Snow on the way!!!

NOTE: This is a preliminary posting. Graphics to come around 4:30-5:00 PM today if possible.

This is crazy, but we are expecting snow tomorrow night and into Sunday!

The setup: An upper level disturbance crossing the west coast today will move into the Midwest tonight and tomorrow and through the Ohio Valley Saturday night and Sunday. This includes a piece of energy at 500 millibars known as a vort max, or vorticity maximum. That vort max provides the needed lift for precipitation.

The Storm Timeline: Snow will begin west to east during the evening hours of Saturday. Snow will be heaviest in the early hours of Sunday, then taper off west to east as the vort max passes Sunday.

Accumulation: Generally, we are looking at 1-3" of snowfall. One model was MUCH more aggressive and was painting 3 to as much as SIX inches! I don't buy that and am not going with it as of now. However, I do reserve the right to change my mind.

Impact: The bigger impact from the storm is likely Sunday morning. Expect slick roads, as the snow could come down heavy enough to cause a few issues.

Much more on this later including model maps to illustrate my points, but I did want to get the promised posting out there.

12Z Runs = GAME ON??

Well, this won't be as detailed as Monday night...mainly due to the fact that most every model has locked in to something close.

But, I want to detail somewhat what the models are showing, as far as our winter storm.

GFS: It's got the low EAST of the Appalachian Mountains. The 0c 850 line (remember from Monday that this is the freezing line at 5000 feet) is mostly along or SOUTH of the Ohio River. This indicates that at least the NW 2/3 of our area could see more snow than anything.

NAM: It's not quite in range. Low isn't so well defined, either.

UKMET (or United Kingdom Meteorological Office Model): It's too east. Low would track to near Baltimore and I just don't buy it. The Southeast Ridge is flat, but not THAT flat.

ECMWF: Garbage. Too far northwest for the pattern that is expected to be in place, which favors a track near or east of Cincinnati. Not buying it. It would be rain to very minor snow accumulation.

GGEM: Right over Cincinnati. Not favorable for heavy snow for Cincy proper, but it means a few inches on the back side.

JMA (Japanese Meteorological Agency): Haven't analyzed this in detail, but low over roughly, say, Paducah or maybe as far east as Evansville at 96 hours then one near Wilmington, DE at 120. Don't think it's the same low, possibly a coastal transfer and I'm not sure I buy it that far east. It'd give us rain to snow, several inches on back end. 500 thicknesses above 540 at 96 hours, crashing to 520-ish by 120 hours. HOWEVER, it could end up being a great setup - since the maps are in 24 hour increments, with a track over southern KY it could end up being a really good setup for somebody if not in the metro then just northwest of it.

BOTTOM LINE: It's still several days away. I want to see decent agreement before I make any calls as to snowfall amounts and/or icing potential (though the latter is becoming LESS likely). I expect everything to be fairly set in stone by Friday morning - at which point I can fine tune things and make a first call.

For now, however, the key points to know:

-- The storm currently looks to start as a mix or possibly plain rain, then switch over to snow late Saturday night or Sunday.
-- Winds will be a BIG problem...any location that gets heavy snow, WATCH OUT for potential blizzard conditions (which are NOT necessarily dependent on snow amounts).
-- Expect temperatures to CRASH, FAST Sunday. Could be in the lower 20s by evening and crashing to the single digits Monday morning!
-- SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE - It is too early to say where or how much - Monitor this space or the NKYWx Twitter page for information!

Developing Situation: Potential MONSTER Snow This Weekend.

NOTE: All GFS images are obtained from the NCEP website at http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/.

I did say I wouldn't squawk about this until Wednesday - but I can't ignore the 0z GFS...

That model indicates a SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM for Cincinnati come this weekend.

Here's the model at 126 hours (Click to enlarge...this will be the case for all of the images to follow, too):



It depicts a low over Memphis, TN, measuring 996 millibars. Note the blue 0 line. That's the freezing level at about 5000 feet above earth. It's NORTH of us. Not precisely conducive to snow for Cincinnati, right? In fact this model indicates rain at this time.

At 132 hours:



Note that the low has tracked to Nashville, TN, but is still 996 millibars. The 0 line is just outside Cincinnati to the south. Remember, that line being south favors snow.

At 138 hours:



BULLSEYE. Notice the heaviest precipitation is DIRECTLY over Cincinnati. That would be 5-7.5" of snow in the previous 6 hours (from hour 132 to hour 138). The low has moved to roughly Bluefield, WV and has deepened to 992 millibars. Take note of the isobars (lines of equal pressure, which are labeled 992, 996, 1000, etc. on the map). Notice how tightly spaced they are...almost like a can of sardines, right? That indicates that winds will be strong out of the north. That 0 line is no problem - it's WAY south.

144 hours:



WOW. Look at the low, which in this image is now centered over southern PA. It's down to 984 millibars! That's strong...dropping 8 millibars over 6 hours. That, combined with the previous pressure drop from 996-992 means this storm is on its way to possible BOMBOGENESIS. The tri-state could still be seeing some light snow, up to an additional inch would accumulate.

I have to stop right here and answer a question likely on the mind of the reader. What is Bombogenesis? That is what happens when a storm experiences a rapid pressure drop of 24 millibars OR MORE in a 24 hour period. We went from 996 millibars to 984 millibars from 132 hours to 144 hours...so we're halfway there.

Just for kicks, let's look at 150 hours:



The low is now near Albany, NY...at 976 MILLIBARS! That's another 8 millibar pressure drop in six hours. Cincinnati is now out of any precipitation...but it's COLD.

And 156, just to see if we achieved a true meteorological "bomb":



Nope. We just missed it by 4 millibars. It's still 976 millibars, and has moved to the ME/Quebec border region. But...note that 0 line. WAYYYY down into FLORIDA. At this point, if any precipitation fell in, say, Jacksonville, or Atlanta...it'd be SNOW.

Now, a caution: We're still 5 days from the event. This is going to change. But right now...just know that a potential exists for SIGNIFICANT snowfall on Sunday that could impact your plans over the weekend, including any events you may plan to attend.

Dangerous Day Today Across Greater Cincinnati

4:30 AM - CVG: 65°, Overcast

HIGH WIND WARNING 10 AM TO 8 PM TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA

Expect today to be a VERY DANGEROUS day across the Tri-State Area.

A HIGH WIND WARNING was issued just before 4 AM for the NWS Wilmington forecast area. The NWS says winds could gust upwards of 60 mph today, with damage likely.

As if that were not enough, we are also under a HIGH RISK (west) and MODERATE RISK (east) of severe thunderstorms today. The Storm Prediction Center says that a line of storms, currently to the west of St. Louis, will rake through the area around early afternoon. The line, and any storms that precede it, will be capable of any of the following:

-- Damaging winds, potentially upwards of 70 mph

-- Strong, potentially long-lived tornadoes

-- Hail upwards of 1" in diameter

Any storms should sweep east rapidly, and be gone by mid-evening. This front will usher in drier, cooler air - highs will not surpass 70 degrees after one final gasp tomorrow, at least for the next week, and possibly longer.

Because of the fluid situation, please follow me on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/NKYWx for the very latest updates all day long, including any damage reports I receive.

Also, if you have pictures of damage in your area, you may either tweet them to me, or send them to the email address to the right of this blog post.

~Jeremy Moses

HIGH FIRE DANGER Sunday

3:45 AM CVG 53°, Fair Skies

Good Sunday Morning,

A heightened fire danger exists for Sunday across the Tri-State area, as low relative humidity, combined with the current Severe Drought we're experiencing and highs that could approach a record of 89 degrees create dangerous fire conditions. (Interesting fact: Yesterday at 3 PM, the relative humidity was at 13...yes THIRTEEN percent - dewpoints were in the middle 30's with temperatures around 86°! Comfortable, yes - but dangerous for fires.) Remember, a few weeks ago several fires started in Indiana and Kentucky and at times got out of control...luckily, they didn't do major damage.

That fire danger may persist for parts of Kentucky on Monday, particularly near and SOUTH of Interstate 64. For Cincinnati, a cooler air mass begins to settle in, and humidities should increase as well. Unfortunately, this cooler air mass won't have much in the way of precipitation with it, in fact little to none. Also unfortunately, we don't see massive changes for at least the next week...I wish I had better news on that front but it doesn't look like there's any change, anytime soon.

One More Sunny, Hot Day - Then Stormy Thursday Night

5:55 AM CVG - 65°, Clear Skies

The heat that we've become accustomed to this summer (or so it seems) is back again today for one last stand. We'll hit a high of 88° under sunny skies.

Tonight will feature a chance of showers or storms sometime starting around 3:00 AM, with lows back down to around the 65° mark.

Things could get a bit hairy tomorrow. The computer models don't indicate a lot of instability, perhaps owing to the fact that we'll have rain around off and on much of the day. HOWEVER... the wind fields indicate 850 millibar (or 5000 foot AGL) level winds of around 64 mph, and 0-6 km shear around the same levels. The result would be severe thunderstorms, conditional on how unstable things get in the atmosphere and how warm we get, with winds being the primary threat.

Whether we get severe storms, we still may see wind gusts to 35 mph outside of any storms. This will be enough to inconvenience you if you're out walking so keep that in mind. (We'll update this situation tomorrow morning, especially if anything changes.) It should NOT, as it appears now, be enough to need a Wind Advisory, much less a High Wind Watch/Warning, but we'll keep our eyes on it. (The windstorm of 2008, which is just 2 years ago yesterday [9/14], should have taught meteorologists across the area to prepare for ANYTHING.) Only one model (the North American Mesoscale) has anything stronger right now.

After that, look for a MUCH better weekend. Even as a front develops to our north, high pressure to our south should keep it and its effects up there, and away from the Cincinnati Tri-State area.

Don't forget to follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/NKYWx

~Jeremy Moses

One More Night of Heat - Storms Later

3:20 AM CVG: 82°, HEAT INDEX 87°

You're not mis-reading that above observation. At 3 AM Eastern Time Cincinnati is still above 80 degrees. Last night, if you recall, I said it didn't get below 80 until nearly 1 in the morning.

We'll probably stay near 80, or above, until sometime around 5-7 AM (the exception: If you get under a brief shower, you might just cool off a few degrees and drop below that 80 degree mark). Showers and storms will move in from the west and northwest. These are in association with what is really more of a "wind shift line" than a "cold front". Yes, the temperatures will drop behind this - but only for maybe a day. The main effect is that winds will go from the southwest to the northeast. Even that won't last as winds will quickly back around to the southeast again by Monday night into Tuesday.

Keep an eye on these storms today - they will have the potential of producing heavy rainfall and, if they are delayed for very long OR we get a break in activity, possibly being severe with damaging winds being the biggest threat. We'll have our eyes on the situation throughout the day.

~Jeremy Moses
@NKYWx on Twitter.com

PS: There may be some confusion as to why an Excessive Heat Warning was issued by the Weather Service for Cincinnati and Dayton proper - but only Heat Advisories for the other counties of the warning area.

Here's the explanation. Wilmington's policy is as follows for Excessive Heat Warnings versus Heat Advisories:

Heat Advisory:

All Zones: When the heat index values range between 100-104 degrees.

Excessive Heat Warning:

Outside the cities of Cincinnati and Dayton: Anytime the heat index reaches past 105 degrees.

In Cincinnati and Dayton, specifically for Hamilton and Montgomery Counties: Either the above OR if heat index values of 100-104 persist for a second consecutive day or more.

As yesterday was the second day of 100-104 degree heat index values in Cincinnati and Dayton themselves, that triggered local Excessive Heat Warning criteria. Due to the criteria being more strict outside those two cities, a warning wasn't called. However I do have reports that a few areas *MAY* have breached those criteria a time or two.

HEAT INDEX VALUES DANGEROUS AGAIN SATURDAY

4:35 AM CVG: 78°, Fair at 4 AM EDT

As you can see, the heat has become extremely oppressive across the area. We did not even drop out of the 80s until sometime close to 1 AM EDT!

This, combined with expected heat index values from 100-104° and temperatures close to 96°, has resulted in the National Weather Service issuing these advisories and warnings:

All Counties Outside Cities of Cincinnati and Dayton: HEAT ADVISORY 12 NOON TO 8 PM TODAY

Hamilton and Montgomery Counties: EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING 12 NOON TO 8 PM TODAY

In the City of Cincinnati a HEAT EMERGENCY exists for today.

Tonight look for temperatures to drop only into the middle 70s, much like Friday night.

On Sunday, a front will move towards the Tri-State and you can look for showers and thunderstorms to dominate your Sunday. Currently the Storm Prediction Center has us in a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms. Stay tuned for more on that possibility.

After that, we will be only about ten degrees cooler but we will be less humid as well and that should help some for a couple days, even if we rise into the upper 80s we'll still only be in the upper 60s or lower 70s. (It's not a good thing when you're saying "ONLY" upper 60s or lower 70s.)

~Jeremy Moses

@NKYWx on Twitter

FLOODING PROBLEMS THIS EVENING

5:30 PM CVG 70°, T-Storm and Fog

FLASH FLOOD WARNING NORTHERN CAMPBELL AND KENTON COUNTIES UNTIL 5:45 PM

HEAT EMERGENCY CITY OF CINCINNATI WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY

Flash flooding has occurred across parts of Covington and Newport this afternoon. Cars have been submerged, roads closed, and basements flooded.

We remind you: PLEASE DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS!!! The water may be too deep to cross safely.

Flood problems could continue into the evening...but the good news is the rain has gotten a kick to the east and should end by about 9 PM everywhere.

What Happened

The reason for the flooding this afternoon is that a meso-low pressure system developed just east of downtown.

If you have monitored our Twitter account during severe weather you may sometimes read where I say a "mesocyclone" developed somewhere and you need to be taking cover.

Well, this is similar. However it wasn't a tight enough circulation that severe weather was imminent. It was large enough that the rain could rotate around it, and it did so...with the pivot point just east of Covington and Newport, somewhere in southwest Clermont and/or southeast Hamilton counties.

The result was what we call a "train" of heavy rain that more or less didn't move much until another trough of low pressure could kick the meso-low east - which happened shortly after 4:30 PM, which resulted in the flooding across Covington, Newport and Fort Thomas.

~Jeremy Moses

UPDATED 11:25 AM: Rain In the Area Now, Will Remain Rest of the Day

11:15 AM CVG 74º, Rain, Fog

UPDATE BELOW FOR HEAT EMERGENCY, FLOOD ADVISORY INFORMATION

Rain moved into the southwestern part of the area this morning and has spread northeast across the entire area.

We can expect rain, heavy at times, to impact the tri-state through the day, but NO SEVERE WEATHER is anticipated as of right now. However...flood problems could occur as a direct result of so much rain and in fact a FLOOD ADVISORY is in effect for Pike and Scioto Counties east of the Cincinnati metro until 12:45 PM. UPDATE 11:25 AM: A NEW FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ADAMS, BROWN AND HIGHLAND COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST OHIO UNTIL 3:15 PM EDT.

Rain will diminish in coverage tonight. Tomorrow looks HOT and a heat advisory could be issued by the National Weather Service office in Wilmington this afternoon.

UPDATE 11:25 AM: A HEAT EMERGENCY has been issued by the City of Cincinnati for Wednesday through Friday as heat index values will easily exceed 95 degrees and may exceed 100 degrees.

NOTE: There are 5000 people without power in parts of Hamilton County right now. Please remember to treat intersections where the stoplights are out as a FOUR WAY STOP until further notice, and check on your neighbors who may have serious medical conditions that require the use of electricity to power any devices. It's unclear when power will be restored.

~Jeremy Moses

Not So Warm, But Could Be Wet

9:30 AM CVG: 73°, Cloudy

It was a very wet morning here in the Tri-State, and there was a Flash Flood Warning for Butler and Warren counties and points north before 8 AM.

We're drying out for now, however more storms could pop up at anytime this afternoon. The biggest threat from these storms will be heavy rain. However, one or two isolated severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

More storms may pop tomorrow and Wednesday.

~Jeremy Moses

HOT, HOT, HOT

SMOG ALERT EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY - BOONE, BUTLER, CAMPBELL, CLERMONT, HAMILTON, KENTON, WARREN COUNTIES
HEAT EMERGENCY THROUGH FRIDAY - CITY OF CINCINNATI

4:00 PM CVG - 89°, Sunny to Partly Cloudy - many spots across the area at or above 90°

The heat is on, yet again, across the tri-state area. The city of Cincinnati has a Heat Emergency due to the extreme heat, and 25 cooling centers are open Monday through Friday.

We're looking at more of the same through Friday, so be sure you stay inside and out of the heat, especially if you're among those most sensitive to hot temperatures. Heat index values could approach 103° tomorrow and Thursday.

The next chance of rain is Thursday night and Friday, as a cold front finally will sweep in and take the worst of the heat and humidity east and out of the area.

Stay cool!

~Jeremy Moses

Deja vu, Again...But Add Some Storms

HEAT EMERGENCY REMAINS IN EFFECT in the City of Cincinnati Through This Evening
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE

9:25 AM CVG 81° Mostly Sunny; Lunken 78° Fair; Hamilton 79° Fair; Wilmington 75° Fair

Today it looks pretty much like more of the same as yesterday. The HEAT EMERGENCY remains in effect, and may need extension as temperatures don't look to cool down anytime soon.

However, as we go through the afternoon, showers and storms should pop in some spots. Where they do form, one or two storms *MAY* be strong to severe; any storm could contain heavy rainfall with the moist airmass over our area, so keep this in mind if you live in a flood-prone area. Storms should mostly diminish after sunset.

More sunshine could lead to some storm development on Tuesday, as well. These would be scattered, diurnal (daytime fed) showers and storms, and would dissipate after sunset.

The best threat of rain appears to be late Wednesday into early Thursday.

~Jeremy Moses

The Heat Is On Still...

HEAT EMERGENCY still in effect for the City of Cincinnati through Monday

5:30 AM (As of 5 AM observations) - CVG 69°, Fair; Lunken 66°, Fog; Hamilton 68°, Fair; Wilmington 65°, Fair

The heat stays on across the area, and the result of this is continued risk for heat illnesses to those who are most vulnerable to the hot temperatures. Heat index values of 95° or higher are possible today and Monday in the city of Cincinnati, and less likely across northern Kentucky.

As we go through the day today look for mostly sunny skies, but a few clouds could form across the area later. There is no chance for rain today. Temperatures should reach 90 degrees.

For tonight, don't look for much if any relief especially from the city south as we get down to the upper 60s.

Monday looks okay if you like sunshine and hot summertime temperatures. The first official full day of summer on Tuesday still looks hot, too. Both days do have some chance of showers and storms, particularly late in the day, and highs will be in the lower 90s. I'm calling for 92 on Monday and 93 on Tuesday. (The city of Cincinnati may have to extend the heat emergency beyond Monday, at least, as heat indices could EASILY reach 100 degrees Tuesday with dewpoints in the lower 70s!)

The next best chance of showers and storms is probably on Wednesday.

~Jeremy Moses

Same Song and Dance - AGAIN

6:45 AM CVG 67°, Fog/Mist

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE UNTIL 8:00 AM WEDNESDAY

Severe thunderstorms developed for yet another day across the area. This makes day four of severe weather or flash flooding being reported SOMEWHERE in Indiana, Ohio or Kentucky.

Well, today look for it to be day 5... I know you're getting tired of it, and believe me, I'm about as tired of reporting it.

Showers and storms could develop at anytime after 2-3 PM, and once more could become severe and/or contain heavy rainfall. I CANNOT rule out any type of severe weather, however, look for damaging winds to be the biggest threat.

Tonight WILL be the last night of it...as the cold front that's hung around for four days will FINALLY push off to the southeast and AWAY from the Cincinnati area - which will finally allow you and anybody else that had damage to assess such...including, sadly, the folks at Solid Rock Church. That is where the "Touchdown Jesus" statue you would see along I-75 near Monroe burned to the ground last night, and all that is left is the skeleton metal frame. Along with that, it appears their amphitheater was partially destroyed.

In any case, Wednesday looks much better with a high in the middle 80s.

Thursday and Friday look to remain dry, too with highs approaching 90. We won't see a cooldown anytime soon...or at least in the next 3-4 days. In fact, if the humidity goes up again, look for heat advisories to be needed possibly by the end of the weekend.

Flood Threat Continues Today

7:30 AM CVG: 70°, Partly Cloudy

Yet more flooding developed yesterday across the area:

-- Butler County reported water over parts of Cincinnati-Brookville Road; flooding in Ross, Morgan and parts of Hanover Townships; a water rescue in the 2600 block of Ross-Millville Road

-- Colerain Township in Hamilton County: Flooding along part of Blanchetta Street; flooding near Royal Glen Apartment Complex; several evacuations

-- Independence area, Kenton County: Flash flooding in the areas flooded Wednesday

-- Clermont County: A few homes flooded in New Richmond; Flooding near Felicity

-- Brown County: Bullskin Creek flooded again, causing Dunbar Road to close at the same spot where two boys were swept to their deaths. (Both bodies, sadly, have now been recovered: Justin Devercelly's body was found last night at Meldahl Dam.)

-- Dearborn County: Flooding was reported near St. Leon.

Today, the Tri-State could see still more rain it doesn't need on wet soil that can't hold anything else. Up to 1.5" of rain MAY fall today. Just this week, Cincinnati's airport has received almost 4" of rain! That's just since Wednesday morning! Some locations have received more than that - another 1.5" of rain would push a few locales to as much as 5" for the weekend! We're going to be watching carefully all afternoon. The National Weather Service may need to yet AGAIN issue a Flash Flood Watch later today.

Stay with twitter.com/NKYWx for the latest.

Tragic News on That Brown County Search for Two

There is sad news to report on the search for two Brown County, Ohio boys.

One boy's body was found this morning around 11:00 AM, about 1.5 miles from the command post set up for the search. It's where the boys are thought to have entered the water.

Here's the story from Cincinnati CBS affiliate WKRC-TV 12.

A body found this morning near Smith's Landing in Brown County has been identified as 8 year-old Blake Devercelly.

Rescue crews recovered his body around 11:00 am in their search for two missing brothers along a rain swollen Bullskin Creek.

They were last seen heading down to check out the rising water in Brown County's Lewis Township Wednesday afternoon.

We're told the boys, 8 year-old Blake Devercelly and 11 year-old Justin Devercelly, went out to watch the creek rising, and that is the last time they were seen.

After resuming the search this morning, one body was found around 11:00 am about 1 1/2 miles from where the children disappeared.

The search continues for Justin.

Rescue workers searched by land and air for six hours Wednesday evening, but could not locate the boys.

The boys vanished near the creek along Dunbar Road. That's the south west portion of the county very near the Clermont County line. The boys are from Felicity, and were at their babysitter's house when they went to watch the rising creek.

Local 12 is at the search area and will closely monitor any new information on the rescue effort.

Flood Threat Update

6:00 PM: CVG 83°, Partly Cloudy, Heat Index 82°

Today was a VERY nice, sunny Thursday, after the rough Wednesday we had. (See the previous post for more details.)

Tonight expect clear skies and temperatures dropping into the lower 60s. It will be a great night for grilling out or any other activities you have planned.

For Friday, I expect clouds to increase and cannot rule out a few showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon. If we can destabilize the atmosphere enough then I cannot rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm or two. Our highs will reach the upper 80s and near 90 degrees.

The bigger, and more complex, problem comes Saturday. A vorticity maximum (in layman's terms, a disturbance in the atmosphere) will swing across the area. This could kick off more showers and storms; this is where the best threat for ANY severe thunderstorms across the Tri-State will be. Precipitable Water values of 1.75" to 2" are forecast by most of the computer forecast models - and that would result in flooding issues given what we saw yesterday, so keep that in mind if you live near a creek or stream, or in an area that flooded yesterday.

After that, it now looks as though we'll keep the threat of some showers or storms around into Monday, as we've seen that continuity I've been looking for in the computers - therefore we'll keep that chance around through Monday and then dry things out Tuesday except for the southern part of the forecast area.

-- Jeremy Moses

Dry Today, More Humid Tomorrow, More Flash Flooding Ahead?

5:00 AM CVG: 64°, Fair

It was a WILD ride across northern Kentucky Wednesday afternoon. Here's a few reports received:

-- Flooding closed the left lane, both directions on I-75/71 at US 42 in Florence.

-- Flooding closed a portion of Zig Zag Road, just off Kentucky State Route 18, between Florence and Burlington and a water rescue occurred in that same area when Limaburg Creek rose out of its banks.

-- High water blocked portions of Turkeyfoot, Bristow, and Stevenson roads in Kenton County. Banklick Creek came out of its banks in Independence, KY.

-- Two boys were reportedly swept away and are feared drowned in Brown County when Bullskin Creek flooded Wednesday afternoon.

All of this, from 2 to four inches of rain in a four hour time span across areas from Western Ripley County, Indiana, across Dearborn County, through extreme northern Kentucky, into southern Clermont County and ultimately into Central Brown County.

Now, we watch the waters slowly recede...and now our attention turns to the very next storm to the west.

Until it arrives, expect warm weather. Highs today will be around 84° and lows tonight in the lower to middle 60s.

Friday, we'll already begin to see the effects of that next storm, as a warm front lifts northbound across our area Friday afternoon. Then, Saturday a disturbance will move very slowly across the Tri-State. The direct result of both the warm front on Friday, and the disturbance on Saturday points to showers and thunderstorms becoming likely especially Saturday. Due to the already saturated ground across the areas where yesterday's rain fell... I expect that flash flooding is a distinct possibility on Saturday. You'll need to stay with Tri-State Weather Watch here on Twitter at NKYWx for the latest. Our highs on Friday will approach the 90 degree mark! It'll be HOT and HUMID...so take it easy out there.

Either way, right now it looks like things clear out Sunday and we should be okay through Tuesday of next week...although yesterday's 0z European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model, or ECMWF, did want to keep things wet in that time frame. I'm not buying it and apparently neither is NWS Wilmington, so I'll keep things dry through that time period. If I see indications this weekend that things will change, I'll put rain in the forecast but right now, I see nothing past Saturday to worry about.

Jeremy Moses

ALERT: Flooding Issues Across NKY

4:40 PM: CVG 71°, Light Rain, Thunder, Fog

Flooding problems are scattered across much of Northern Kentucky right now. I-75 at US 42 had the left lanes blocked both ways as of 4:30 PM...Kentucky Highway 18 was CLOSED at Zig Zag Road between Florence and Burlington due to high water...and Turkeyfoot Road was partially blocked due to high water in Kenton County.

For the next couple of hours expect heavy rain to move across southern Campbell and Clermont...central Brown...and north-central Adams Counties. This rain could drop an inch an hour, and cause flooding of low-lying areas. STAY ALERT AND STAY AWAY FROM FLOODWATERS.

Jeremy Moses