4:40 PM: CVG 20 F Wind Chill of 14 F; Lunken 24 F Wind Chill 16 F
This is a brief post with some updated information and the forecast.
The National Weather Service has issued, as of 4 PM, a Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM tomorrow to 6 AM Friday. The Wilmington office of the NWS expects 3-5 inches of snow through that time period. They are basically using 24 hour criteria as the advisory is in effect for 24 hours.
However... I believe the snow will be heavier than is forecast by ILN, consequently I am going with total accumulations of 4-7" with isolated amounts of 8 inches.
Another thing ILN isn't putting in their advisory, and which I will add here, is that with the snow being dry and fluffy (20 to 1 average ratio looks good), there WILL be blowing and drifting snow in favored, open areas on Thursday evening.
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
A Brief Update: School Closings Galore, Still Tracking Thursday Threat
6:47 AM: CVG: 14 F, Wind Chill 0 F; Lunken: 16 F, WC 5 F; Hamilton 15 F, WC 5 F; Middletown 18 F, WC 6 F. Light Snow All Locations except Middletown
First: We do have LOTS of school closings and delays today. Check your favorite media outlet - there are WAY too many to list here!
Second: Light snow will continue this morning for much of the area. An additional 1" is possible.
Third: We continue tracking a significant accumulating snow for the day on Thursday. The latest models are painting between 4 and 7 inches of snowfall. We'll have a first call map this afternoon detailing what we expect for the area. Winter Storm Watches will likely be hoisted later today...
First: We do have LOTS of school closings and delays today. Check your favorite media outlet - there are WAY too many to list here!
Second: Light snow will continue this morning for much of the area. An additional 1" is possible.
Third: We continue tracking a significant accumulating snow for the day on Thursday. The latest models are painting between 4 and 7 inches of snowfall. We'll have a first call map this afternoon detailing what we expect for the area. Winter Storm Watches will likely be hoisted later today...
Monday, January 4, 2010
An Update For Thursday's Snow Event
We're backtracking a tiny bit... but snow is still LIKELY on Thursday.
The 0z runs last night... well, it didn't look good. They were drier and things were just not looking good.
But...the 12Z's came back, and are higher. The Canadian and European both indicate a surface low over Eastern Kentucky. The Canadian actually gives us possibly 6 inches or more. The Global does not, and as for the North American...it's still outside the NAM's range.
Because of the uncertainty, I'm going with an EARLY CALL of at LEAST 2-4" - with maybe more. We're not in the GFS' "Butter Zone" yet, indeed we're not even close - GFS doesn't usually lock in until within 48 hours. We will know more by around 2 PM tomorrow as to what it looks like. Again, the European and Canadian both show the surface low in E KY. The GFS does not... it's that surface low that would bring us significant snow.
The 0z runs last night... well, it didn't look good. They were drier and things were just not looking good.
But...the 12Z's came back, and are higher. The Canadian and European both indicate a surface low over Eastern Kentucky. The Canadian actually gives us possibly 6 inches or more. The Global does not, and as for the North American...it's still outside the NAM's range.
Because of the uncertainty, I'm going with an EARLY CALL of at LEAST 2-4" - with maybe more. We're not in the GFS' "Butter Zone" yet, indeed we're not even close - GFS doesn't usually lock in until within 48 hours. We will know more by around 2 PM tomorrow as to what it looks like. Again, the European and Canadian both show the surface low in E KY. The GFS does not... it's that surface low that would bring us significant snow.
Sunday, January 3, 2010
Updating the Snow Threats
We're still monitoring the threat for snowfall for tomorrow and Tuesday, and the bigger threat on Thursday into Friday.
First, the Monday/Tuesday threat...which looks like it's dried out a little bit. The 12Z NAM still has .1" of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, but it's not exactly clear on the placement with a sharp cut off and could be off a bit. GFS was basically the same but with even a bigger cutoff. In either case, I'm sticking with a 1-2" call with (possibly) isolated areas of 3", highest amounts to be north/east of metropolitan Cincinnati.
The last global model run (12Z GFS) showed the Thursday storm was drier, but it still looked to produce some decent snowfall. The 18Z seems to say (as Lester Rhoads would call it) "suppression city" and I do not buy that. With 20:1 or even 25:1 snowfall ratios, the GFS gives us between 2" (low end) and around 6 and a quarter inches (high end). Again, that's with 20-25:1 ratios. Bearing this in mind and the fact that the 18Z is far from reliable (uses 12Z's upper air data, not new data), I'm sticking with a moderate accumulation of snowfall for the Thursday-Friday event. Again that's at least 4" and possibly more.
Stay tuned for updates...
First, the Monday/Tuesday threat...which looks like it's dried out a little bit. The 12Z NAM still has .1" of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, but it's not exactly clear on the placement with a sharp cut off and could be off a bit. GFS was basically the same but with even a bigger cutoff. In either case, I'm sticking with a 1-2" call with (possibly) isolated areas of 3", highest amounts to be north/east of metropolitan Cincinnati.
The last global model run (12Z GFS) showed the Thursday storm was drier, but it still looked to produce some decent snowfall. The 18Z seems to say (as Lester Rhoads would call it) "suppression city" and I do not buy that. With 20:1 or even 25:1 snowfall ratios, the GFS gives us between 2" (low end) and around 6 and a quarter inches (high end). Again, that's with 20-25:1 ratios. Bearing this in mind and the fact that the 18Z is far from reliable (uses 12Z's upper air data, not new data), I'm sticking with a moderate accumulation of snowfall for the Thursday-Friday event. Again that's at least 4" and possibly more.
Stay tuned for updates...
Saturday, January 2, 2010
Concern Growing - 1-3" Possible Mon/Tues; Then Late Week Storm???
We've got two snow concerns this week... and the first is impending in the next 48-72 hours.
The 0Z Global Forecast model indicated several waves of low pressure moving across the area Monday and Tuesday. These waves may result in 1-3" of snow from Monday into Tuesday. The North American Model did not want to paint in that much, but itself indicates 1-2" of snowfall in the same timeframe.
Currently, I'm siding with the NAM, and going with 1-2" of snowfall. HOWEVER... if any of these waves is enhanced enough then some locales could see 3 to as much as 4" of snow. This will need to be monitored VERY closely... local meteorologists have missed this so far.
The next threat is on Thursday-Saturday. The GFS says a storm will dig to our south and then ride northeast. A couple of runs ago, it was saying, as Lester Rhoads sometimes calls it, that the storm was "suppression city". I don't buy into a "suppression city" solution. I don't think the high to the north would be handled well by the models, I think the models are underestimating QPF, and I think the cold will relax a bit ahead of the storm.
(UPDATE: The 0Z GFS has this storm suppressed again. Looks like the low tries to form near New Orleans and track out along the coast. I hesitate to buy this solution, but I will for now because it looks good for how far out we are. Per Trevor Cole, it looks to track NOLA > Freeport, FL > Nahunta, GA > Beaufort, VA then up the east coast. Again, for the time being, I will BUY this solution.)
Because of this, I can say with at least a bit of confidence that there will be a storm around the Thursday-Saturday timeframe. How much is up in the air...but we COULD see as much as 4" and, if the moist air gets involved from the Gulf of Mexico, POSSIBLY as much as 6-10 inches. This has time to be watched...but we can say there will most likely be SOMETHING in that Thursday to Saturday time period.
The 0Z Global Forecast model indicated several waves of low pressure moving across the area Monday and Tuesday. These waves may result in 1-3" of snow from Monday into Tuesday. The North American Model did not want to paint in that much, but itself indicates 1-2" of snowfall in the same timeframe.
Currently, I'm siding with the NAM, and going with 1-2" of snowfall. HOWEVER... if any of these waves is enhanced enough then some locales could see 3 to as much as 4" of snow. This will need to be monitored VERY closely... local meteorologists have missed this so far.
The next threat is on Thursday-Saturday. The GFS says a storm will dig to our south and then ride northeast. A couple of runs ago, it was saying, as Lester Rhoads sometimes calls it, that the storm was "suppression city". I don't buy into a "suppression city" solution. I don't think the high to the north would be handled well by the models, I think the models are underestimating QPF, and I think the cold will relax a bit ahead of the storm.
(UPDATE: The 0Z GFS has this storm suppressed again. Looks like the low tries to form near New Orleans and track out along the coast. I hesitate to buy this solution, but I will for now because it looks good for how far out we are. Per Trevor Cole, it looks to track NOLA > Freeport, FL > Nahunta, GA > Beaufort, VA then up the east coast. Again, for the time being, I will BUY this solution.)
Because of this, I can say with at least a bit of confidence that there will be a storm around the Thursday-Saturday timeframe. How much is up in the air...but we COULD see as much as 4" and, if the moist air gets involved from the Gulf of Mexico, POSSIBLY as much as 6-10 inches. This has time to be watched...but we can say there will most likely be SOMETHING in that Thursday to Saturday time period.
Friday, December 18, 2009
WINTER WEATHER ALERT: Snow Friday Night/Saturday, Again Sunday Night/Monday
As you know, we've been monitoring very closely the winter storm situation for the Cincinnati area for this weekend. I can now say with HIGH CONFIDENCE that the Tri-State will experience its first significant snowfall of the winter of 2009/2010.
The Setup: A shortwave came ashore across western Canada Thursday morning. It will drop south then shoot to the east, and it looks to come directly over the Tri-State. At the same time...a low is developing down in the Gulf of Mexico, and that is going to be moving northeast. I look for the eastern low to throw moisture back towards the western shortwave as both systems look to at least attempt to phase or come together across western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. Models have been taking the east coast storm more and more west. Folks...right now, a 50 MILE move one direction or another will make a HUGE difference between 2-4" and a whole lot more or quite a bit less. IF everything came together, by the way, the North American and Global Forecast models are painting HUGE totals from North Carolina all the way up possibly as far north as Boston! (North American in particular screamed game on for the entire Interstate 95 corridor in the northeast!) After that, another quick hit of snow looks to come Sunday night into Monday and we may get a quick inch or two out of THAT, also!
My Forecast: I held off and held off...but, I am now increasing my snow total for the entire weekend to 3-6", more to the south and east, less north and west. These model runs are getting SCARY, and if they shift any more WEST with the next two main runs (tomorrow morning and tomorrow evening)...we may have to up those even HIGHER!
Timing: Precip should begin early Saturday morning, with onset most likely between 12-4 AM Cincinnati time. It would then last throughout Saturday before tapering off on Saturday night for a short time. The second clipper comes in Sunday night after 8 PM and lasts into Monday.
We cannot emphasize this enough...this will be the 1st significant accumulation (1"+) of this winter. While we CANNOT guarantee it will stick to roads...if it DOES, it WILL cause problems! Allow yourself lots of time if you're traveling on Saturday in the Tri-State!
If you've got a flight, or any travel plans for that matter, to the east coast this weekend, especially these cities...CALL AHEAD:
Philadelphia
Washington, DC
Baltimore
NYC
Boston
Charleston, WV
Richmond, VA
Roanoke, VA
Raleigh, NC
Charlotte, NC
Winston-Salem, NC
Asheville, NC
Not all of these cities will see large snow totals, but most will see SOME wintry weather that could cancel flights, snarl roads, and just cause general havoc.
We'll update tomorrow afternoon, or sooner if the information warrants.
The Setup: A shortwave came ashore across western Canada Thursday morning. It will drop south then shoot to the east, and it looks to come directly over the Tri-State. At the same time...a low is developing down in the Gulf of Mexico, and that is going to be moving northeast. I look for the eastern low to throw moisture back towards the western shortwave as both systems look to at least attempt to phase or come together across western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. Models have been taking the east coast storm more and more west. Folks...right now, a 50 MILE move one direction or another will make a HUGE difference between 2-4" and a whole lot more or quite a bit less. IF everything came together, by the way, the North American and Global Forecast models are painting HUGE totals from North Carolina all the way up possibly as far north as Boston! (North American in particular screamed game on for the entire Interstate 95 corridor in the northeast!) After that, another quick hit of snow looks to come Sunday night into Monday and we may get a quick inch or two out of THAT, also!
My Forecast: I held off and held off...but, I am now increasing my snow total for the entire weekend to 3-6", more to the south and east, less north and west. These model runs are getting SCARY, and if they shift any more WEST with the next two main runs (tomorrow morning and tomorrow evening)...we may have to up those even HIGHER!
Timing: Precip should begin early Saturday morning, with onset most likely between 12-4 AM Cincinnati time. It would then last throughout Saturday before tapering off on Saturday night for a short time. The second clipper comes in Sunday night after 8 PM and lasts into Monday.
We cannot emphasize this enough...this will be the 1st significant accumulation (1"+) of this winter. While we CANNOT guarantee it will stick to roads...if it DOES, it WILL cause problems! Allow yourself lots of time if you're traveling on Saturday in the Tri-State!
If you've got a flight, or any travel plans for that matter, to the east coast this weekend, especially these cities...CALL AHEAD:
Philadelphia
Washington, DC
Baltimore
NYC
Boston
Charleston, WV
Richmond, VA
Roanoke, VA
Raleigh, NC
Charlotte, NC
Winston-Salem, NC
Asheville, NC
Not all of these cities will see large snow totals, but most will see SOME wintry weather that could cancel flights, snarl roads, and just cause general havoc.
We'll update tomorrow afternoon, or sooner if the information warrants.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
STORM WATCH: Double Shot Weekend?
Good afternoon folks... not a lot going on today or tomorrow...but there's some interesting action for this weekend!
Right now, we're tracking what looks like two separate storms for this weekend. As it stands, both the GFS and European models are indicating that two clipper systems could bring our first significant (1"+) snow of the winter. Both are suggesting that these will track near or just over Cincinnati, one on Saturday and the second on Sunday night into Monday.
Right now, it is too early to suggest specific amounts for general areas for Saturday, much less Monday, but 3 day totals at this stage suggest a 2-4 inch event.
A note: if the upper levels are right on this morning's model runs, the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, or QPF, may be underdone for this area which would suggest more than 4 inches of snow is a possibility! Stay tuned - we'll have a better handle on it tonight and more so tomorrow and Friday.
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