, everything is well on target as the front is headed north and the expected rain has begun. Rainfall will continue, and as I said above, will be heavy at times. The cold front that will bring tomorrow's winds should swing through early tomorrow. Temperatures will plummet, and I think I may actually be on target with how fast. I'm sticking with my idea of temperatures falling to the lower 30s by drive time, possibly as low as the upper 20s by 6 or 7 PM.
Remember that the winds will be gusty even as you wake up tomorrow morning - but get worse as the day progresses. If you drive a higher profile vehicle be ESPECIALLY careful in the High Wind Warning zone tomorrow!
I'll be in Louisville, Kentucky tomorrow afternoon, and will update via the NKYWx twitter at http://twitter.com/NKYWx throughout the day via my mobile phone. Keep an eye on that. This blog won't be updated as often tomorrow, as I may not have internet access at my location.
Monday, December 7, 2009
Wintry, then Rainy, then Windy, then Wintry again! Part One of a Two Part Discussion
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY LATE NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE TSWW COVERAGE AREA!
What a morning Monday morning was across the tri-state! Sheesh. As I said on Twitter sometime around 8:45 this morning...I've not seen a traffic map as red as the one I saw around that time, in a LONG time.
Well...we're not done with the wintry stuff. In fact, we'll only get about a 24-28 hour break from it.
As we go into your Tuesday afternoon, a low will scoot into southwest or central Missouri then eject into the Central Great Lakes by Wednesday. As that happens, a warm front will be moving north across Greater Cincinnati during the afternoon.
There's one thing here that could be a problem - and the National Weather Service has pinpointed it. It's a little thing called Isentropic Lift, or basically, lifting of air along a sloping surface. As that happens on Tuesday, we're going to start out with a mix of rain, sleet, and snow (more frozen the further north you go, more liquid as you go south - Central KY should be mostly rain so the bigger issue there is amount). Yours truly had a quick talk with WKRC-TV 12 meteorologist John Gumm - we're both in agreement that, by and large, daytime highs won't get out of the 30s. I'm going with 37, Mr. Gumm's thought was 39 and I think either is reasonable depending on the onset of precipitation.
The warm front comes through sometime just about rush hour Tuesday afternoon in the metro. This warm front will bring winds around to the south and southwest for Tuesday night and the first part of Wednesday, and the result is that any frozen precip that mixes in during the afternoon turns to all liquid rain Tuesday mid-evening at the latest. The result of this warm front also will be a RISE in temperatures. What's wrong with that picture? Normally, we lose the heating of the day in the nighttime hours. Because we'll be under the influence of something called Warm Air Advection, or WAA, the result is warming temperatures into the lower and perhaps even middle 40s by the early hours of Wednesday.
Now, things get interesting. As the low passes, the pressure gradient will tighten, which will cause the air to move faster between the high pressure to the southwest and the low pressure to the north. If you have an understanding of this process, you'll know this gradient is how we get wind. Well...there will be a SCREAMING low level jet stream at about 900 millibar level (or approximately 1 kilometer up in the atmosphere) of about 50 knots. Translate this down to the ground and you'll get 57.5 miles per hour - or roughly, high wind warning criteria. This level looks to be met for a short period at least on Wednesday. Meanwhile, you have the cold front coming through Wednesday morning, sometime between 4-8 AM.
Remember that Warm Air Advection I spoke of? Well, here comes the exact opposite, Cold Air Advection, and with a big time vengeance. Temperatures, remember, will begin Wednesday in the middle 40s for many spots especially south. That cold air comes in on winds that will be switching to the northwest and HOWLING between 40 and 45 miles per hour with gusts to 55 or 60. The temperature, then must respond and does so in dramatic fashion, PLUMMETING through the 30s, and (MAYBE) clear into the 20s by nightfall around 6-7 PM! There goes the bottom... and what happens to any moisture left over? Snow flurries at LEAST, possibly snow showers on Wednesday afternoon as we drop the temperature.
This post has already gotten too long, so part two will come later this evening. I may have an adjustment or two, but I think this looks good right now.
What a morning Monday morning was across the tri-state! Sheesh. As I said on Twitter sometime around 8:45 this morning...I've not seen a traffic map as red as the one I saw around that time, in a LONG time.
Well...we're not done with the wintry stuff. In fact, we'll only get about a 24-28 hour break from it.
As we go into your Tuesday afternoon, a low will scoot into southwest or central Missouri then eject into the Central Great Lakes by Wednesday. As that happens, a warm front will be moving north across Greater Cincinnati during the afternoon.
There's one thing here that could be a problem - and the National Weather Service has pinpointed it. It's a little thing called Isentropic Lift, or basically, lifting of air along a sloping surface. As that happens on Tuesday, we're going to start out with a mix of rain, sleet, and snow (more frozen the further north you go, more liquid as you go south - Central KY should be mostly rain so the bigger issue there is amount). Yours truly had a quick talk with WKRC-TV 12 meteorologist John Gumm - we're both in agreement that, by and large, daytime highs won't get out of the 30s. I'm going with 37, Mr. Gumm's thought was 39 and I think either is reasonable depending on the onset of precipitation.
The warm front comes through sometime just about rush hour Tuesday afternoon in the metro. This warm front will bring winds around to the south and southwest for Tuesday night and the first part of Wednesday, and the result is that any frozen precip that mixes in during the afternoon turns to all liquid rain Tuesday mid-evening at the latest. The result of this warm front also will be a RISE in temperatures. What's wrong with that picture? Normally, we lose the heating of the day in the nighttime hours. Because we'll be under the influence of something called Warm Air Advection, or WAA, the result is warming temperatures into the lower and perhaps even middle 40s by the early hours of Wednesday.
Now, things get interesting. As the low passes, the pressure gradient will tighten, which will cause the air to move faster between the high pressure to the southwest and the low pressure to the north. If you have an understanding of this process, you'll know this gradient is how we get wind. Well...there will be a SCREAMING low level jet stream at about 900 millibar level (or approximately 1 kilometer up in the atmosphere) of about 50 knots. Translate this down to the ground and you'll get 57.5 miles per hour - or roughly, high wind warning criteria. This level looks to be met for a short period at least on Wednesday. Meanwhile, you have the cold front coming through Wednesday morning, sometime between 4-8 AM.
Remember that Warm Air Advection I spoke of? Well, here comes the exact opposite, Cold Air Advection, and with a big time vengeance. Temperatures, remember, will begin Wednesday in the middle 40s for many spots especially south. That cold air comes in on winds that will be switching to the northwest and HOWLING between 40 and 45 miles per hour with gusts to 55 or 60. The temperature, then must respond and does so in dramatic fashion, PLUMMETING through the 30s, and (MAYBE) clear into the 20s by nightfall around 6-7 PM! There goes the bottom... and what happens to any moisture left over? Snow flurries at LEAST, possibly snow showers on Wednesday afternoon as we drop the temperature.
This post has already gotten too long, so part two will come later this evening. I may have an adjustment or two, but I think this looks good right now.
ALERT: SNOW MOVING IN!
Snowfall is moving into the Greater Cincinnati tri-state area now.
At 3:53 AM, Bloomington, Indiana was first in our immediate coverage area to report snow falling. Before then, Evansville, Vincennes, and Terre Haute, Indiana all had reported light snow this morning.
Through 10 or 11 this morning, we'll see snow falling across our area. Prepare for slippery roads this morning, give drivers ahead of you PLENTY of extra room, and SLOW DOWN.
Twitter Feed Not Working
QUICK CHANGE: For the time being, until the Twitter Gadget quits eating its own face, we've replaced it with the RSS feed you'll see at right.
It may not be updating frequently - but if it does update, you should see it.
The official Twitter feed for this blog is not displaying correctly. Blogger seems to be eating its face with regards to the Twitter gadget at the present time.
For updates from this space's primary author, please go to http://twitter.com/NKYWx until further notice. Which will probably be when the Twitter gadget works.
Sunday, December 6, 2009
WINTER WEATHER ALERT: Snow Possible Tomorrow Morning, Ice on Tuesday Night???
Here we go, folks - we're only in the first 10 days of meteorological winter, and already, some concerns.
First, tonight. A disturbance out to the west will swing through tonight and the first half of tomorrow. I look for precipitation to begin overnight, possibly as early as 4-5 AM. This will start out as wintry (snow), transition to a rain/snow mix, and maybe end as all rain if the atmosphere warms enough.
Our highs today only made the 35 degree mark. We WILL drop into the 20s tonight (in fact the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport is at 30 and so at the next observation should be around 28-29 degrees), so there's not much doubt we'll start as snow, I don't expect to fall much further than that so expect it to be around 26 when you wake up in the morning.
By 9 AM I look for us to be around 32, and at that point warm air should work into the middle levels of the atmosphere, so rain should start mixing in then. If we warm all layers enough, we may end as all rain by noontime. I do not, however, think we will make 40 degrees - with the precipitation around early, we should stay around 36 for a high.
Then, focus turns to another, larger storm on Tuesday and Wednesday. At this time...I expect this to come in around 5 or 6 PM. Precip type also is a concern with this one. I do not see the area being much above freezing - and quick evaporational cooling COULD send us plummeting below freezing - which would mean an icy mess on Tuesday evening. Freezing rain and sleet could be a problem, so keep that in mind when planning for activities on Tuesday night. Either way, warm air surges north overnight Tuesday night and that should change us over to all rain which would continue through the first half of Wednesday. At that point, the cold front comes south early Wednesday afternoon. Once that happens, temperatures plummet again Wednesday night, changing anything that's left BACK to wintry precipitation this time in the form of snow, and a quick 1 inch is possible.
There's another threat of wintry precipitation at the end of the week - but we'll not worry much about that until we get to Wednesday night and Thursday. Suffice to say right now, that looks like it's all snow.
More tomorrow...
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