5:00 AM CVG: 64°, Fair
It was a WILD ride across northern Kentucky Wednesday afternoon. Here's a few reports received:
-- Flooding closed the left lane, both directions on I-75/71 at US 42 in Florence.
-- Flooding closed a portion of Zig Zag Road, just off Kentucky State Route 18, between Florence and Burlington and a water rescue occurred in that same area when Limaburg Creek rose out of its banks.
-- High water blocked portions of Turkeyfoot, Bristow, and Stevenson roads in Kenton County. Banklick Creek came out of its banks in Independence, KY.
-- Two boys were reportedly swept away and are feared drowned in Brown County when Bullskin Creek flooded Wednesday afternoon.
All of this, from 2 to four inches of rain in a four hour time span across areas from Western Ripley County, Indiana, across Dearborn County, through extreme northern Kentucky, into southern Clermont County and ultimately into Central Brown County.
Now, we watch the waters slowly recede...and now our attention turns to the very next storm to the west.
Until it arrives, expect warm weather. Highs today will be around 84° and lows tonight in the lower to middle 60s.
Friday, we'll already begin to see the effects of that next storm, as a warm front lifts northbound across our area Friday afternoon. Then, Saturday a disturbance will move very slowly across the Tri-State. The direct result of both the warm front on Friday, and the disturbance on Saturday points to showers and thunderstorms becoming likely especially Saturday. Due to the already saturated ground across the areas where yesterday's rain fell... I expect that flash flooding is a distinct possibility on Saturday. You'll need to stay with Tri-State Weather Watch here on Twitter at NKYWx for the latest. Our highs on Friday will approach the 90 degree mark! It'll be HOT and HUMID...so take it easy out there.
Either way, right now it looks like things clear out Sunday and we should be okay through Tuesday of next week...although yesterday's 0z European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model, or ECMWF, did want to keep things wet in that time frame. I'm not buying it and apparently neither is NWS Wilmington, so I'll keep things dry through that time period. If I see indications this weekend that things will change, I'll put rain in the forecast but right now, I see nothing past Saturday to worry about.
Jeremy Moses
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
ALERT: Flooding Issues Across NKY
4:40 PM: CVG 71°, Light Rain, Thunder, Fog
Flooding problems are scattered across much of Northern Kentucky right now. I-75 at US 42 had the left lanes blocked both ways as of 4:30 PM...Kentucky Highway 18 was CLOSED at Zig Zag Road between Florence and Burlington due to high water...and Turkeyfoot Road was partially blocked due to high water in Kenton County.
For the next couple of hours expect heavy rain to move across southern Campbell and Clermont...central Brown...and north-central Adams Counties. This rain could drop an inch an hour, and cause flooding of low-lying areas. STAY ALERT AND STAY AWAY FROM FLOODWATERS.
Jeremy Moses
Flooding problems are scattered across much of Northern Kentucky right now. I-75 at US 42 had the left lanes blocked both ways as of 4:30 PM...Kentucky Highway 18 was CLOSED at Zig Zag Road between Florence and Burlington due to high water...and Turkeyfoot Road was partially blocked due to high water in Kenton County.
For the next couple of hours expect heavy rain to move across southern Campbell and Clermont...central Brown...and north-central Adams Counties. This rain could drop an inch an hour, and cause flooding of low-lying areas. STAY ALERT AND STAY AWAY FROM FLOODWATERS.
Jeremy Moses
Friday, May 21, 2010
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT This Afternoon
UPDATE 12:45 PM: The new outlook just came out from SPC, and now the ENTIRE tri-state is in the slight risk area.
Thunderstorms continue to develop and move across the area. We had some sunshine around 9:00 AM, which may have helped to destabilize the atmosphere above Cincinnati.
The result is that the Storm Prediction Center has placed areas from the metro WEST in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, and a Mesoscale Discussion just issued at the top of the hour says a weather watch may be needed for parts of the area. IF severe thunderstorms do pop up, damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats.
Stay with Twitter.com/NKYWx for the latest information all afternoon.
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Still More Storms On the Way
5:30 AM CVG: 56°, Fair
LICKING RIVER UPDATE
Falmouth: Estimated Crest at 33' this morning and will begin to fall off, getting back below the flood stage of 28' tonight
McKinneysburg: Crest was 38.3' yesterday - will begin to fall off today and back below 33' flood stage this evening
We're expecting sunshine this morning across the Cincinnati and Dayton areas, much like yesterday. However things could change drastically anytime after 3 PM and you should be alert.
Storms will pop this afternoon in the warm, moist and slightly unstable airmass over our area, and due to favorable conditions in the atmosphere over our area, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has placed areas NORTH of downtown in a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather. The primary threats appear to be damaging winds and some hail. Again - best threat is anytime after 3 PM this afternoon. If storms hold off late enough moving into the metro area, I can't rule out that the eastern forecast area sees just general rain as opposed to severe thunderstorms...but right now, I'm including EVERYONE in a threat for severe weather today. Highs of 85° seem to be the best bet today with the strong May sunshine.
After that, Thursday should be fine before a stronger front moves through Friday, and AGAIN the front will bring a risk of severe storms. It's still too early to predict specifics, but right now damaging winds and large hail, along with isolated tornadoes, are possible.
Follow me on Twitter at Twitter.com/NKYWx for the latest information on any storms that should develop this afternoon.
~Tri-State Weather Watch Meteorologist Jeremy Moses
LICKING RIVER UPDATE
Falmouth: Estimated Crest at 33' this morning and will begin to fall off, getting back below the flood stage of 28' tonight
McKinneysburg: Crest was 38.3' yesterday - will begin to fall off today and back below 33' flood stage this evening
We're expecting sunshine this morning across the Cincinnati and Dayton areas, much like yesterday. However things could change drastically anytime after 3 PM and you should be alert.
Storms will pop this afternoon in the warm, moist and slightly unstable airmass over our area, and due to favorable conditions in the atmosphere over our area, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has placed areas NORTH of downtown in a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather. The primary threats appear to be damaging winds and some hail. Again - best threat is anytime after 3 PM this afternoon. If storms hold off late enough moving into the metro area, I can't rule out that the eastern forecast area sees just general rain as opposed to severe thunderstorms...but right now, I'm including EVERYONE in a threat for severe weather today. Highs of 85° seem to be the best bet today with the strong May sunshine.
After that, Thursday should be fine before a stronger front moves through Friday, and AGAIN the front will bring a risk of severe storms. It's still too early to predict specifics, but right now damaging winds and large hail, along with isolated tornadoes, are possible.
Follow me on Twitter at Twitter.com/NKYWx for the latest information on any storms that should develop this afternoon.
~Tri-State Weather Watch Meteorologist Jeremy Moses
Friday, April 30, 2010
Heavy Rain, Severe Weather Becoming LIKELY
Midnight Saturday 5/1: CVG - 67º, Mostly Cloudy
FLASH FLOOD WATCH 8 PM SATURDAY NIGHT TO 8 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE CINCINNATI AREA
This is a special midnight weather update. Updates will be sent out at 12 AM and 12 PM through Monday.
The current situation is beginning to look very dire across the Cincinnati metro area. Models are printing out staggering QPF amounts up to 6 inches for parts of our area from Saturday night through Monday morning! This WILL lead to flooding in some areas, especially those areas prone to flooding!
Meanwhile, severe weather is ALSO a growing concern. Currently, the situation does not look good. We've had an outbreak tonight across the south and midwest, and that looks like it could continue into tomorrow. That would be DISASTER for areas that were hit last week across the south.
Folks I'm not trying to falsely alarm ANYONE, but we are on the verge of perhaps repeating August 4, 2009 in some locations. If you're in locations which were flooded that day... expect to flood this weekend. PREPARE NOW. This includes Batesville and Louisville which were BOTH hard hit on that day. Get your valuables to higher ground and consider going there yourselves as well! Also, storm spotters should prepare to be activated as I would almost guarantee that activation of the SKYWARN networks will be needed!
FLASH FLOOD WATCH 8 PM SATURDAY NIGHT TO 8 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE CINCINNATI AREA
This is a special midnight weather update. Updates will be sent out at 12 AM and 12 PM through Monday.
The current situation is beginning to look very dire across the Cincinnati metro area. Models are printing out staggering QPF amounts up to 6 inches for parts of our area from Saturday night through Monday morning! This WILL lead to flooding in some areas, especially those areas prone to flooding!
Meanwhile, severe weather is ALSO a growing concern. Currently, the situation does not look good. We've had an outbreak tonight across the south and midwest, and that looks like it could continue into tomorrow. That would be DISASTER for areas that were hit last week across the south.
Folks I'm not trying to falsely alarm ANYONE, but we are on the verge of perhaps repeating August 4, 2009 in some locations. If you're in locations which were flooded that day... expect to flood this weekend. PREPARE NOW. This includes Batesville and Louisville which were BOTH hard hit on that day. Get your valuables to higher ground and consider going there yourselves as well! Also, storm spotters should prepare to be activated as I would almost guarantee that activation of the SKYWARN networks will be needed!
Thursday, April 29, 2010
One More Nice Day - Then Very Wet
9:10 PM CVG - 63º, Partly Cloudy
The dry weather continued across the three state area today, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures that cracked the 72 degree mark.
Tomorrow will be a carbon copy of that for the Cincinnati area. We will see mostly sunny skies to begin, but then look for an increase in cloud cover by the end of the day and then really ramping up the clouds Friday night.
Saturday and Sunday do not look good at all. In fact the Storm Prediction Center has much of the Tri-State in a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather Saturday.
Our greater concern, however, is heavy rainfall. Current model runs indicate significant rainfall amounts across the entire area. As I tweeted earlier, IF the North American Mesoscale model were to pan out, it puts out AMAZING rainfall totals over a 72 hour period... those totals appeared to be around 5 inches OR MORE!
Do I think THAT amount will fall? No. As StormChaserNick as well as CincyWxPro point out, and I agree with both, the model appears to be suffering convective feedback - meaning it's picking up too much convective, or thunderstorm, activity for the area in the heaviest rainfall amounts. Consequently, it's way overdoing the precipitation.
HOWEVER - That leaves the question of just how much rain WILL fall. At present, I believe 1-2" of rainfall is LIKELY, with locally higher amounts.
The bottom line is, be ready. Flash flood watches have been issued by the National Weather Service offices to our south and southwest, and I do expect a watch will be needed here.
Stay with Tri-State Weather Watch for the absolute latest on the developing flood threat.
The dry weather continued across the three state area today, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures that cracked the 72 degree mark.
Tomorrow will be a carbon copy of that for the Cincinnati area. We will see mostly sunny skies to begin, but then look for an increase in cloud cover by the end of the day and then really ramping up the clouds Friday night.
Saturday and Sunday do not look good at all. In fact the Storm Prediction Center has much of the Tri-State in a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather Saturday.
Our greater concern, however, is heavy rainfall. Current model runs indicate significant rainfall amounts across the entire area. As I tweeted earlier, IF the North American Mesoscale model were to pan out, it puts out AMAZING rainfall totals over a 72 hour period... those totals appeared to be around 5 inches OR MORE!
Do I think THAT amount will fall? No. As StormChaserNick as well as CincyWxPro point out, and I agree with both, the model appears to be suffering convective feedback - meaning it's picking up too much convective, or thunderstorm, activity for the area in the heaviest rainfall amounts. Consequently, it's way overdoing the precipitation.
HOWEVER - That leaves the question of just how much rain WILL fall. At present, I believe 1-2" of rainfall is LIKELY, with locally higher amounts.
The bottom line is, be ready. Flash flood watches have been issued by the National Weather Service offices to our south and southwest, and I do expect a watch will be needed here.
Stay with Tri-State Weather Watch for the absolute latest on the developing flood threat.
Monday, April 5, 2010
TORNADO WATCH This Evening
6:45 PM CVG - 80º, Clouds Moving In
NOTE: This update will not include forecasts for cities around our area due to the existing severe weather threat in the Cincinnati area.
A TORNADO WATCH has been issued for Cincinnati and points south and west until midnight tonight. We're seeing severe thunderstorms moving from southwest to northeast and they'll impact the metro before 9pm.
At this time, the main threat appears to be golf ball size hail and winds to 60 miles per hour or greater. There is however a threat of tornadoes.
Tomorrow looks a lot better as the stronger storms will move away and we should stay sunny most of the day with a high around 82º - but I cannot rule out an instability shower or storm popping up later in the afternoon as we will be in the warm sector. If you've got outdoor plans tomorrow evening, keep that in mind.
The next chance of widespread rain happens Wednesday night through Thursday.
~J. Moses
NOTE: This update will not include forecasts for cities around our area due to the existing severe weather threat in the Cincinnati area.
A TORNADO WATCH has been issued for Cincinnati and points south and west until midnight tonight. We're seeing severe thunderstorms moving from southwest to northeast and they'll impact the metro before 9pm.
At this time, the main threat appears to be golf ball size hail and winds to 60 miles per hour or greater. There is however a threat of tornadoes.
Tomorrow looks a lot better as the stronger storms will move away and we should stay sunny most of the day with a high around 82º - but I cannot rule out an instability shower or storm popping up later in the afternoon as we will be in the warm sector. If you've got outdoor plans tomorrow evening, keep that in mind.
The next chance of widespread rain happens Wednesday night through Thursday.
~J. Moses
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