7:30 AM CVG: 70°, Partly Cloudy
Yet more flooding developed yesterday across the area:
-- Butler County reported water over parts of Cincinnati-Brookville Road; flooding in Ross, Morgan and parts of Hanover Townships; a water rescue in the 2600 block of Ross-Millville Road
-- Colerain Township in Hamilton County: Flooding along part of Blanchetta Street; flooding near Royal Glen Apartment Complex; several evacuations
-- Independence area, Kenton County: Flash flooding in the areas flooded Wednesday
-- Clermont County: A few homes flooded in New Richmond; Flooding near Felicity
-- Brown County: Bullskin Creek flooded again, causing Dunbar Road to close at the same spot where two boys were swept to their deaths. (Both bodies, sadly, have now been recovered: Justin Devercelly's body was found last night at Meldahl Dam.)
-- Dearborn County: Flooding was reported near St. Leon.
Today, the Tri-State could see still more rain it doesn't need on wet soil that can't hold anything else. Up to 1.5" of rain MAY fall today. Just this week, Cincinnati's airport has received almost 4" of rain! That's just since Wednesday morning! Some locations have received more than that - another 1.5" of rain would push a few locales to as much as 5" for the weekend! We're going to be watching carefully all afternoon. The National Weather Service may need to yet AGAIN issue a Flash Flood Watch later today.
Stay with twitter.com/NKYWx for the latest.
Sunday, June 13, 2010
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Tragic News on That Brown County Search for Two
There is sad news to report on the search for two Brown County, Ohio boys.
One boy's body was found this morning around 11:00 AM, about 1.5 miles from the command post set up for the search. It's where the boys are thought to have entered the water.
Here's the story from Cincinnati CBS affiliate WKRC-TV 12.
One boy's body was found this morning around 11:00 AM, about 1.5 miles from the command post set up for the search. It's where the boys are thought to have entered the water.
Here's the story from Cincinnati CBS affiliate WKRC-TV 12.
A body found this morning near Smith's Landing in Brown County has been identified as 8 year-old Blake Devercelly.
Rescue crews recovered his body around 11:00 am in their search for two missing brothers along a rain swollen Bullskin Creek.
They were last seen heading down to check out the rising water in Brown County's Lewis Township Wednesday afternoon.
We're told the boys, 8 year-old Blake Devercelly and 11 year-old Justin Devercelly, went out to watch the creek rising, and that is the last time they were seen.
After resuming the search this morning, one body was found around 11:00 am about 1 1/2 miles from where the children disappeared.
The search continues for Justin.
Rescue workers searched by land and air for six hours Wednesday evening, but could not locate the boys.
The boys vanished near the creek along Dunbar Road. That's the south west portion of the county very near the Clermont County line. The boys are from Felicity, and were at their babysitter's house when they went to watch the rising creek.
Local 12 is at the search area and will closely monitor any new information on the rescue effort.
Flood Threat Update
6:00 PM: CVG 83°, Partly Cloudy, Heat Index 82°
Today was a VERY nice, sunny Thursday, after the rough Wednesday we had. (See the previous post for more details.)
Tonight expect clear skies and temperatures dropping into the lower 60s. It will be a great night for grilling out or any other activities you have planned.
For Friday, I expect clouds to increase and cannot rule out a few showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon. If we can destabilize the atmosphere enough then I cannot rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm or two. Our highs will reach the upper 80s and near 90 degrees.
The bigger, and more complex, problem comes Saturday. A vorticity maximum (in layman's terms, a disturbance in the atmosphere) will swing across the area. This could kick off more showers and storms; this is where the best threat for ANY severe thunderstorms across the Tri-State will be. Precipitable Water values of 1.75" to 2" are forecast by most of the computer forecast models - and that would result in flooding issues given what we saw yesterday, so keep that in mind if you live near a creek or stream, or in an area that flooded yesterday.
After that, it now looks as though we'll keep the threat of some showers or storms around into Monday, as we've seen that continuity I've been looking for in the computers - therefore we'll keep that chance around through Monday and then dry things out Tuesday except for the southern part of the forecast area.
-- Jeremy Moses
Today was a VERY nice, sunny Thursday, after the rough Wednesday we had. (See the previous post for more details.)
Tonight expect clear skies and temperatures dropping into the lower 60s. It will be a great night for grilling out or any other activities you have planned.
For Friday, I expect clouds to increase and cannot rule out a few showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon. If we can destabilize the atmosphere enough then I cannot rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm or two. Our highs will reach the upper 80s and near 90 degrees.
The bigger, and more complex, problem comes Saturday. A vorticity maximum (in layman's terms, a disturbance in the atmosphere) will swing across the area. This could kick off more showers and storms; this is where the best threat for ANY severe thunderstorms across the Tri-State will be. Precipitable Water values of 1.75" to 2" are forecast by most of the computer forecast models - and that would result in flooding issues given what we saw yesterday, so keep that in mind if you live near a creek or stream, or in an area that flooded yesterday.
After that, it now looks as though we'll keep the threat of some showers or storms around into Monday, as we've seen that continuity I've been looking for in the computers - therefore we'll keep that chance around through Monday and then dry things out Tuesday except for the southern part of the forecast area.
-- Jeremy Moses
Dry Today, More Humid Tomorrow, More Flash Flooding Ahead?
5:00 AM CVG: 64°, Fair
It was a WILD ride across northern Kentucky Wednesday afternoon. Here's a few reports received:
-- Flooding closed the left lane, both directions on I-75/71 at US 42 in Florence.
-- Flooding closed a portion of Zig Zag Road, just off Kentucky State Route 18, between Florence and Burlington and a water rescue occurred in that same area when Limaburg Creek rose out of its banks.
-- High water blocked portions of Turkeyfoot, Bristow, and Stevenson roads in Kenton County. Banklick Creek came out of its banks in Independence, KY.
-- Two boys were reportedly swept away and are feared drowned in Brown County when Bullskin Creek flooded Wednesday afternoon.
All of this, from 2 to four inches of rain in a four hour time span across areas from Western Ripley County, Indiana, across Dearborn County, through extreme northern Kentucky, into southern Clermont County and ultimately into Central Brown County.
Now, we watch the waters slowly recede...and now our attention turns to the very next storm to the west.
Until it arrives, expect warm weather. Highs today will be around 84° and lows tonight in the lower to middle 60s.
Friday, we'll already begin to see the effects of that next storm, as a warm front lifts northbound across our area Friday afternoon. Then, Saturday a disturbance will move very slowly across the Tri-State. The direct result of both the warm front on Friday, and the disturbance on Saturday points to showers and thunderstorms becoming likely especially Saturday. Due to the already saturated ground across the areas where yesterday's rain fell... I expect that flash flooding is a distinct possibility on Saturday. You'll need to stay with Tri-State Weather Watch here on Twitter at NKYWx for the latest. Our highs on Friday will approach the 90 degree mark! It'll be HOT and HUMID...so take it easy out there.
Either way, right now it looks like things clear out Sunday and we should be okay through Tuesday of next week...although yesterday's 0z European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model, or ECMWF, did want to keep things wet in that time frame. I'm not buying it and apparently neither is NWS Wilmington, so I'll keep things dry through that time period. If I see indications this weekend that things will change, I'll put rain in the forecast but right now, I see nothing past Saturday to worry about.
Jeremy Moses
It was a WILD ride across northern Kentucky Wednesday afternoon. Here's a few reports received:
-- Flooding closed the left lane, both directions on I-75/71 at US 42 in Florence.
-- Flooding closed a portion of Zig Zag Road, just off Kentucky State Route 18, between Florence and Burlington and a water rescue occurred in that same area when Limaburg Creek rose out of its banks.
-- High water blocked portions of Turkeyfoot, Bristow, and Stevenson roads in Kenton County. Banklick Creek came out of its banks in Independence, KY.
-- Two boys were reportedly swept away and are feared drowned in Brown County when Bullskin Creek flooded Wednesday afternoon.
All of this, from 2 to four inches of rain in a four hour time span across areas from Western Ripley County, Indiana, across Dearborn County, through extreme northern Kentucky, into southern Clermont County and ultimately into Central Brown County.
Now, we watch the waters slowly recede...and now our attention turns to the very next storm to the west.
Until it arrives, expect warm weather. Highs today will be around 84° and lows tonight in the lower to middle 60s.
Friday, we'll already begin to see the effects of that next storm, as a warm front lifts northbound across our area Friday afternoon. Then, Saturday a disturbance will move very slowly across the Tri-State. The direct result of both the warm front on Friday, and the disturbance on Saturday points to showers and thunderstorms becoming likely especially Saturday. Due to the already saturated ground across the areas where yesterday's rain fell... I expect that flash flooding is a distinct possibility on Saturday. You'll need to stay with Tri-State Weather Watch here on Twitter at NKYWx for the latest. Our highs on Friday will approach the 90 degree mark! It'll be HOT and HUMID...so take it easy out there.
Either way, right now it looks like things clear out Sunday and we should be okay through Tuesday of next week...although yesterday's 0z European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model, or ECMWF, did want to keep things wet in that time frame. I'm not buying it and apparently neither is NWS Wilmington, so I'll keep things dry through that time period. If I see indications this weekend that things will change, I'll put rain in the forecast but right now, I see nothing past Saturday to worry about.
Jeremy Moses
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
ALERT: Flooding Issues Across NKY
4:40 PM: CVG 71°, Light Rain, Thunder, Fog
Flooding problems are scattered across much of Northern Kentucky right now. I-75 at US 42 had the left lanes blocked both ways as of 4:30 PM...Kentucky Highway 18 was CLOSED at Zig Zag Road between Florence and Burlington due to high water...and Turkeyfoot Road was partially blocked due to high water in Kenton County.
For the next couple of hours expect heavy rain to move across southern Campbell and Clermont...central Brown...and north-central Adams Counties. This rain could drop an inch an hour, and cause flooding of low-lying areas. STAY ALERT AND STAY AWAY FROM FLOODWATERS.
Jeremy Moses
Flooding problems are scattered across much of Northern Kentucky right now. I-75 at US 42 had the left lanes blocked both ways as of 4:30 PM...Kentucky Highway 18 was CLOSED at Zig Zag Road between Florence and Burlington due to high water...and Turkeyfoot Road was partially blocked due to high water in Kenton County.
For the next couple of hours expect heavy rain to move across southern Campbell and Clermont...central Brown...and north-central Adams Counties. This rain could drop an inch an hour, and cause flooding of low-lying areas. STAY ALERT AND STAY AWAY FROM FLOODWATERS.
Jeremy Moses
Friday, May 21, 2010
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT This Afternoon
UPDATE 12:45 PM: The new outlook just came out from SPC, and now the ENTIRE tri-state is in the slight risk area.
Thunderstorms continue to develop and move across the area. We had some sunshine around 9:00 AM, which may have helped to destabilize the atmosphere above Cincinnati.
The result is that the Storm Prediction Center has placed areas from the metro WEST in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, and a Mesoscale Discussion just issued at the top of the hour says a weather watch may be needed for parts of the area. IF severe thunderstorms do pop up, damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats.
Stay with Twitter.com/NKYWx for the latest information all afternoon.
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Still More Storms On the Way
5:30 AM CVG: 56°, Fair
LICKING RIVER UPDATE
Falmouth: Estimated Crest at 33' this morning and will begin to fall off, getting back below the flood stage of 28' tonight
McKinneysburg: Crest was 38.3' yesterday - will begin to fall off today and back below 33' flood stage this evening
We're expecting sunshine this morning across the Cincinnati and Dayton areas, much like yesterday. However things could change drastically anytime after 3 PM and you should be alert.
Storms will pop this afternoon in the warm, moist and slightly unstable airmass over our area, and due to favorable conditions in the atmosphere over our area, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has placed areas NORTH of downtown in a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather. The primary threats appear to be damaging winds and some hail. Again - best threat is anytime after 3 PM this afternoon. If storms hold off late enough moving into the metro area, I can't rule out that the eastern forecast area sees just general rain as opposed to severe thunderstorms...but right now, I'm including EVERYONE in a threat for severe weather today. Highs of 85° seem to be the best bet today with the strong May sunshine.
After that, Thursday should be fine before a stronger front moves through Friday, and AGAIN the front will bring a risk of severe storms. It's still too early to predict specifics, but right now damaging winds and large hail, along with isolated tornadoes, are possible.
Follow me on Twitter at Twitter.com/NKYWx for the latest information on any storms that should develop this afternoon.
~Tri-State Weather Watch Meteorologist Jeremy Moses
LICKING RIVER UPDATE
Falmouth: Estimated Crest at 33' this morning and will begin to fall off, getting back below the flood stage of 28' tonight
McKinneysburg: Crest was 38.3' yesterday - will begin to fall off today and back below 33' flood stage this evening
We're expecting sunshine this morning across the Cincinnati and Dayton areas, much like yesterday. However things could change drastically anytime after 3 PM and you should be alert.
Storms will pop this afternoon in the warm, moist and slightly unstable airmass over our area, and due to favorable conditions in the atmosphere over our area, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has placed areas NORTH of downtown in a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather. The primary threats appear to be damaging winds and some hail. Again - best threat is anytime after 3 PM this afternoon. If storms hold off late enough moving into the metro area, I can't rule out that the eastern forecast area sees just general rain as opposed to severe thunderstorms...but right now, I'm including EVERYONE in a threat for severe weather today. Highs of 85° seem to be the best bet today with the strong May sunshine.
After that, Thursday should be fine before a stronger front moves through Friday, and AGAIN the front will bring a risk of severe storms. It's still too early to predict specifics, but right now damaging winds and large hail, along with isolated tornadoes, are possible.
Follow me on Twitter at Twitter.com/NKYWx for the latest information on any storms that should develop this afternoon.
~Tri-State Weather Watch Meteorologist Jeremy Moses
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