WINTER STORM UPDATE: Snow Continues; Blowing/Drifting Occurring!

2:10 AM CVG 10° F, LIGHT SNOW, WINDS WEST @ 14 MPH G 21 MPH WIND CHILL -6°

WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ALL AREAS

The weather continues to be nasty across our area at this hour (2 AM). Snow is moving across the Tri-State area and will continue all morning.

I anticipate that 1-3" of snow will have fallen in addition to the 4-6" that fell yesterday across the area. Storm total accumulations between 5-9 inches are LIKELY with more further north and less south.

Winds will also cause blowing and drifting snow especially in open areas and along north/south roadways which will cause roads to become VERY hazardous.

Many school districts across Northern Kentucky (INCLUDING Boone, Kenton and Campbell County Schools) have already decided to close for a second straight day, as have most in Southeast Indiana. Find those lists on the website of your favorite local radio or television station.

Stay tuned for the latest.

Jeremy Moses

ALERT: WINTER STORM WATCH Tonight-Wednesday Afternoon, Upgrade LIKELY This Afternoon

A Winter Storm WATCH is in effect from 12 midnight tonight to 6 PM Wednesday for most of the NWS Wilmington, Ohio forecast area (excluding the far southeastern counties) and WILL BE UPGRADED later this afternoon...Winter Storm WARNINGS issued by Louisville, Indianapolis and Jackson, KY NWS offices as of 12:50 PM...

12:50 PM: CVG - 22 F (as of noon observation), Mostly Cloudy

Another significant winter storm...the second in the last 5 days...will impact the Ohio Valley tonight through Wednesday. A surface low down south will track from Louisiana up through Central Ohio by Tuesday afternoon. An upper low will track through the OV as well, moving across the Tri-State Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

Models have been trending colder for the Cincinnati and Dayton areas and higher on snow amounts also. The 12Z guidance that just came in indicates a solid 6"+ of snowfall across the Cincinnati metro, and another 8"+ storm for Dayton. In fact at a 10 to 1 snow to liquid ratio the Global Forecast System model wants to put down 7" of snowfall at Cincinnati.

Consequently, here is what I expect total-wise:

North and Northwest of Cincinnati, including Dayton: 8-12", highest near and NORTH of Interstate 70
Cincinnati proper, including areas along and 30 mi N/S of line from Columbus, IN through Hillsboro, OH: 6-8". Could be minor mixing.
South and Southeast: 4-6", mixing is probably confined to areas far south and east.

WINTER STORM WARNING: Significant Snow On The Way!

10 PM: CVG 35 F, Overcast

WINTER STORM WARNING ALL AREAS 4 AM TOMORROW TO 6 PM SATURDAY

I'm keeping this short - as I'm preparing to head to Dayton, Ohio tomorrow.

Forecast is still on track as previously talked about. Low pressure currently near New Orleans will move up the east coast. At the same time we will see an inverted trough move through and a secondary low develops in the Tennessee Valley. Moisture will be thrown into this storm from both the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic at the same time. An upper level low will track directly over us, which will enhance things on Friday night especially.

Basically, the technical setup favors the following timeline:

2-6 AM: Precipitation moves in from south to north. It will be a mix of snow, sleet and maybe freezing rain - more in the way of snow to the north.
6 AM-6 PM: This will get tricky depending on where you are. If you're in the northern counties of the Cincinnati area and up to Dayton, you will continue to see more snow than anything else but still a mix of snow with first freezing rain and sleet, then rain. South of that, expect rain to mix in more and more the further south you go. If you're in the far southern counties, you could even go over to plain rain for a time.
6 PM Friday to 6 PM Saturday: Expect the changeover to all snow to occur in areas where it hasn't already. If you're north of Dayton you may be all snow through the entire event.

Total Accumulations:
Metro Area (or along and ~25 miles north and south of a Versailles to Hillsboro line): 4-7"
North suburbs to I-70: 5-9"
South of line from Vevay, Indiana to Augusta, Kentucky to Maysville, Kentucky: 2-5"

I will be in Dayton Friday afternoon as I mentioned at the top of this post and will tweet from the NKYWx Twitter account all day with LIVE updates from there.

Confidence Increasing - SIGNIFICANT Winter Storm On the Way!

12:00 AM 2/3/10: CVG 35 F, Wind Chill 27 F

Hello everyone,

We're monitoring closely a MAJOR snow threat on the way to the Ohio/Kentucky/Indiana tri-state area. This has every bit of potential to be a 6"+ snowstorm.

Here's the setup: Currently, we're expecting an upper level low to track across the area, passing VERY near the metro area by Saturday morning. At the same time - a surface low will track across Kentucky. An 850 millibar level low will then stall the surface low over Kentucky. Assuming this occurs, there will be an Atlantic fetch of moisture over the mountains. Conventional wisdom would have you believe that fetch never makes it over the mountains - BUT conventional wisdom was proven wrong exactly 12 years ago tomorrow with the February 4-6, 1998 storm when a high out west actually helped bring the moisture further west. I expect the same setup COULD happen here.

Another low will pop out in NC and track up the east coast. There'll be an energy transfer there which could help or hurt us. And, the models want to bring a deformation zone behind the low here. IF that were to happen, that enhances the heavy snow and whoever is in that zone gets slammed.

Either way - I am calling for anywhere for 4-8 inches across most of the area - and the big winners could be to our northwest with 10"+ out toward Indianapolis. Somebody is going to see a foot out of this. If the low comes southeast a bit - that may be us. Stay tuned.

I'll do a more technical analysis tomorrow with more details...

Snow Threat All But Gone for Friday; Slick Morning Drive Today

5 AM Official Observation: CVG 34 F, Wind Chill 25 F

FLOOD ADVISORY Remains In Effect for the Ohio River

At Cincinnati: Crest Sat. AM at 50.9' - Flood Stage 52'

Maysville: Crest Fri Afternoon 48.9' - FS 50'

Meldahl Dam: Crest Fri Evening 48.4' - FS 51'

Portsmouth: Crest Tomorrow Morning 48' - FS 50'

The snow threat for tomorrow is basically gone even for the southern counties of the forecast area... even if snow should fall it will be an inch or less.

Meanwhile, this morning's snow has moved east but a cold front is racing east also and is expected to reach areas along I-71 by 8 or 9 AM this morning then be east of Portsmouth by 10 to 11 AM. Temperatures will fall as a result from the current 34 degrees down to the lower 20s by the end of the day... watch out for slick roads later today.

This weekend, we'll see temps colder than average, with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens or even upper single digits.

~Jeremy Moses

Snow Threat Diminished, Still Possible on Friday

FLOOD ADVISORY ON THE OHIO RIVER

Crest at Cincinnati around 51.5 Ft. Saturday morning, Flood Stage is 52 Ft.

Crest at Maysville just below the 50 Ft. Flood Stage

Expect minor flooding along the river from the East End to near Portsmouth

9:35 AM - CVG 22 F, Wind Chill 14 F

There will be some sunshine this morning but the breaks in the clouds will fill in towards the afternoon and we'll reach the lower to middle 30s.

Tonight we expect snow to move through, it will not be a big deal accumulation-wise however there could be some slick spots in the early half of the morning drive tomorrow.

As it looks right now, the storm we're still tracking for Friday looks to slide south of the area, as such if it produces accumulation right now it'll be along and south of a Carrollton to Portsmouth line. We'll monitor it closely, as any shift north in the track will bring at the very least 1-2" accumulations to the metro - and enough of a shift could bring 5-9" or more to the area.

WEATHER CONCERN: Significant Winter Storm Late Week in Southern KY, MAYBE Here?

There's concern developing about a possible winter storm in the second half of this week. We knew the pattern had to reload before we plunged back into the deep freeze... we knew it would mean a big storm somewhere... and now we look to be near, maybe even IN, the crosshairs here across the Tri-State.

Currently, the models are forecasting a storm to come down from the northwest on Wednesday. This one will set the stage for the more significant storm from Thursday into the weekend. It could drop a quick 1-2" Wednesday night into early Thursday.

The BIG problem will come out of the southwest. A rather deep wave is being progged to move across the south on Thursday and Friday. The Global Forecast System model has been a little faster, and the European a bit slower. If you caught my tweets earlier today at the NKYWx Twitter page you know that the Euro showed temps at 5,000 feet below freezing and .52" of precip over the period from Friday morning to Sunday morning. At a ten inches snow to 1 inch liquid ratio, that's 5.2" of snow. Am I saying we're going to get 5.2" of snow? NO... but that's the raw output. HOWEVER... with cold air in place following Wednesday's cold front... the precipitation should be mostly or all snow... which should mean accumulations are possible. Our friend Derek Beasley, chief meteorologist for WPMI 15 out of Mobile, Alabama, says some models showed a foot possible across Kentucky south of Interstate 64! 1 foot of snow, for the uninitiated, could shut down Lexington or Louisville for at least a day - one only has to look back to March 2008 for the most recent 10"+ storm in Louisville itself. And we all know what that March '08 storm did here.

Again: We're NOT officially calling for a foot plus anywhere. But there's a real threat that SOMEBODY is going to get a foot and maybe more.

SHORT TERM: Sorry - we forgot to talk briefly about what's happening here in the next 36 hours. You can expect snow to move across the area tonight. Most locations will receive 1" or less - but that 1" will be tough to measure as it'll get blown around a bit. Beyond that, there could be more scattered activity tomorrow, and then tomorrow night it shuts off briefly before the aforementioned cold front Wednesday night.